乌干达已经将工业化确定为实现独立、互相依存和可持续发展经济的一条重要途径，因为唯有这样才能创造就业和带动增长
文I罗纳德·卡托 （Ronald Kato） 乌干达《新愿景报》记者 翻译I 王晓波
●乌干达经济的状况：不断增加的挑战与机遇
●国家产业政策
●工业化开始向前迈进
●解决工业化发展的瓶颈问题
●能源开发
●面向投资者的工商产业园
●石油和天然气
●中国能够发挥的作用
根据联合国非洲经济委员会2017年发布的报告，乌干达的经济发展正处在十字路口。该报告认为，虽然乌干达在过去三十年里的发展记录令人瞩目，但一种普遍的感觉是目前的发展模式正在失去动力。2016年乌干达的经济增长是过去三十年中最低的，同时收入差距在增大，就业机会前景黯淡，而且其增长不具备足够的包容性。
乌干达过去三十年经济增长主要是靠服务业拉动的，而工业和制造业却没有得到发展。制造业增长乏力的一个后果就是它使得国家的整体经济更脆弱和缺乏灵活性。
现在乌干达已经将工业化确定为实现独立、互相依存和可持续发展经济的一条重要途径，因为唯有这样才能创造就业和带动增长。工业发展也成为了乌干达社会和经济发展规划，即“2040愿景”的重要组成部分。按照这一规划，乌干达期望其工业领域能在国内生产总值中占到31%的比重，而目前它的占比只有7%，远远低于东非共同体平均10%这一比例。
乌干达经济的状况：不断增加的挑战与机遇
乌干达有着强劲的经济增长和减贫记录。在从1990年到2010年的近二十年中，经济年平均增长一直保持在7%的幅度，是东非国家中表现最好的。但是，近年来增长的节奏却放慢了，过去四年平均增长率只有4.3%，低于地区平均增幅（见下表1），也没有达到国家发展计划（NDP）制定的目标，而同期邻国肯尼亚、坦桑尼亚和卢旺达却实现了高增长。
此外，人口发展趋势也对乌干达不利；全球逆风、干旱、南苏丹危机以及公共投资项目实施中信贷准入的减少和放缓都是造成乌干达2016年和2017年经济不景气的重要原因。
近一个时期，四个宏观层面长期存在的问题也对乌干达的经济产生了负面影响，它们分别是：贸易逆差上升、日益恶化的财政赤字、债务上升以及价格和货币的不稳定。联合国开发计划署（UNDP）指出，如果这些问题能够得到解决，乌干达的工业化进程就能积极向前发展，并有助于经济呈现出灵活性。
国家产业政策
2017年，乌干达总统穆塞韦尼宣布这一年国家将全面推进工业化进程。2008年乌干达曾颁布国家产业政策，制定了未来十年甚至更长时期内工业发展的战略方向。该产业政策旨在解决制约乌干达工业发展的关键因素并重点推进优先发展领域。
这项政策为乌干达转型成为一个现代化的工业国家奠定了基础，通过加工减少收割后的损失和增加出口高附加值的产品，特别是那些来自农业和矿产资源的产品。工业化还能够为创造就业、增加出口收入、拓宽税收渠道、提高人们的购买力、加强农业一体化、实现产品多样化和增强整体经济的生产效率和现代化的技术能力提供更为广阔的前景。
这项政策列举了制约工业发展的主要因素，它们是水力发电能力不足、交通基础设施薄弱和制度框架的不健全。
该政策将四项原则列为发展的前提，它们是：
1. 开发和利用国内自然资源型产业，比如石油、水泥和化肥工业；大力推进使用当地原材料的具有竞争力的产业。
2.发展农产品加工业，尤其侧重于食品加工；同时发展制造业，包括皮革和皮革制品、纺织品和服装、糖类、奶制品以及能够增值并且出口的产品。
3.发展以知识为基础的产业，比如，信息与通信技术、呼叫中心和生物制药，它们能够充分利用科学、技术和创新领域的前沿知识。
4. 培养和发展能够运用生产资料生产农具、建筑材料的制造者和家庭小手工业。
工业化开始向前迈进
穆塞韦尼总统在其2017年的新年讲话中说，乌干达的经济长期以来由于进口超过出口而受到很大的损失，导致了巨大的贸易逆差。他说，国家早就应该走大规模工业化的道路，一方面为本国市场生产所需的产品，另一方面也可以用于出口。
他说这届政府将致力于实现工业化发展，并且指出，“工业化是获得解放的工具，也是实现繁荣的手段。”
