东南欧脱碳路线图——电力转型

东南欧囊括巴尔干半岛上的10个国家，包括欧盟预备成员国，即西巴尔干五国——阿尔巴尼亚、波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那、黑山、北马其顿和塞尔维亚以及科索沃地区，还包括四个欧盟成员国——保加利亚、克罗地亚、希腊和罗马尼亚。西巴尔干五国也是欧洲能源共同体的成员国。

东南欧国家的能源系统多由老旧、高排放的发电厂组成，能源供应主要由国有企业垄断。褐煤在地区能源供给中扮演重要角色，东南欧地区的褐煤生产量逼近德国，后者是欧盟最大的褐煤生产国。东南欧的电力网络相互联系紧密，本文是对东南欧各国能源产业结构的概述。

科索沃地区是东南欧对褐煤依赖度最强的地区，97%的发电量来源于褐煤。阿尔巴尼亚是东南欧唯一一个没有燃煤发电厂的国家，几乎完全依赖水力发电。北马其顿发电量大多来源于褐煤，占总发电量的65%-70%。希腊大约有50%的电力来源于硬煤和褐煤，30% 来源于天然气，剩下的20%来源于水能、风能和太阳能。太阳能和风能在东南欧地区发挥的作用非常小。克罗地亚的能源结构中有50%的电力来源于水能，其余来源于核能、煤炭、风能和太阳能。塞尔维亚和北马其顿类似，逾60%电力来源于煤炭，其余主要来源于水能。黑山的电力主要来源于水能，30%来源于煤炭。保加利亚和罗马尼亚的能源结构中含有核能，硬煤和褐煤是保加利亚的主要发电来源，罗马尼亚主要依靠水力发电。波黑的电力主要来源于煤炭和水能，水能大约占总发电量的20%。

东南欧地区大约有40%的家庭无力购电，该地区能源强度高（是欧盟平均值的3到4倍），空气污染严重。目前，东南欧国家正处在能源转型的交叉路口，面临如何替换老旧燃煤发电厂的问题。在区域层面开发太阳能、风能等可再生能源并提高传统能源能效的前景十分宽广。

东南欧面临的一项重大挑战便是在2030年末以前替换掉30%的现有化石燃料发电装机容量，2050年之前替换掉95%以上。实现这一目标需要政府完善能源政策框架，鼓励投资者前来投资，填补东南欧新能源项目的空白，同时为东南欧电力行业能源转型长远战略的实施提供契机。

要想在未来几年替换掉东南欧国家的多数老旧发电厂，东南欧国家需要克服可负担性、能源安全、去碳化等方面的挑战。有以下几个能力建设方案可供采纳。
为了方便评估不同政策主张的效果，设立以下三种情景：

1. “无脱碳目标”情景。意味着一切照旧。
2.“延迟脱碳”情景。采用官方批准的未来化石燃料投资计划，2035年以后进行方向性政策变革。
3.“去碳化”情景。欧盟严格的监管制度和在可再生能源技术方面的大量投资将产生巨大影响。

三种情景下，二氧化碳减排目标和转型后的化石燃料装机容量是不同的。影响二氧化碳减排的三个变量当中，控制传统能源能效和核能两个变量，只假定可再生能源装机容量是实现减排目标的唯一变量。可再生能源装机容量在不同国家和不同技术种类的分布取决于每个国家特定的地理气候条件。

在“无脱碳目标”情景下，国家继续沿用现有的能源政策，不采纳欧盟和西巴尔干的二氧化碳减排目标。尽管并不设置减排目标，电力生产商仍需支付二氧化碳排放价格。这一情景假定各国实现了2020年的可再生能源指标，并在2021年到2025年之间逐步取消对可再生能源的政策支持。

