孟加拉国鼓励新能源投资

●转变背后的原因

●液化天然气发展

●挑战和机遇

由于对燃煤电厂的资金管理日渐严格，孟加拉国将修订国家电力总体规划（PSMP），将重点从煤炭转向清洁液化天然气（LNG）。2018年，南亚通过之前的电力总体规划，将煤炭放在未来能源结构的首位，并根据这一转变设定了短期，中期和长期发展战略目标——到2021年完成将煤炭放在未来能源结构的首位的目标，到2030年实现可持续发展，到2041年成为发达国家。随后，在南亚经济稳定增长不到两年的时间，国家又对这份规划做出了新的修订。在总体规划的基础上，政府鼓励本地和外来投资者建立燃煤项目，从而进一步加速该国的经济发展。

转变背后的原因

一些煤炭项目于十年根据2010年电力总体规划（PSMP）开始，并在混合能源政策下最新修订版电力总体规划（2016）获批。这项政策主张煤炭发电占总能源结构的35％，因此政府将23个以煤炭为基础的电力项目交给了不同的公有企业，私营企业和国有合资公司。但是这些年来，政府意识到，由于大型金融机构不再支持肮脏能源，因此为燃煤发电寻求融资也成为难事。相反，他们支持环保项目。而液化天然气被认为是全球最清洁的能源选择之一，因此，这个拥有约1.65亿人口的国家选择这种能源以期满足其不断增长的能源需求。结合目前的情况，孟加拉国政策制定者正在考虑在几年内重新审查这份总体规划。

在这23个燃煤电厂项目中，三个电厂项目已经投入使用。它们分别是位于巴拉布库里亚的两个电厂，总装机容量为525兆瓦（MW），以及位于帕亚拉的孟加拉国中国电力有限公司（BCPCL），总装机容量1320兆瓦。

七个政府燃煤电厂，私人燃煤电厂和合资燃煤电厂目前正处于建设阶段，它们分别是：处于第一阶段的孟加拉国煤炭发电有限公司（CPGCBL）马塔巴里1200兆瓦超临界燃煤热电厂，SS电力有限公司吉大港1224兆瓦热电厂，巴里萨尔电力有限公司的巴里萨尔307
兆瓦热电厂，印度阿达尼电力有限公司贾坎德邦1600
兆瓦电厂，孟加拉国印度友谊电力有限公司（BIFPCL）的迈特里1320兆瓦超级热电厂和帕拉1320
兆瓦热电厂，农村电力有限公司-诺林科国际电力有限公司的帕图阿卡利1320 兆瓦电厂。据电力部门消息，这些项目进展的情况介于16％到52％之间。

十三个燃煤电厂的建设工作尚未开始，其中包括：处于第二阶段的孟加拉国煤炭发电有限公司的马塔巴里1200兆瓦超临界燃煤热电厂，阿舒甘杰电站有限公司（APSCL）的帕图阿卡利1320
兆瓦电厂和乌塔尔班加1200 兆瓦超级热电厂，猎户电力有限公司（OPL）的毛瓦522 兆瓦电厂和加梅里亚 635
兆瓦电厂，猎户电力协会（OPA）的达卡282 兆瓦电厂和吉大港 282
兆瓦电厂，猎户电力库尔纳有限公司的库尔纳565兆瓦电厂以及杭州锦江集团有限公司，杭州正才控股集团有限公司和锦都能源设备的香港财团旗下的米尔索莱1320兆瓦电厂。

下列电厂的建设工作也还未启动：孟加拉湾电力有限公司（PV）的莫赫什哈利1320

兆瓦电厂，孟加拉电力发展局（BPDB）的莫赫什哈利1320兆瓦电厂，太信环球控股公司的孟加拉-新加坡700兆瓦电厂以及太信环球控股公司的太信环球控股公司-住友集团1200兆瓦超超临界电厂。

几个月前，能源和电力国务部长纳斯鲁尔·哈米德（Nasrul Hamid）首次宣布由煤电转向清洁能源的国家能源政策。他表示，这背后的主要原因是融资困难和进展缓慢。

去年11月，国务部长在达卡一个项目开工仪式上接受采访时表示：“一些公司在获得批准后仍无法获得启动资金，所以我们正在考虑叫停，因为即使得到政府的支持，这些项目的建设工作也需要耗费大量的时间。” 

在实际建设工程中，共有5个项目取得一定进展并获得资金，它们分别是佩拉（帕图阿卡利1320兆瓦孟加拉国-中国合资项目）、兰帕尔（巴格哈特1，320兆瓦孟加拉国-印度迈特里热项目）、萨拉姆（班什哈利吉大港1224兆瓦项目）、巴里萨尔电力有限公司（巴尔古纳30兆瓦项目）和马塔巴里（考克斯巴扎尔1200兆瓦孟加拉国-日本合资项目）。