穆塞韦尼总统引用了中国的例子，他说中国出口到乌干达的产品价值8.75亿美元，而从乌干达进口的产品只有5470万美元。印度出口到乌干达的产品价值更是高达11.54亿美元，从乌干达的进口却只有2480万美元。他将贸易赤字视为本国财力和工作的大失血。
不过，马凯雷大学的经济学家弗莱德·穆穆萨博士却认为，贸易赤字还将继续存在下去，因为“乌干达的产业政策缺乏战略引领和思想体系。” 穆穆萨博士还是乌干达财政大臣的顾问，他指出该政策在构思和制定的过程中没有广泛咨询和征求行业利益相关人士的看法和意见，因此实施的效果很不理想。
他说，“制定政策很容易，但如果缺乏清晰的战略构想就失去了意义。在制定政策时必须将基础设施、能源和汇率等因素都考虑进去，而它们已经超出了工业部门本身的范围。”
解决工业化发展的瓶颈问题
2013年在日本召开了第五届非洲发展国际会议（TICAD），穆塞韦尼总统在会上的发言中列举了非洲国家，特别是乌干达，在发展进程中面临的一系列重大挑战，比如，基础设施发展不足，尤其是电力、铁路、公路、信息和通信技术，以及人力资源没有得到有效开发。
乌干达的电力是阻碍其工业化的主要瓶颈之一。2006年时由于受到电力严重不足的影响，导致国家为实现工业化所做的努力无法付诸实施。结果一些制造商迁移到了邻国肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚，因为那里的电力供应有保障，而且很便宜。
从2006年开始，乌干达已经在能源项目上投入了30多亿美元。2012年，耗资9亿美元的布贾加利水利枢纽工程正式开通。它为国家电网增加了250兆瓦的电力供应，使能源供应终于趋于稳定。后续又有几个小型水电站投入运营，导致能源供应出现过剩的现象。
根据乌干达电力发展有限公司（UEGCL）提供的数据，乌干达目前已装配的发电容量是大约862兆瓦，其中有100兆瓦来自重型燃料发电机，而有效需求只有600兆瓦，因此有200兆瓦属于过剩的容量。
不过当局认为过剩的部分在未来两年当经济完全复苏时可以被消化掉。乌干达电力经销商乌姆姆的首席执行官Selestino Babungi也说 ，产能过剩的现象不会持续太久。
他解释说，“供应应当先于需求做好准备。事实上，甚至产业领域的投资商也会在意未来五年基础设施的供应是否充足。因此如果国家的电力供应不足的话，工业就无法发展起来。”
国际货币基金组织预测乌干达的经济在2020年时将恢复到2011年前7%的增长水平。
经济学家穆穆萨指出，即使经济开始复苏，如果不设法弥补其在技术方面的欠缺，乌干达仍无法全面实现工业化。
他进而补充说，“技能短缺是一个要害问题，它严重影响了我们向工业化的发展。我们没有足够的焊接工、机械操作人员和技术人员。我们还需要培育本地产业，实现芝麻、咖啡和铁矿石这些原材料的增值。我们也应当让汽车制造商能够生产出汽车，并且集中精力做自己能做的事情。”
能源开发
虽然目前出现了电力供应过剩的现象，但乌干达仍急需推进更多的电力项目。现在中部和北部的两个水电站的建设已接近完工。
伊辛巴（183兆瓦）和卡鲁马（600兆瓦）这两个水电站分别是由中国水利电力对外有限公司和中国水电建设集团帮助建设的，耗资约30亿美元，中国进出口银行（EXIM）提供了资金援助。它们投入运营后能够使乌干达的装机容量达到1683兆瓦。
随着对工业化和农业加工的重新推进，政府确信过剩的能源供应很快会得到利用。
工业对发电量的消耗占到70%。因此当更多的工业产业发展起来时，对电力的有效需求会成倍地增长。政府已经针对一些即将开工的项目进行了需求预测，它们中包括：标准轨距铁路、纳曼威工业园、坎帕拉轻轨、伊甘加工业园、乌苏鲁磷肥厂以及不断发展壮大的城市化规模。
预计乌干达石油储量丰富的艾伯丁地区也将会有更多的电力需求。运输石油到坦桑尼亚坦噶港的输油管道将是世界上最大的电加热管道之一。此外，炼油厂、霍马国际机场和霍马工业园也都位于该产油区。
面向投资者的工商产业园
乌干达负责投资的乌干达投资管理局刚刚完成一项工作，即规划出该国在产业发展方面具有潜在比较优势的地区。
投资管理局已经决定开启自动化模式来减少审批过程中的繁文缛节。