在“延迟脱碳”情景下，国家继续执行现有的能源政策，加大化石燃料投入力度，并于2035年之后转变政策方向，提高可再生能源的装机容量。

在“去碳化”情景下，最终东南欧全部剩余煤炭发电厂只会集中在三个国家——波黑、保加利亚和希腊。

三种情景的共同点在于，在碳排价格不断提升和可再生技术应用成本不断下跌的驱动下，国家能源结构均会经历从化石燃料向可再生能源的转型。

欧盟28国和西巴尔干6国设立的94%的去碳化目标意味着东南欧的电力产业的去碳化程度要高于欧洲平均水平。到了2050年，在“延迟脱碳”和“去碳化”的情景下，东南欧的二氧化碳减排量要分别达到20世纪90年代的95.9%和98.7%。之所以能够实现这么大的降幅，原因在于东南欧发展可再生能源发电有相对优势，尽管东南欧的加权平均资本成本要高于欧盟平均值。这种相对优势主要体现在水力发电和太阳能领域。模拟数据显示，即便是在“无脱碳目标”情景下，到了2050年国家的减排幅度也能达到91%，碳排放价格的提升会使电力生产商自发调整能源结构。

上文描述的东南欧电力系统的调整会导致电力市场发生巨大变动。

三种情景都会导致能源领域投资规模的大幅提升，原因在于过去数十年，东南欧的能源板块一直都不是投资热门，目前能源领域投资体量基数小，未来增长空间较大。不过新增投资主要发生在“延迟脱碳”和“去碳化”情景下，产生于电力行业从高碳排放型燃煤（煤炭、褐煤）发电向可再生能源发电的转型过程中。在“延迟脱碳”和“无脱碳目标”情景下，2018年到2030年期间修建的燃煤（煤炭、褐煤）发电厂（根据区域官方能源政策装机容量大约共计18-20吉瓦）将会闲置，沉没成本高达数十亿，远远高于“去碳化”情景下的沉没成本，因为后者多数计划修建的新燃煤发电厂无法落地（闲置火电厂装机容量仅达4.5吉瓦）。

除了第一个十年期，发电领域投资将主要流向可再生能源技术，即便是在“无脱碳目标”情景下，也是如此。在“去碳化”情景下，推高可再生能源普及率不需要太多补贴，所需补贴规模将在2030年达峰，之后下降。即便是峰值，也不会太高。往后下降是由传统能源发电零售价上扬和可再生能源技术成本下跌共同作用导致的。

引入高效市场竞争机制是东南欧电力行业发展的重要驱动力，将实现东南欧区域内部更加积极的国家间贸易往来，促进清洁能源价格均等化，提高可再生能源利用率。

此外，实行区域统一的碳定价制度会对东南欧电力市场产生重要影响。提高碳排放价格意味着传统能源发电零售价将会上涨，这会导致：第一，化石燃料发电利润率下降；第二，推广可再生能源所需补贴规模下降。大幅提高碳排放价格将从这两个维度提升可再生能源普及率。到了2050年，可再生能源发电量可占到东南欧总电力生产的85%，不过，不同的国家情况不尽相同。可再生能源开发潜力高的国家将成为可再生能源出口国，其余可再生能源产出增长较低的国家成为进口国。假如出台时间得当，碳定价制度将向投资商传递合理信号，引导投资行为，降低高碳排放技术封锁的风险。假如目前计划进行的燃煤（煤炭、褐煤）发电投资项目正式落地实施，将导致2035年以后废弃传统发电厂的沉没成本大于同时期为电力行业脱碳所需可再生能源开发补贴。2040年以后，多数新建化石燃料（煤炭、褐煤）发电厂将报废，化石燃料发电厂利用率将大幅下跌，降至盈亏平衡点以下。如果去碳化政策持续占上风，再加上碳排放价格制度持续释放强有力方向性信号，东南欧地区天然气发电时代终会成为过去时。三种情景下的高可再生能源渗透率表明，无论是国家层面还是区域层面，能源政策的重点都应放在降低可再生能源发电成本上，因为可再生能源必将成为未来能源结构中的重要组成部分。

决策者在进行化石燃料发电和天然气网络投资决策时应充分考虑到成本的问题，防止出现高碳排放技术的技术封锁。区域合作有助于解决能源供应安全性问题，并通过充分开发利用好区域内最具经济价值的可再生能源，降低去碳化成本。欧盟和国际金融机构将在吸引区域能源转型投资项目过程中发挥重要作用。
三种情景模拟的结果显示，碳排放交易体系是实现2050年减排目标的重要政策工具。欧盟和欧洲能源共同体将在西巴尔干六国能源转型过程中发挥重要的引领性作用，两个组织应敦促西巴尔干六国早日将建立碳排放交易体系提上政策制定日程。

