西巴尔干——欧洲最后一个天然气增长市场？

●西巴尔干六国，输出欧洲绿色新政的试验田

●能源共同体是否为煤炭共同体？

●天然气的作用

2020年12月，欧盟委员会高级代表暨睦邻和扩盟事务专员奥利弗·瓦尔赫利在欧盟理事会会议上表示，欧盟希望借助“南部天然气走廊”（连接阿塞拜疆和东南欧的天然气路线）减少该地区对俄罗斯能源进口的依赖。

经过近20年的共同努力，在2020年末的几个小时里，第一批来自阿塞拜疆的天然气终于输送至巴尔干地区。但这是否为时已晚？

2019年底，乌苏拉·冯德莱恩出任欧盟委员会主席时，就提出要实施“欧盟绿色新政”，旨在带领欧盟实现碳中和。

2019年7月欧盟—西巴尔干波兹南峰会之后，为加强区域与欧盟的联系，欧盟承诺在《欧洲绿色协议》框架下，制定《西巴尔干绿色议程》。鉴于西巴尔干六国（包括阿尔巴尼亚、波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那、科索沃、黑山、北马其顿和塞尔维亚）能源领域面临的挑战，天然气在这个议程中的作用将至关重要。文章将进一步探讨各国在立法、市场治理、能源结构以及能源匮乏挑战方面存在的众多差异。

西巴尔干六国，输出欧洲绿色新政的试验田

欧盟（EU）作为全球气候政策和行动的领导者，明确承诺通过欧洲绿色新政，以身作则，以及利用外交、贸易和发展合作来推动气候行动。但目前欧盟27个成员国的二氧化碳排放量还不到全球的10%，到2030年之前，欧盟单方面的气候行动不仅将会是徒劳的，而且还将牵连甚广，甚至会影响欧洲的经济竞争力。

欧洲能源共同体框架内的国家，包括西巴尔干，可以作为欧盟对外“输出”欧洲绿色新政目标和行动的试验田。维也纳能源共同体秘书处主任珍妮丝·科帕奇认为，“ 欧盟和缔约方之间甚至没有认真讨论过二氧化碳的共同减排目标，更不用说如何执行《排放交易体系指令》”。他认为，多年来，地区和国家层面的低碳化工作滞后，“此后在本已困难的社会经济环境中，改革的力度须至少翻一倍”。

在西巴尔干六国中，固体燃料一直是能源生产的主要来源。2017年，六国中有四个国家以固体燃料为主要能源产出，其中科索沃的固体燃料能源占比近乎80%。据欧盟统计局2019年数据显示，西巴尔干六国成员国的能源强度也非常高，至少是欧盟28国的2倍，而塞尔维亚和科索沃更是近乎4倍，波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那则略超4倍。这一统计数据的“积极”一面在于，西巴尔干六国对能源进口的依赖程度普遍低于欧盟28国。

完全遵守欧洲能源法规对能源行业和社会民生来说都可能是困难的。针对能源匮乏的分析数据显示，欧盟和西巴尔干六国之间存在着巨大的能源差异。尽管欧盟家庭的天然气使用量占其总消费量的35%，但西巴尔干六国家庭的天然气消费占比仅为3%。同时，西巴尔干六国的生物质能使用量占国内能源消费的45%，而在欧盟，其比例仅为15%。该分析还指出，西巴尔干地区67%以上的家庭仍在使用固体燃料或木材燃料取暖。

⬆ 图1  2017年能源供应总量（%）(资料来源：欧盟统计局)

据欧洲能源共同体秘书处2019年发布的报告《能源共同体缔约方天然气传输系统运营商的透明度——现状审查》显示，2017年，在六国的能源供应总量中，天然气总体份额为8.3%，占比最大的则是塞尔维亚，超过13%。阿尔巴尼亚目前没有发达的天然气市场，也没有接入国际天然气网络。科索沃缺少可运作的天然气领域，天然气的市场发展以及与邻国互联互通方面均没有取得明显进展。当前，黑山也完全没有天然气市场。

在所有利益攸关方的共同努力下，欧洲能源共同体部长理事会于2011年决议制定首个能源战略——《能源共同体能源战略》。该能源战略计划在现有天然气市场（波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那、北马其顿和塞尔维亚）建立新的天然气发电厂，以及在西巴尔干建设一个所谓的“天然气走廊”。在2020年的目标中，天然气走廊被认为是实现低碳化的手段之一（与提升能源效率和达成可再生能源目标并列）。经当时评估，这种“低排放/可持续方案”从2012年至2030年期间的成本为1300亿欧元。该战略指明，天然气走廊必须依靠区域性的努力才能实现，而非单一缔约方能够有效达成。