筹划中的产业园有：坎帕拉工商产业园（KIBP），它占地2200英亩，距离首都很近。卢日拉工商产业园、Bweyogerere工业区、金贾工商产业园、卡塞斯工商产业园、索罗蒂工商产业园、姆巴拉拉中小企业产业园、喀什哈里农业园区和马布尔工商产业园。
为了进一步吸引投资，乌干达总统穆塞韦尼已经命令财政部计划委员会做出规划，并根据自然资源的条件在大城市创建工业园区。
计划委员会已经将乌干达的西北地区确定为尼罗河流域蜂蜜、水果、咖啡加工、纺织和鱼类加工的枢纽。朗戈的中北部地区则为投资者划定为纺织、木薯加工及油籽加工的区域。
石油和天然气
石油行业的新发展预计将为乌干达经济带来新的动力。
今年四月，乌干达与国际财团签署了协议，将在霍马中西部地区建一座被搁置了很久的炼油厂。该炼油厂价值40亿美元，每天可以加工6万桶原油。
预计到2020年，在石油和天然气方面的投资有望为乌干达的经济增加100多亿美元的收入。
乌干达目前的石油储量是65亿桶，还可以再开采17亿桶。
去年，乌干达总统穆塞韦尼和坦桑尼亚总统约翰·蓬贝·马古富力共同宣布启动从乌干达霍马到坦桑尼亚位于印度洋的海港城市坦噶的原油管道建设。
这条1445公里长的东非原油管道（EACOP）价值35.5亿美元，一旦投入使用后，每天可以运送21.6万桶原油。它将是世界上最长的电加热原油管道。
有关当局说该管道的建设有望在2018年初开始，预计需要三年的时间建成，未来可以提供6000到10000个就业机会。石油业务的激增不仅可以创造就业，也能提高该产油区人民的收入水平。
中国海洋石油总公司（CNOOC）是获准钻探乌干达石油的公司之一。
乌干达政府已经在利用石油收益为基础设施项目、人类发展倡议和实现经济多样化发展提供资金。石油产业还可以带动诸如石油化工和物流等相关行业的发展。
中国能够发挥的作用
自从中国与乌干达的关系上升到战略伙伴关系的高度后，中国已成为乌干达最重要的发展合作伙伴。
几乎乌干达所有重大基础设施项目都得到了中国政府的资金支持。这其中包括卡鲁马和伊姆巴水电站大坝和坎帕拉—恩德培高速公路。这些项目需要投入的资金超过了25亿美元。
乌干达还派遣官员到中国学习中国工业化的经验。中国在乌干达各个工业园区也开始展开业务，其中之一就是位于乌干达中部的辽沈工业园，它拥有的面积达到5.2平方英里，主要从事陶瓷制造和食品加工。
穆穆萨认为乌干达应当更充分地利用与中国的关系。他特别强调说，“我们应当增加向中国的出口，减少从中国的进口。”（编辑：杨海霞）
英文版：
Uganda banks on Industries, Oil and china for economic independence
By Ronald Kato, Reporter of Uganda New Vision
The development of the Ugandan economy is at a crossroads, warns a 2017 report by the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. The report argues that while the country’s growth record over the last 30 years has been impressive, there is a pervasive feeling that the current paradigm is running out of steam. In 2016, Uganda registered the lowest rate of economic growth in the last 30 years. Income inequality has risen, and job creation has been lackluster. As a consequence, growth has not been sufficiently inclusive.