South East Europe carbon roadmap – energy transition in the electricity sector

The region of South East Europe (SEE) comprises of 10 countries on the Balkan Peninsula. The region consists of the so-called Western Balkans countries, all of which aspire to but have not yet joined the EU – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo  region, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia (WB6), and countries which are members of the EU – Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece and Romania. The Western Balkans countries are parties to the Energy Community.
The power systems of the SEE countries are characterized by rather old and emission-intensive power plants, with predominantly state-owned energy supply monopolies. Lignite plays a significant role in the power system of the region with its total production being close to the level in Germany, the single-largest producer of lignite in the EU. The electricity network of the region is well connected. A brief summary of the structure of the energy sector in each country in the region is as follows:

Kosovo  region is the most lignite dependent country in the region, generating 97% of its electricity from lignite. Albania is the only country in the region which does not have any coal-fired power plants, and its domestic power mix is almost completely comprised of hydro power. In North Macedonia most of the electricity comes from lignite, with a 65-70% share in the power generation mix. Some 50% of the Greek power mix come from hard-coal and lignite, some 30% from gas. The remaining 20% are from hydro, wind and solar. Solar and wind still play a very small role in the SEE region. Croatia has some 50% hydro in the mix. Nuclear, coal, wind and some solar make up the remaining part. Serbia, similar to North Macedonia, generates more than 60% of its electricity from coal and the remainder mainly from hydro power. Montenegro’s power generation mix comprises mainly hydro power and some 30% coal. Bulgaria and Romania have nuclear power in their mix while hard-coal and lignite represent the largest generation source in Bulgaria and hydro power in Romania. Bosnia and Herzegovina produce power mainly from coal and hydro, the latter with a share of some 20%. 

The region is facing high level of energy poverty (estimated at 40% of the households in the entire region), high energy intensity (around three to four times higher than the EU average) and heavy air pollution.  Currently the countries are at a crossroads how to replace ageing coal-based generation. There is a vast potential for developing renewable energy at regional level (especially solar and wind) as well as significant opportunities for enhancing energy efficiency.
One of the most important challenges for the SEE region will be replacing more than 30% of its presently installed fossil fuel generation capacity by the end of 2030, and more than 95% by 2050 if its age structure is considered. This requires a strong policy framework to incentivize new investments in a region currently lacking investors, but also presents an opportunity to shape the electricity sector over the long term according to the broader energy transition strategy.

The replacement of aging power plants across most of SEE in the coming years presents affordability, security of supply, and decarbonization related challenges, but there are several potential long-term capacity development strategies that can meet these requirements.

To assess the effects of different policy decisions, three standard scenarios shall be assessed:

1.    The “No target scenario”, in which everything is business as usual.
2.    The “Delayed” scenario uses the officially confirmed future fossil fuel investment plans, followed by a change in policy direction from 2035 onwards.
3.    The “Decarbonization” scenario, which shows the impact of strict EU regulation and large investments in RES technologies.  

The scenarios differ with respect to CO2 emission reduction targets and the new fossil fuel based generation capacities. Installed RES capacity is an important assumption in the scenarios mentioned. As the other drivers of CO2 reductions (energy efficiency, nuclear power) are kept constant across scenarios, it is the RES expansion that will achieve the targeted emission reduction. However, the RES capacity distribution – amongst countries and amongst technologies – is an important result of the assumption. The distribution is based on each country’s specific geographic and climate fundamentals. 

The ‘no target’ scenario projects the implementation of current energy policy without CO2 emission reduction targets in the EU and the Western Balkans. Although a CO2 target is not imposed, producers face CO2 prices. The scenario assumes countries meet their 2020 renewable target, then gradually phase out support for renewables between 2021 and 2025.