作为一个天然气净进口国，西巴尔干希望通过落实“南部天然气走廊”和东南欧垂直天然气走廊，从而实现能源供应多样化。2020年11月中旬，横跨希腊、阿尔巴尼亚、亚得里亚海和意大利，长达878公里的天然气运输系统——跨亚得里亚海管道(TAP)开始商业运营并输送天然气，这是向该目标的迈出的一大步。跨亚得里亚海管道将从阿塞拜疆向欧洲多个市场输送100亿立方米/年的天然气。

然而，考虑到欧盟近期对完全非化石能源的推广，对于西巴尔干六国来说，最大的问题是天然气是否仍然被认为是实现低碳化的有效途径。

总之，东南欧天然气的未来有两种可能：一是成为真正的过渡燃料，取代广泛使用的煤炭和固体生物质能，二是完全被可再生能源替代。鉴于西巴尔干匮乏的能源以及集中式的电力生产模式，前者更有可能。

首先要讨论的是能否在现有或新建发电厂中实现以天然气取代煤炭作为发电燃料。如果碳的价格包含在整个区域的能源成本中，这也不失为一个可行方案。

第二，在某些工业应用上，可以从替代燃料转向天然气。包括可以在一些工业场所进行分布式热电联产。

最后同样重要的是，尤其对于西巴尔干的大城市而言，天然气也具备转变住宅和商业能源消费结构的潜力。

结论

欧盟委员会向西巴尔干国家输出欧洲绿色新政面临着双重挑战。首先，欧盟必须借此表明——通过外交努力可以与邻国达成可行的低碳协议。这项协议必须充分考虑该地区面临的所有经济挑战，才有可能取得成功。

第二项挑战是如何落实西巴尔干能源领域转型所需的部分投资，特别是如何推动天然气成为各国的低碳化选择。在西欧，可以氢气或沼气取代天然气，但在西巴尔干地区，大部分住宅供暖的能源还来自固体化石燃料和生物质能，两者情况迥然不同。

The Western Balkans – the Last Growing Gas Market in Europe?

In December 2020, a senior representative of the European Commission,
Olivér Várhelyi – Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement,
stated  that the EU wants to see the Southern Gas Corridor (a gas route
connecting Azerbaijan to Southeast Europe) reducing the region’s
dependence on Russian imports. After almost two decades of concentrated
efforts, this is finally happening with the first Azeri gas molecules
reached the Balkans in the final hours of 2020. But is it too late?

A year earlier, in the end of 2019, the newly elected President of the
European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, presented her Commission’s
view for a European Green Deal, with a target to lead the European Union
to carbon neutrality. 

As a result of ongoing efforts, following the Poznan Summit in July 2019,
the EU is committed to introduce a Green Agenda for the Western Balkans,
mirroring the European Green Deal.  The role of natural gas in this
“mini-deal” would be crucial, given the existing challenges of the
energy sectors in the six Western Balkans countries: Albania, Bosnia and
Herzegovina, Kosovo*, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia (WB6). As
we will explore further below, there are many differences in terms of
legislation, markets governance, and energy, as well as energy poverty
challenges4.

WB6 as a Proving Ground for Exporting the European Green Deal

Even if the EU is a global climate policy & action leader, currently its
27 member states are responsible for less than 10% of the global CO2
emissions. The EU has committed to “lead by example, through the
European Green Deal” as well as to “using diplomacy, trade and
development cooperation to advance climate action.”  Much is at stake
here – a solitary climate action by the EU in the period until 2030
would not only prove futile but would also affect the European economic
competitiveness.

The countries within the Energy Community framework, including the Western
Balkans, may be a proving ground for “exporting” the European Green Deal
goals and actions outside the EU. Janez Kopač, the Director of the
Energy Community Secretariat in Vienna, has commented  that, “a common
target for the reduction of CO2 emissions, let alone the incorporation
of the Emission Trading Scheme Directive, has not even been seriously
discussed [between the EU and the Contracting Parties].” He considers
that after years with low levels of decarbonization imperative on
regional and national levels, “the reform efforts in an already
difficult social-economic environment would have to be doubled or more.”

Is the Energy Community a Coal Community?

In the WB6 countries solid fuels have been the main source of primary
energy production. In 2017, almost 80% of Kosovo’s energy production was
from solid fuels, and this was also the main source of primary energy
production in four of the WB6 countries. There is also a high energy
intensity in the enlargement countries. It is at least double that in
the EU-28, reaching nearly four times as high in Serbia and Kosovo and
slightly exceeding four times as high in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The
“positive” side of this statistics is that enlargement countries are
generally less dependent on energy imports than the EU-28.  

Full compliance with European energy regulations may be painful for both the
energy sector and the population. Data from energy poverty analyses
show that there is a great discrepancy between the EU and WB6. While EU
households’ use of gas is 35% of their total consumption, the share in
the WB6 households’ consumption is only 3%. At the same time, biomass
use in the WB6 holds 45% of the domestic consumption of energy, while in
the EU its share is only 15%.  The same report notes that more than 67%
of all households in the region use solid fuels or fuel wood for
heating.