Much of the growth for the Ugandan economy in the last thirty years has been driven by the services sector at the expense of the industrial and manufacturing sectors. One of the consequences of the weak growth of the manufacturing sector is that it has made the economy more vulnerable and less resilient.
Uganda has identified industrialization as one of the avenues to build an independent, inter-dependent and sustainable economy that creates jobs and growth. Industrial sector development also features prominently in Uganda’s social and economic development plan known as ‘Vision 2040’. According to the plan, Uganda seeks to have industry contribute 31% to her GDP. The sector contributes only 7% currently, way below the East African community average of 10% skewed in favour of neighbors Kenya.
An overview of the state of the Ugandan economy: Growing challenges, opportunities
Uganda has a strong record of economic growth and poverty reduction. Over a period of approximately 20 years, from the 1990s until around 2010, the average annual rate of economic growth stood at around 7 percent, one of best performances in Eastern Africa. However, in recent years, the rate of expansion has slowed down. The average growth rate of 4.3 percent over the past four years is below the regional average (Figure 1), the high growth rates recorded by neighboring Kenya, Tanzania and Rwanda and also below the target of 7.2 percent for the entire period of the concluded.
National Development Plan (NDPI).
In addition, demographic trends are not favourable to
Uganda. Global headwinds, drought conditions, the crisis in South Sudan, reduction in access to credit and slowdown in the implementation of public investment projects are some of the major reasons for the sluggish growth recorded in 2016 and early 2017.
Currently, there are four longer-term macroeconomic problems negatively impacting upon the performance of the economy, namely; a rising trade deficit, a deteriorating fiscal deficit, rising debt and price/currency instability. If solved, warns the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), they would result in a resilient economy and positively impact Uganda’s industrialization push.
The National Industrial Policy
In 2017, Uganda’s president Yoweri Museveni declared what he called a year of ‘mass industrialization’. Launched in 2008, The National Industrial Policy set out the strategic direction for industrial development in Uganda for the next ten years and beyond. The policy sought to address the constraints as well as priorities regarded as key to industrial development in Uganda.
The policy set the ground for transforming Uganda into a modern and Industrial Country through, among other things; adding value by processing to reduce post-harvest losses and by increasing exports of higher value products, especially from agricultural and mineral resources. Industrialization also offers greater prospects for increased employment, more export earnings, wider tax base, increased purchasing power, increased integration with Agriculture, product diversification, greater efficiency, and technical skills for modernization and higher productivity throughout the whole economy.
The policy also identifies insufficient hydro electric power, poor transport infrastructure and weak institutional frame work as binding constraints for industrial development.
The policy is premised on four principles, which include:
1. Exploiting and developing natural domestic resource- based industries such as petroleum, cement, and fertilizer industries; and promoting competitive industries that use local raw materials.
2. Agro-processing; focusing on food processing, leather and leather products, textiles and garments, sugar, dairy products, and value addition in niche exports.
3. Knowledge-based industries such as: ICT, call centres, and pharmaceuticals that exploit knowledge in science, technology and innovation.
