继往开来 深化合作

毋庸置疑，1978年改革开放以来，中国的社会经济和基础设施取得了巨大进步。中国取得的成就与对外开放是密不可分的。公开数据显示，过去的四十年，中国跃升为全球第二大经济体、最大的制造业大国和出口国及第二大进口国。中国的国际地位持续提升，吸引全球众多合作伙伴与中国在贸易、投资以及广义上的经济发展层面展开合作。中国在国际舞台上的表现不断证明，中国的实力不容小觑。

非洲国家的发展也同样引人注目。进入21世纪以来，非洲已逐渐摆脱“绝望的大陆”这一称号，并通过耀眼的成绩赢得了“非洲正在崛起”的评断。新冠肺炎疫情发生之前，国际货币基金组织的数据预测，未来全球增长最快的十个经济体中，六个来自于非洲。非洲，一个曾经战乱频发的地方，正在告别充满纷争与冲突的昨日，以和平的方式，平稳过渡到选举民主的新时代。 

非洲经历了一系列制度创新。2001年，非洲统一组织转型为非盟，非洲发展新伙伴计划启动，成为了非洲的重要智库；非洲同行审议机制问世，旨在设立学术标准、促进同行互鉴；非洲和平与安全架构成立。2014年，这一系列体制机制创新全部囊括在非洲的重要转型蓝图非盟《2063年议程》中。2015年，《议程》中涉及工业化和就业等重点目标的内容，收录进联合国可持续发展目标，随后写进了中非合作论坛的相关协定。

非中的国内快速增长是推动两方展开国际合作的驱动力。

贸易和投资合作

非中经济合作最能切实体现过去二十年非中合作的卓越成果。与非中巨大的经济潜力相比，1999年非中双边贸易额远未达到期望值，报告显示仅为100亿美元。从贸易与投资的角度看，二十年的发展见证了非中贸易额从100亿美元增长到如今的2000多亿美元，增幅高达二十倍。

无论用哪种维度来衡量，如此巨大的增幅都是令人惊叹的。非洲对华出口不断增长，非洲向中国的进口额则以更快的速率增长。

二十年的发展暴露出非中贸易关系两个亟待解决的重要问题。首先，非洲对华贸易存在逆差；其次，非中双边贸易在中国对外贸易总额中占比很小，仅有4%。相比于欧洲、美国、亚洲，非洲共有54个国家、13亿人口，若按贸易额计算，非洲全部国家加起来充其量也只排中国所有贸易伙伴的末位；再看出口结构，非洲自然资源禀赋优越，拥有全球90%的铂（白金）、90%的钴、50%的黄金、9.6%的石油、三分之二的锰、35%的铀、75%的棉，非洲对华（及对其他贸易伙伴）出口以大宗商品为主。非洲是经济发达国家工业产品出口的重要市场，中国每年有大量工业产品远销非洲。非洲出口产品附加值低是目前非洲面临的一个棘手且紧迫的问题。

中方对于非方扩大出口的提议表示明确支持。为了响应非方在贸易失衡方面的担忧，2018年双方在中非合作论坛北京峰会上达成共识，建立一个全新的贸易促进机制，解决非中双边贸易存在的结构性瓶颈问题，中非经贸博览会由此应运而生。

2019年，首届博览会在湖南省长沙市举办，第二届的筹备工作正在进行中，预计在2021年9月举行。此项机制的建立旨在以博览会为平台宣传非洲的出口产品，增加非洲产品在中国消费市场的曝光度，为扭转双方贸易不平衡起了个好头，未来双方应大力开展贸易能力建设、放宽市场准入限制、促进通关便利化、推进贸易谈判，进一步提升非中贸易额，促进双边贸易平衡。