其中，佩拉电厂的一个机组已经投入生产。国务部长表示，过去几个月来它一直在为国家电网提供600兆瓦的电力，且其现在将建造二、三号机组。在佩拉电厂投入使用之前，迪纳杰布尔巴拉普库里亚的525兆瓦装机容量是孟加拉国唯一的燃煤发电来源。马塔尔巴里工厂电厂预计在2023年竣工发电。

他表示，政府已经开始准备国家所有有关煤电项目总体状况的详细文件。文件将移交至总理办公室，征求她的建议与意见。

目前发电量为23548兆瓦。截至2020年11月18日，发电量预计可达到14139兆瓦。

鉴于燃煤发电难以筹集资金，且液化天然气价格低廉，信誉良好，这种燃料被广大投资者所青睐。目前，政府正在利用两个浮式储油装置每天进口10亿立方英尺的液化天然气。政府计划到2030年，液化天然气进口量达到每天2000亿立方英尺。孟加拉国液化天然气（LNG）进口量在2019-2020财年（FY）大幅增加了64.61％，总量可达到416.4万吨，可满足国内日益增长的对天然气的需求。2018-2019财年，孟加拉国国家石油公司的子公司Rupantarita

Prakritik天然气有限公司（RPGCL）进口了253万吨液化天然气。孟加拉国的电厂和工厂大量消耗了这些液化天然气，尤其是燃气发电厂对液化天然气的消耗尤为巨大。

目前在建的五个液化天然气的项目总共可生产8,750兆瓦电量。帕拉3600兆瓦和莫赫什哈利3600
兆瓦联合循环发电项目是其中两个电厂，分别由西门子和通用电气（GE）负责。Summit
Power集团还与通用电气携手在梅格纳加特又建立了一座大型的液化天然气发电厂。最近，印度信实集团从日本国际合作银行和亚洲开发银行拿到6.44亿美元的贷款，这笔资金用于在纳拉扬甘伊建设718兆瓦的发电厂。Summit梅格纳加特二号电力有限公司（583兆瓦）还从渣打银行（SCB）和国际金融公司（IFC）获得了3.5亿美元的双期定期贷款。

在未来，政策方向的转变可能为投资者和整个市场经济带来挑战和机遇。突如其来的决定可能会让那些拥有投资和技术专长的海外公司在孟加拉国建立煤炭生产基地时陷入困境。据有关部门的消息来源称，在南亚经济中，中国公司在EPC（工程，采购和建筑）和股权投资交易中均占主导地位，且中国拥有世界上规模最大的清洁高效煤电系统。中国的五家工程承包商是中国电力建设集团，中国能源工程股份有限公司，中国能源建设集团东北电力第一工程有限公司，中国机械进出口总公司和中国华电。同时，要想变更政策，就需要在国内发展基础设施方面进行大量投资，这也是一个挑战。但此举肯定也会为在相关领域足够专业的公司打开新的投资大门。

⬆ 中企参与投资的孟加拉国电站全面投运, 这是2020年9月29日在孟加拉国南部博杜阿卡利县拍摄的帕亚拉2×660兆瓦超超临界燃煤电站（无人机航拍  新华社发）

实际上，产能过剩是对经济而言是一种负担，因为政府每年必须向公共财政支付巨额资金以防止电厂产生多余的电力。今年5月，某国际能源金融研究小组在发表文章中表示，在2018-2019财年，孟加拉国的煤电产能利用率为43％。因此，政府必须支付约900亿塔卡（合1.1亿美元）的赔偿金，用以支付容量电费。

由于疫情导致的停工停产，商业和工业发展实际上处于停滞不前的状态，电力的利用率急剧下降，剩余电力的数量持续增加。因此，孟加拉国电力发展委员会（BPDB）必须给与巨额补贴以确保消费者能享受低电价，这同时给政府增加了沉重的负担。值得注意的是，去年2月，国务部长在国会上提出了这一问题。他表示，过去十年来政府承担的电力补贴高达5266亿塔卡。

实际上，工厂依靠进口化石燃料（例如煤炭，液化天然气，石油和天然气）发电，价格着实昂贵。但由于孟加拉国没有足够的化石燃料储备装置，逐步向绿色替代能源（如太阳能，风能和生物质能发电）转变也不失为一种出路。如今，随着太阳能发电厂的电力成本的下降和技术效率的提高，向可再生能源转型的想法可行。作为气候脆弱论坛的参与国，孟加拉国承诺到2050年转变为100％通过可再生能源发电。为此，政府应开始与其发展伙伴磋商，并鼓励潜在的投资者投资新能源领域。

Bangladesh sets to prioritise LNG  in power generation

Bangladesh
is set to revise its power sector master plan or PSMP shifting its
focus from coal into clean liquefied natural gas (LNG) as managing funds
for coal-based power plants is getting tougher. The latest move came in
less than two years after the steadily growing economy in South Asia
adopted its previous PMSP in 2018 following a revision giving high
priority to coal in future energy mix in matching with its short, medium
and long-term development strategies –Vision 2021, SDGs (sustainable
development goals) by 2030 and developed country by 2041. Based on the
master plan, it has encouraged investors locally and globally to set up
coal-fired projects to further accelerate economic wheels of the
country.