4. Engineering for capital goods, agricultural implements, construction materials, and fabrication / Jua Kali operations.
Industrialization is liberating
In his 2017 new year’s address, President Museveni said Uganda’s economy had long suffered due to importing more than what it exports to other countries, resulting in a huge negative balance of trade. He said that it was high time the country embarked on mass industrialization to produce for the local market and for export.
He said his government would embark on mass industrialisation, noting that “industrialisation is an instrument of liberation and a means of achieving prosperity.”
Museveni cited China, which he said exports to Uganda goods worth US$875 million dollars while importing from Uganda goods worth US$54.7 million dollars and India which exports to Uganda goods worth US$1.154 billion while Uganda only exports to India goods worth US$24.8 million. He termed the trade deficit as a hemorrhage of both money and jobs.
However, Dr. Fred Muhumuza, an economist with Makerere University reasons that the trade deficit will continue because “Uganda’s industrial policy lacks a strategy and ideology”. Muhumuza who also worked as an advisor to Uganda’s minister for Finance reasons that the policy was conceived without widely consulting industry stakeholders, hence its poor performance.
“You can have an industrial policy but it is useless without a clear strategy. You need to factor in things such as infrastructure, energy and exchange rates, it is bigger than the ministry for industry”, Muhumuza said.
Addressing the bottlenecks to industrialization
While speaking at the fifth International Conference on African development (TICAD) in Japan in 2013, Museveni listed inadequate development of the infrastructure, especially electricity, the railways, the roads, ICT and an undeveloped human resource as some of the challenges hindering Africa and indeed Uganda from developing.
Uganda identified electricity as one of the major bottlenecks to industrialization. The country’s efforts to industrialize took a dive in 2006 when the country was hit by a major power shortage. As a result, some manufacturers moved to neighbors Kenya and Tanzania to take advantage of reliable and cheaper power.
Since 2006, Uganda has invested over $3bn in energy projects. In 2012, the $900m Bujagali hydro project was switched on. It added 250MW to the national grid, bringing much needed stability to energy supply. The subsequent commissioning of several mini hydro power plants led to surplus energy being generated.
According to Uganda Electricity Generation Company Limited (UEGCL), the generators of Uganda’s electricity, Uganda’s installed generation capacity is currently about 862MW – including 100MW from the heavy fuel generators – and effective demand is just short of 600MW. The total redundancy is estimated at about 200MW.
Authorities however believe the surplus will be swallowed up in the next two years when the economy makes a full recovery. Selestino Babungi, the Chief Executive Officer of UMEME, the electricity distributors in Uganda says the surplus will not last a long time.
“Supply should move ahead of demand. In fact, infrastructure, even if it is an industrial investor, they will look at whether there is enough supply for the next five years. Otherwise, no industries will set-up if a country does not have enough power,” he explained.
The International Monetary Fund projects that Uganda’s economy will return to the pre-2011 growth rate of 7% in 2020.
Muhumuza, an economist notes that even with the economy making a rebounder, Uganda may not fully industrialize without fixing its skills gap.
“There’s a critical skills shortage to fully power our industrialize drive. Do we enough welders, machine operators or technicians? We also need to nurture local industries, add value to our sesame, coffee and iron ore. We need to let car makers make cars and concentrate on what we can do”, Muhumuza added.
Generate More Power
Even with an unutilized surplus, Uganda is pressing ahead with more power projects. Currently, two hydro power stations are nearing completion in the central and north of the country.
Isimba (183MW) and Karuma (600MMW) are being built by China Water and Electric and Sino hydro respectively at a cost of around $3bn with financing coming from the Export and Import (EXIM) bank of China. Once on board, the two projects will increase Uganda’s installed capacity to 1,683MW.
With a renewed push for industrialization and and agro-processing, government is convinced that the surplus power will be scooped up.