中国制造业企业赴非投资兴业有助于提升非洲的生产效率，帮助非洲发展高附加值产业。中国对非洲的外商投资存量在持续提升。美国约翰霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院中非研究倡议(SAIS-CARI)的一项报告显示，2019年中国对非外商投资存量超过了430亿美元。中国的国企和私企广泛地参与到非洲基础设施、能源、石油、制造业和农业等领域的投资中，在非洲市场有较大影响力。不过论投资额，中国稍逊于非洲的其他发展伙伴。12%的中国对非外商投资集中在制造业，投资存在区域分配不均衡的问题。非洲现有上百个经济特区，相较其他地区更具经济发展潜力。中方可以投资农业加工产业，在能力建设、农业技术转移、技能培训和实操方面提供中国智慧。

相应地，中国市场进一步向非洲企业开放也有助于知识和经验互鉴，促进双边贸易和外商投资。值得注意的是，贸易和旅游业有望助力非洲后疫情时期的经济复苏。

聚焦提高投资效率

对于很多非洲国家而言，中国不仅是外商直接投资的重要来源国和重要出口国，也是重要融资方及大型基础设施项目的重要承建商。自中非合作论坛成立以来，中国承建方受委托完成了一系列重大项目。中企共承包完成了逾6000公里的铁路建设，负责融资、施工和建造工作，一些情况下还会负责铁路通车后初始阶段的运营。非洲有两大中方承建的铁路，分别是肯尼亚蒙巴萨-内罗毕标轨铁路和亚的斯亚贝巴-吉布提标轨铁路。前者起初的设计是一条延伸至乌干达和卢旺达的区域铁路，后者是东非地区首条电气化铁路，耗资约40亿美元。这些项目对地区社会经济发展的重要性积极性是毋庸置疑的，不过铁路作为公共产品有其局限性——铁路运营过程中必须保证良好的营收，以收回前期投资成本，否则政府便需要出台补贴政策。鉴于项目关系到非洲的长远发展，非洲相关国家政府应担负起应尽的责任。

非中合作朝着不断深化和多元化的方向发展的过程中，难免会遭遇到别有用心之人横加指点、乱加批评。有一类荒唐论调是说非洲正在沦为中国的殖民地，或者中国占领了非洲。对非中合作的性质如是定调存在两大问题。首先，这种观点不客观。“殖民”是对人权地极大侵犯，该词的内涵十分沉重，用以形容经济关系十分不妥；其次，将“非洲”与“殖民”一词挂钩，暗示着非洲在21世纪仍无力自保而屈服于外国势力，带着一股居高临下的优越感，其心可诛。

与之相关的论调有，非洲人陷入了债务陷阱，无法偿还外债。这种观点暗示中国在有意地以借贷的方式向非洲施压，从而换取非洲为中国的战略及政策主张提供外交和政治上的支持，即所谓的“债务外交”。受新冠疫情影响，赞比亚出现了债务违约，一些媒体就此事大做文章，非要把中国牵扯进来，而事实上涉事方为私人债权人，与中国政府毫无关系。

公开数据显示，非洲17-20%的外债由中国持有。但“非洲“并不是一个国家，事实上中国持有的外债比重超过20%的非洲国家只有安哥拉、吉布提、肯尼亚、刚果（布）、喀麦隆、赞比亚和埃塞俄比亚。

此外，围绕非洲外债问题还有其他需要考虑的问题。比如，债务是债权方强加给债务方的吗？外债难道不是非洲国家主动借的吗？难不成是中国强迫勒令非洲国家借的？再者，非洲国家需要发展资金，资金来源是中国还是其他国家或机构，有实质性的区别吗？非洲国家以外就没有其他国家向中国借钱了吗？中国是非洲唯一的债权方吗？很多非洲人，从平民百姓到肯尼亚总统乌胡鲁·肯雅塔，都对国际上某些论调背后的动机心存质疑。非洲的债权方包括中国也包括多边机构和其他双边债权人，为何唯有中国被单独圈起来，还被大加挞伐？诚然，中国是非洲国家最大的双边债权人，但非洲向世界银行等多边国家组织及私人投资方所募集的贷款数额更大。