⬆ Figure 1. Total energy supply, 2017, in %(Source: Eurostat (2019) Simplified energy balances [nrg_bal_s])

The Role of Natural Gas

As seen in Figure 1 above, natural gas still has a small share of WB6
countries’ energy balances. In the combined total energy supply of
Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and
Serbia it had a share of 8.3% in 2017. The largest share (above 13%)
was in Serbia. Albania does not have a developed gas market at present
and is not connected to international gas networks. Kosovo has no
functional gas sector and has not achieved notable progress in the
development of a gas market and interconnection with neighbors. At
present, no gas market exists in Montenegro as well. 

The Energy Community Ministerial Council has decided in 2011 to prepare its
first Energy Strategy, in a joint effort of all its stakeholders.  The
Energy Strategy planned for new gas-fired power plants in existing gas
markets (Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia and Serbia). The plan
also included the construction of a so-called “gas ring” in the Western
Balkans. The gas ring was considered in the 2020 goals as one of the
means to decarbonize (in addition to energy efficiency and renewables
targets achievement). The cost of this scenario, called “low
emissions/sustainable scenario”, was evaluated at the time to be 130
billion euro for the period 2012 to 2030. The gas ring, the Strategy
said, could not be effectively implemented by a single Contracting Party
and requires a regional approach if it is to be realized.

As a net importer of natural gas, the region is looking toward broader
diversification of supplies, namely through the realization of the
Southern Gas Corridor and the vertical gas corridor in Southeast Europe.
A big step forward is the actual start of gas deliveries through the
Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), an 878-km gas transportation system
crossing Greece, Albania, the Adriatic Sea and Italy, which began
commercial operations in mid-November 2020. TAP will transport 10 bcm/a
of new gas supplies from Azerbaijan to multiple markets in Europe.

However, the big question for the WB6 countries is whether or not natural gas
would be still considered a bridge fuel to decarbonization – given the
recent developments in the EU, related to the promotion only of
non-fossil energy sources.
In general, there are two possibilities
for the future of gas in Southeast Europe – either it will become a real
transition fuel and will replace widely used coal and solid biomass, or
the gas step would be missed altogether and there will be a
leapfrogging to renewables. Energy poverty in the region, combined with
the centralized electricity production model, may lead to the former.

The first options to be explored are replacing coal as a fuel for
electricity production – at existing or new power plants. If the price
of carbon is included in the energy costs across the region, this is a
viable option to explore.

Second, industrial consumption may switch from alternative fuels to natural gas
for some of the industrial applications. This includes the option for
distributed generation of combined heat and power at industrial
locations.

And last, but not least, gas has a potential to transform residential and
commercial energy consumption as well, especially in the biggest cities
across the region.

Conclusion

The European Commission has a double challenge with the export of the
European Green Deal to the Western Balkans countries. First – it has to
show, that a diplomatic effort would result in a viable low-carbon deal
with the closest neighbors of the EU. This deal would have to account
for all the economic challenges within the region in order to be
successful.

A second challenge would be to secure part of the needed investment for
transforming the energy sector of the Western Balkans, especially when
it comes to promoting natural gas as a low(er) carbon option. It is one
thing to consider replacing it with hydrogen or biogas in Western
Europe, but quite another, when most of the energy for residential
heating comes from solid fossil fuels and biomass – as in the Western
Balkans.

1.European Commission (2020) EU-Azerbaijan Cooperation Council, 18
December 2020,
https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/news_corner/news/eu-azerbaijan-cooperation-council-18-december-2020_en
(checked on 30.12.2020)

2.European Commission (2019) Press remarks by President von der Leyen on the
occasion of the adoption of the European Green Deal Communication,
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_19_6749
(checked on 30.12.2020)

3.European Commission (2019) Western Balkans Summit in Poznań: strengthening links
within the region and with the EU,
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_19_3669
(checked on 30.12.2020)

4.A
longer version of this report was published in 2020: Georgiev, A.
(2020) Natural Gas in the Western Balkans in the Framework of the Future
Energy Community Goals for 2030, in Energy and Climate Diplomacy, BDI,
Bulgaria, ISBN 978-619-7200-19-5

5.European Commission (2019) A European Green Deal,
https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal_en
(checked on 30.12.2020)

6.Kopač, J. (2019) The burden of coal at the doorstep of the Energy Union,
Euractiv,

The burden of coal at the doorstep of the Energy Union

(checked on 30.12.2020)

7.Eurostat (2019) Enlargement countries – energy statistics,
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Enlargement_countries_-_energy_statistics
(checked on 13.12.2019)

8.RES Foundation (2018) Energy poverty in the Western Balkans – Presentation
at “Sustainability Forum of the Energy Community”, Vienna, 22 June 2018

9.Energy Community Secretariat (2019) Transparency of gas transmission system
operators in the Energy Community Contracting Parties – Status Review

10.Energy Community Secretariat (2012) Energy Strategy of the Energy Communityg

 编辑 | 张   梅

  翻译 | 钟锦秀

 设计 | 大   米