The ‘delayed’ scenario involves an initial implementation of current (fossil fuel) investment plans followed by a change in policy direction from 2035 onwards, towards larger RES instalment. 

In the ‘decarbonization’ scenario the entire remaining coal capacity in the SEE region is based in three countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria and Greece.

In all three scenarios the capacity mix shifts away from fossil fuels towards renewable capacities, driven by increasing carbon prices and decreasing renewable technology costs.

The 94% decarbonization target for the EU28 + WB6 region translates into a higher than average level of decarbonization in the SEE region for the electricity sector; by 2050, regional CO2 emissions are 95.9% and 98.7% lower than 1990 levels in the ‘delayed’ and ‘decarbonization’ scenarios. This is due to a relative advantage for renewable electricity generation in the region compared with the European electricity sector in general, despite higher WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) levels than in the EU. The comparative advantage for the region relative to the EU lies mostly in hydro potential and solar irradiation. The data  shows that even in the ‘no target’ scenario, substantial carbon reduction – close to 91% by 2050 – is achieved driven by the carbon value, which results in a changing generation mix.

The described changes in the SEE electricity network lead to significant changes on the electricity markets. 

Investment levels increase significantly in all scenarios. This is partly due to the very low investment levels in the sector presently – which has been characteristic of the region during the last decades – but mainly due to the transformation of the electricity sector from carbon-intensive coal and lignite towards renewables in the ‘delayed’ and ‘decarbonization’ scenarios. In the ‘delayed’ and ‘no target’ scenarios, coal and lignite plants built in the 2018-2030 period (18-20 GW according to the current official energy policies in the region) become stranded, resulting in billions worth of stranded costs. Stranded costs are significantly lower in the ‘decarbonization’ scenario where most planned new coal assets do not materialize (limited to 4.5 GW).

With the exception of the first decade, generation investments are dominated by renewable technologies, even in the ‘no target’ scenario. The average RES support required to reach high penetration levels of RES in the ‘decarbonization’ scenario remains low, peaking in 2030 but even then remaining low and decreasing thereafter as a result of increasing wholesale prices and the falling cost of RES technologies. 

The introduction of a well-functioning competitive market is a key driver for the SEE electricity sector. It will enable more intra-regional trading opportunities between countries, leading to price equalization and higher RES deployment. 

Additionally, a uniform carbon pricing scheme would have a significant impact on SEE electricity markets. If the carbon price increases significantly compared with current levels, it can help RES penetration in two ways: by reducing the profitability of fossil fuel based generation and at the same time reducing the level of RES support needed (due to the impact of the carbon price on increasing the wholesale price). By 2050, RES can reach above 85% of electricity consumption in the region, but the contribution varies between individual countries. Those with high RES potential, become RES exporters, while others, exhibit less growth in RES output and increasing import dependence. If introduced in a timely manner, a carbon pricing scheme would send the appropriate signal to investors and reduce the risk of locking-in carbon intensive technologies. If currently planned coal and lignite investments are realized, they will lead to stranded costs after 2035 exceeding the cost of RES support needed during the same period to decarbonize the electricity sector. The utilization of fossil fuel plants will fall below required economic levels after 2040, with most newly built coal and lignite plants entering early retirement. If consistent decarbonization policy prevails, with a significant and persistent CO2 price signal, the role of gas remains transitory in the region. The high penetration of renewables in all scenarios suggests that energy policy, both at the national and regional level, should focus on lowering the cost of RES integration, as RES will be a key component of the future energy mix.. 

Stranded costs should be carefully considered in fossil fuel generation and gas network investment decisions in order to avoid lock-in to carbon intensive technologies. Regional cooperation helps to handle security of supply issues and reduces the cost of decarbonization by enabling the utilization of the most economic RES resource potential in the region. EU and international financial institutions have a key role in this transition process by helping to meet growing investment needs. 

The results suggest that establishing an ETS scheme would be a major policy instrument in achieving 2050 carbon targets. The role of the EU and the Energy Community is key in order to steer the WB6 countries in this direction, as presently an ETS is not on their policy agendas. 

编辑 | 张    梅

翻译 | 齐晓彤

设计 | 大    米