更关键的问题在于非洲国家如何投资、利用好从各方募集到的资金款项，是投入到未来可以创造收入、提高国家偿债能力的生产部门，还是投入到创收前景渺茫的社会部门？在一些情况下，债务在项目完成并创造预期收入之前就到期了，国家无力偿还债务，无奈之下再次借贷。此外，在项目按期保质有效交付的方面，个别非洲国家能力有限。确保资金流向生产性服务性基础设施领域进而确保经济可持续发展是债务国的职责。国际货币基金组织在提出非洲存在债务违约风险的时候没有考虑到贷款的用途对国家偿债能力的影响，因此对非洲国家财务状况的论断缺乏科学依据。考虑到贷款多数用来进行生产性基础设施建设，如果中国持有部分非洲国家的外债比重较大，很可能因为这些国家的偿债能力较好。

共同应对挑战

非洲在联合国共有54票，像中国这样的大国自然会选择与非洲合作，共同应对国际社会面临的挑战。

中国很早就意识到了非洲的重要性，甚至早于中国需要非洲的帮助恢复联合国合法席位之前。20世纪60年代，中国大力支持非洲国家的民族独立运动。为表感谢，1971年独立后的非洲国家支持恢复中华人民共和国在联合国的合法席位。这便是非中早期的政治外交接触，中国在非洲独立早期的对非援助使中国在国际舞台上获得了非洲国家的政治支持。在意大利法西斯侵略埃塞俄比亚时，中国共产党在多个中国城市组织学生和工人进行游行示威，与埃塞人民站在统一战线上反对法西斯侵略，表达捍卫民族独立、国家主权的决心，为埃中建交奠定了基础。中国对其他非洲国家人民追求民族独立和国家解放也给予了大力支持。

非洲占54票，联合国在关键议题上，必须让非洲上谈判桌。以下国际社会关切的议题都少不了非洲国家的参与——国际和平安全稳定、联合国改革和全球治理改革、气候变化、对抗恐怖主义、移民、可持续发展目标、抗击新冠肺炎疫情、全球疫情、贸易谈判等等。

迄今为止与非中合作有关的文章汗牛充栋，即便如此，过去对非中合作的研究调查未必详尽、著述未必全面、评断未必公允，鉴于此，我力图提供以事实证据为基础的分析，以补苴罅漏。

2020年标志着非中建立制度性合作关系的第二十周年，合作制度化是使合作关系提质升级、朝着更加可持续和可预见的方向迈进的最好模式。事实证明，中非合作论坛建立后，国际上许多国家纷纷与非洲建立起了合作机制。如今，中非合作论坛走过了二十个年头，吸引了广泛的国际关注，社评新闻、褒贬毁誉不计其数，没有哪个对非国际合作机制在影响力和关注度上能够媲美中非合作论坛。这不禁令人思考，背后的原因是什么？

显而易见，一些自认为在非洲根基很深的国外势力在担心是否将被日渐强大的中国取代，那些曾经认为控制非洲如探囊取物之人对中国人的到来忧心忡忡，所谓的“自由世界“针对非中合作的负面评价与误解并不稀奇。

在此我申明，过去二十年的非中合作成果值得赞誉。不过，庆祝成果是一方面，双方也应着力解决非中合作中的结构性问题。至于合作存在什么问题，非方比任何除非中以外的第三方更有发言权。

首先是非中贸易不平衡问题。鉴于中国是全球最大的制造业国家，除产油国之外，世界上多数国家在对华贸易上都存在逆差，非洲国家也不例外。

针对扭转贸易逆差的任务，双方的重点应是解决供给端的结构性瓶颈、提高劳动生产率和产品服务附加值、减少冗杂的贸易谈判流程、简化进口标准、提高物流水平、简化清关支付和争端解决机制，双方过去也一直在朝着这个方向努力。中国的中产阶级人口达5亿，全国人口达14亿，中国市场将为非洲出口带来宝贵机遇，非洲绝不会错失良机，中国也绝不能将非洲产品拒之门外。