Reasons behind the shift

Some
of these coal projects were taken up a decade ago in line with the
power sector master plan (PSMP) 2010 and were approved in the recently
revised PSMP-2016 under a mixed energy policy. As this policy advocates
for a 35 percent coal power in the total energy mix, the government
awarded 23 coal-based power projects to different public, private and
state-owned joint venture companies. But over the years, it has become
clear to the government that finding financing for coal power has become
very difficult, as big financiers no longer back dirty energy. Instead
they back environmentally friendly projects. As LNG is considered one of
the cleanest energy choices globally, the country of around 165 million
population now looks for this option with an aim to meet its growing
energy demand. Keeping current experience into the account, the
Bangladeshi policymakers are also considering revisiting such master
plan within a couple of years.

Among
the 23 coal-fired power plant projects, three plants – two at
Barapukuria having a total capacity of 525 megawatt, or MW, and one
1,320 MW capacity plant of Bangladesh China Power Company Ltd, or BCPCL,
at Payra are already implemented.

Seven
government, private and joint venture coal-fired power plants are at
under-construction phase, which are: first phase of Matarbari 1,200 MW
ultra super critical coal-fired thermal power plant of Coal Power
Generation Company Bangladesh Ltd, or CPGCBL, Chattogram 1,224 MW of SS
Power Ltd, Barisal 307 MW of Barisal Electric Power Company Ltd,
Jharkhand 1,600 MW plant of Indian Adani Power Ltd, Maitree 1,320 MW
super thermal power plant of Bangladesh India Friendship Power Company
Ltd, or BIFPCL, Payra 1,320 MW thermal plant of BCPCL and Patuakhali
1,320 MW plant of Rural Power Company Ltd – Norinco International Power
Ltd. The progress rates of the projects range between 16 per cent and 52
per cent, said sources at the Power Division.

The
construction work on 13 coal-fired power plants is yet to start. These
include: second phase of Matarbari 1,200 MW ultra super critical
coal-fired thermal power plant of CPGCBL, Patuakhali 1,320 MW plant of
Ashuganj Power Station Company Ltd, or APSCL, Uttarbanga 1,200 MW super
thermal plant of APSCL, Maowa 522 MW plant of Orion Power Ltd, or OPL,
Gazaria 635 MW plant of OPL, Dhaka 282 MW plant of Orion Power and
Associates, or OPA, Chattogram 282 MW plant of OPA, Khulna 565 MW plant
of Orion Power Khulna Ltd, and Mirsorai 1,320 MW plant of the HongKong's
consortium of Hangzhou Jinjiang Group Co Ltd, Hangzhou Zhengcai Holding
Group Co Ltd and Jindu Energy Equipment.

The
construction work of Moheshkhali 1,320 MW plant of Bay of Bengal Power
Company (pvt) Ltd, Moheshkhali 1,320 MW plant of BPDB,
Bangladesh-Singapore 700 MW plant of CPGBL, and CPGCBL-Sumitomo 1,200 MW
ultra super critical plant of CPGBL has not also started yet.

State
Minister for Energy and Power Nasrul Hamid, who first announced the
energy policy shift from coal a few months ago, at a programme in
November revealed that financing issues and slow progress are the main
reasons behind the re-thinking on the projects.

"Some
companies could not secure the funds after getting the approval. So, we
are considering it (shutting them down) as they are taking too much
time to start the construction work even after getting approval from the
government," the state minister said at a programme in Dhaka last month
(November).

Five
projects that have made certain level of progress in physical
construction work and generated funds are Payra (1,320MW
Bangladesh-China joint venture in Patuakhali), Rampal (1,320MW
Bangladesh-India Maitri thermal project in Bagerhat), S Alam (1224MW, at
Banshkhali in Chattogram), Barisal Electric Power Company Ltd (307MW,
in Barguna), and Matarbari (1200MW Bangladesh-Japan joint venture in
Cox's Bazar).

Of
those, one unit of the Payra power plant has already gone into
production. It has been providing 600MW electricity to the national grid
for the last few months, said the state minister, adding that they will
now start to construct the second and third units. Before Payra, the
525MW capacity plant at Barapukuria in Dinajpur was the country's lone
electricity source from coal. The Matarbari plant is all set to start
electricity generation in 2023.