Industries consume almost 70 per cent of the generated power. So when more industries come on board, effective demand will grow exponentially. The government has already lined several demand projections based on the projects that will come on board. Some of those include the Standard Gauge Railway, Namanve Industrial Park, Kampala Light Rail, Iganga Industrial Park, the Osukuru Phosphate Fertilizer Factory and increasing urbanization.
More power is also expected to be consumed by projects in Uganda’s oil rich Albertine region. The oil pipeline to ship oil to the Tanzanian port of Tanga will be the largest electrically heated pipeline in the world is one of those projects. The others are the oil refinery, Hoima international airport and Hoima industrial park, all located in the oil belt.
Industrial and business parks for investors
Uganda Investment Authority, Uganda’s agency in charge of investments has just finished a project to map the country’s industrial potential based on the comparative advantage regions enjoy over others.
The authority has embraced an automation drive to cut red tape.
Some of the industrial parks include the Kampala Industrial and Business Park (KIBP), a 2,200 acre expanse of land close to the capital, Luzira Industrial and Business Park, Bweyogerere Industrial Estate, Jinja Industrial and Business Park, Kasese Industrial and Business Park, Soroti Industrial and Business Park, Mbarara SME Park, Kashari Agricultural Park and Mbale Industrial and Business Park.
To further drive investment, Uganda’s president Yoweri Museveni has ordered the planning commission of the ministry of Finance to plan and create industrial parks in the major cities based on natural resources.
The commission has identified the northwestern region of the country as a hub for honey, fruits, coffee processing, textiles and fish processing in the Nile Valley. The mid-northern region of Lango has been set aside for investors in textiles, cassava processing, and oil seeds processing.
Oil and Gas
New developments in the oil sector are expected to breathe new impetus in Uganda’s economy.
In April, Uganda signed an agreement with an international consortium to build a long delayed refinery in the mid-western district of Hoima. The refinery, valued at $4bn will have the capacity to process 60,000 barrels of crude oil a day.
Investments in the oil and gas sector are expected to add over $10bn to the Uganda’s economy by 2020.
Uganda's current oil reserves stand at 6.5 billion barrels with 1.7 billion recoverable from the ground.
Last year, Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni and Tanzania’s John Pombe Magufuli launched the construction of a crude oil pipeline from Hoima in Uganda to Tanzania's Indian Ocean seaport of Tanga.
The 1,445 kilometre East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) worth $3.55b will be able to transport 216,000 barrels of oil per day once the project starts its operation. It will be the world's longest electrically heated crude oil pipeline.
Authorities said construction of the EACOP is expected to commence early 2018, and is projected to take 36 months with the prospect of creating between 6,000 and 10,000 jobs. A surge in oil activity is expected to create jobs and grow incomes of people located in the oil belt.
Chinese owned China National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC) is one of the companies licensed to drill Uganda’s oil.
Uganda’s government is already using oil proceeds to fund infrastructure projects, human development initiatives and efforts to diversify the economy. The oil sector is also expected to spur related industries such as petro-chemical engineering and logistics.
The role of China
Since the elevation of China-Uganda ties to a strategic partnership, China has become Uganda’s most important development partner.
Nearly all the major infrastructure projects in the country are being undertaken with financial support from the Chinese government. Some of those projects include the Karuma and Isimba hydro power dams, and the Kampala-Entebbe expressway. The projects cost over $2.5bn.
Uganda has also sent officials to China to learn from the country’s industrialization experience. The Chinese have also opened industrial parks in various parts of Uganda. One of them is the Liao Shen industrial park found in central Uganda. The park, situated on 5.2 square miles is engaged in ceramics manufacturing and food processing.
Muhumuza says Uganda should seek to leverage more from its ties with China. “We should export more to China and import less”, he stressed.
Last year, Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni and Tanzania’s John Pombe Magufuli launched the construction of a crude oil pipeline from Hoima in Uganda to Tanzania's Indian Ocean seaport of Tanga.