其次是外债问题。国际上有关债务陷阱和债务违约风险的不实论调为非中合作增添了不少麻烦。但非洲国家基础设施赤字较大、独立的金融机构阙如，即便疫情后经济有望实现反弹，非洲国家政府仍需继续向双边债权人与世界银行、国际货币基金组织等多边国际金融机构贷款，没有任何政府能单独依靠本国国库满足国家快速发展的需求，中国一直以来是非洲值得信赖的伙伴，弥补了非洲国家发展计划的融资缺口，但仅靠中国一家是不现实的。非洲所有的国际合作伙伴都需要团结起来，共同面对挑战，不仅通过提供优惠贷款保障资金，更要确保贷款能够在非洲国家产生最大的效益，这就需要进行对非技术转移，雇佣当地劳动力，将资金投入到生产部门，视情况采用公私合营等创新合作模式等等。

过去二十年的发展成果固然可喜可贺，对非中合作关系进行开放、坦诚和建设性的反省同样迫在眉睫。需要强调的是，对非中关系的回望和反思理应由非中双方发起并主导。

编辑 | 张梅

设计 | 大米

Domestic Dynamics and Transformation as a Key Factor in Africa-China Cooperation

China
has made phenomenal socio-economic and infrastructure development since
the opening up and reform in 1978. This stellar achievement was in
particular a driving factor to the Chinese “Going Global Policy”.
According to available data, in the last 40 years, China became the
second-largest economy and the first manufacturer and exporter. It also
became the second importer of goods.

Standing
globally, China has been elevating and attracting many countries around
the world to partner with China in investment and trade and overall
economic cooperation. And China unremittingly asserted itself as a
global player as well. 

In
the same vein, African economies also made impressive progress. Once
dubbed as the “hopeless continent”, many African countries made
remarkable progress and earned the compliment of “Africa rising” over
the 2000s in particular. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, IMF data
indicated that among the 10 fast-growing economies globally, six would
be in Africa. Africa, previously marred with conflicts, witnessed a
decrease in the incidence of conflicts and many countries made a more
stable and peaceful transition to electoral democracy.

The
continent also made a remarkable institutional transformation from the
Organization of African Unity (OAU) to the African Union (AU) in 2001,
with the creation of the New Partnership for African Development (NEPAD)
– which acts as the think tank for the continent, the African Peer
Review Mechanism (APRM) – to encourage peer-to-peer learning and
benchmarking, and the Africa Peace and Security Architecture (APSA).
These institutions and others together in 2014 defined “Agenda 2063” as a
blueprint for the transformation of the continent, key aspects of which
– such as goals for industrialization and job creation – were then
incorporated into the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) agreed in
2015, as well as the FOCAC agreements thereafter. 

Therefore, 
the domestic progress that was made both in Africa and China, I argue,
is the driving factor for both to cooperate and partner with each other.

Cooperation in trade and private investment
If
there is anything to concretely measure Africa-China cooperation in the
last 20 years, it is cooperation in the sphere of the economy. In 1999,
the trade between Africa and China was very insignificant measured by
the huge potentials of the two. Reports indicated that the volume of
trade between the two was only 10 billion USD. Regarding trade and
investment, it is true that trade between Africa and China grew in the
last twenty years from a mere 10 billion USD to the current level of
over 200 billion USD. These figures indicate 20 fold increase in about
20 years.

By
any measure, the growth is spectacular. Africa’s export to China over
the years have increased. However, the import of Chinese goods increased
too, and even faster.  Therefore, the trade relationship leads to two
critical problems. First, the trade balance is in favor of China. And
second, it only accounts for 4% of Chinese foreign trade volume in
total. Africa as a continent is the smallest trade partner of China. If
we compare this with the trade volume of China with other continents in
Europe, North America and Asia, Africa with 54 countries and 1.3 billion
population is least trading. Apart from volume, Africa’s export to
China is mainly commodities, as it is with other partners. The fact is,
we are endowed with abundant natural resources (Africa accounts for 90%
of the world’s platinum, 90% Cobalt, 50 %, Gold,  9.6% Oil,  ⅔
manganese, 35%  uranium, 75% Colton). Africa is a huge market for
industrial products of the major economies, and for China too. But there
is a dire, urgent need to add value to our industrial products within
the continent.