He
also said that they have already started preparing a detailed document
on the overall status of the country's all coal-based power projects and
the document will soon be placed to the Prime Minister's Office to get
her advice regarding the fate of the projects.

The
current generation capacity now stands at 23548 MW but the production
capacity is calculated 14139 MW as of November 18, 2020.

LNG related developments

While
coal power is difficult to finance, LNG attracts financiers easily
now-a-days because of its declining price and clean reputation.
Currently, the government is importing 1000 mmcf (million cubic feet)
LNG per day through two floating storage units. However, it plans to
increase the import capacity to 2,000 mmcf gas per day by 2030.
Bangladesh's liquefied natural gas (LNG) import increased significantly
by 64.61 per cent in last fiscal year (FY), 2019-20, to 4.164 million
tonnes to meet the mounting domestic gas demand. The state-run
Petrobangla imported 2.53 million tonnes of LNG in the previous FY,
2018-19, through its subsidiary Rupantarita Prakritik Gas Company Ltd
(RPGCL). The increased volume of LNG was consumed by the country's
gas-guzzling industries and factories, especially the gas-fired power
plants.

A
total of five LNG-based projects with a capacity of 8,750 megawatts of
electricity are in the pipeline. Payra 3,600 megawatts and Moheskhali
3,600MW combined cycle power projects are the two of these plants which
will be implemented by Siemens and General Electric (GE) respectively.
Summit Power also joined hands with GE to set up another big LNG based
power plant in Meghnaghat. In recent times, Indian conglomerate the
Reliance Group has secured $644 million in loans from Japan Bank for
International Cooperation and Asian Development Bank to build a 718
megawatts power plant in Narayanganj. Summit Meghnaghat II Power Ltd
(583MW) also secured a $350 million dual-tranche term loan facility from
Standard Chartered Bank (SCB) and the International Finance Corporation
(IFC).

Challenges and opportunities may arise

The
possible shift in the policy direction may trigger both challenges and
opportunities in the coming days for investors and the economy as a
whole. The sudden decision could put overseas companies that come up
with investment and technical expertise in setting up coal-based power
bases in Bangladesh in trouble.

According
to the concerned ministry's sources, Chinese companies dominate both
EPC (Engineering, Procurement and Construction) and equity investment
deals in the South Asian economy having one of the largest coal power
pipelines in the world. The five biggest chinese EPC contractors are
Power Construction Corporation of China, China Energy Engineering
Corporation, First Northeast Electric Power Engineering Company, China
National Machinery Import and Export Corporation and China Huadian.
Simultaneously, the policy change would require huge investment in
developing infrastructure within the country, which would be another
challenge. Alongside challenges, the move would certainly open up new
investment opportunities for companies having enough expertise in the
relevant field.

⬆ On January 3, 2021, workers assemble photovoltaic modules on rooftop
in a factory of Chinese company in a suburban area of Dhaka, the capital
of Bangladesh. (Photo/Xinhua)

Conclusion

In
fact, overcapacity is a burden on the economy, for every year the
government has to pay a huge sum of money from the public exchequer to
keep the plants from producing excess power. An international research
group on energy finance, in a review published in May this year, showed
that in FY 2018-19, Bangladesh's overall capacity utilisation was 43 per
cent. As such, the government had to pay a compensation to the tune of
around Tk 90bn ($1.1b) to keep the surplus units idle.
With the
pandemic-induced shutdowns, the quantity of surplus power has further
increased as power utilisation has reduced sharply following businesses
and industries practically coming to a standstill. There is also an
added burden of the huge subsidy the Bangladesh Power Development Board
(BPDB) has to pay to keep power tariff low enough for the consumers. In
this context, the disclosure of the state minister for power in the
Jatiya Sangsad last February on this issue is worth noting. He put at Tk
522.60 billion the total cost burden in the form of subsidy that the
government had to bear over the past 10 years.

In
fact, power generated from plants run on imported fossil fuels like
coal, LNG, oil and gas is inherently expensive. As the country is not
blessed with much fossil fuel reserves, a gradual shift towards the
greener alternatives like solar power, wind power and power from biomass
can be a way out. Given the declining cost of power from solar plants
and increasing efficiency of the technology, the idea of such a shift to
renewable alternatives is now a feasible proposition. As chairman of
the Climate Vulnerable Forum, Bangladesh is also pledge-bound to switch
to 100 percent renewable power system by 2050. To this end, the
government should begin consultation with its development partners as
well as encourage potential investors to invest in this emerging energy
sector.

 编辑 | 张   梅

  翻译 | 钟锦秀

 设计 | 大   米