Where
China stands out, however, is at least an expressed willingness to
support this. Responding to African concerns, Africa and China agreed at
the last FOCAC in 2018 to improve the two structural bottlenecks
through a new trade facilitation pillar. As part of this, the first
China Africa Economy and Trade Expo was staged in Changsha, Hunan in
2019. Preparation for the second edition is well underway to stage it in
September 2021. While a great deal more needs to be done, this was
aimed to assist African exporters to exhibit their products to the
Chinese consumer market. More remedial measures will be needed in the
future, including trade capacity building, easing requirements, and
custom facilitation and trade negotiations. These will greatly
contribute not only to increasing the trade volume but also to narrowing
the trade imbalance.  

In
this regard, attracting more Chinese manufacturing enterprises to
Africa could significantly contribute to addressing the issue of
productivity and value addition. So far, overseas investment stocks from
China in Africa have increased over time, reaching over 43 billion by
2019 (SAIS-CARI). Chinese enterprises, both state-owned and private
steadily are having strong footprints in Africa through various forms of
investment, from infrastructure to energy, oil and manufacturing and
agriculture. However, China is still behind other development partners
in this area, and while around 12% is focused on manufacturing, the flow
is not evenly distributed across Africa. Besides, there is
significantly more potential, especially in Africa’s Special Economic
Zones (SEZs), of which there are now hundreds. The Chinese side can
participate in investing in agro-processing for instance, and can also
participate in capacity building, transfer of agricultural technology,
skill development, and sharing best practices.  

Finally,
in the other direction, opening up for more African businesses to
operate in China will be helpful as well to ensuring better knowledge
and facilitation of trade and FDI opportunities. Trade and tourism are
expected to play a vital role in post-COVID recovery for the
continent.  

Cooperation in Finance

For
many African countries, China has become a source of not only FDI and
trade but has also become a major source of finance and project
contracting of major infrastructure projects. Over the period of the
FOCAC, Chinese contractors have been commissioned to deliver a large
number of major projects. Chinese enterprises have been contracted to
build over 6000 km of the railway with finance, engineering, and
construction work, and in some cases initially managing the running of
the railways. Two notable rail projects are the Mombasa-Nairobi Standard
Gauge Railway in Kenya, first envisioned as a regional project with the
ambition to stretch to Uganda and Rwanda, and the Addis Ababa-Djibouti
first electric railway – with a cost of about 4 billion USD. While these
projects, no doubt, have significant positive social and economic
impacts, as public goods they have their challenges – for example in
recouping sufficient revenues to avoid government subsidy. However,
these are long-term projects and issues, and African governments should
take ownership of dealing with them.

With
intensified and diversified cooperation between Africa and China,
diverse opinions have been expressed. One mind-boggling opinion is China
colonizing Africa or China taking over Africa. Characterizing
cooperation in such a way has two major problems. One has to do with its
objectivity – colonization was a human rights violation of huge
proportions, so it cannot be minimized by linking it to economic
relationships. The other is a patronizing attitude in suggesting that
Africans are open to colonization in the 21st century. 

Linked
to the above-mentioned characterization is that Africans are in debt
distress or traps. The argument is that China is intentionally burdening
Africa to mobilize diplomatic and political support to its policies and
strategies or what some call “debt diplomacy”. A default by Zambia for
some of its private creditors – coming out of COVID-19 – has attracted
media attention and linked to China (Africa Report 2020). 

Yet,
Africa is not a country. Available data indicate that overall 17-20% of
all the debts of Africa are owed to China. In fact, there are just
seven countries in Africa where Chinese debt represents over 20% of
external debt: Angola, Djibouti, Kenya, the Republic of the Congo,
Cameroon, Zambia, and my own country Ethiopia.

More
broadly, there are a few other conceptual questions regarding the debt
issue. Firstly, is debt something China imposes on African countries?
Secondly, is it not Africans that ask for the loan, whether it is from
China or other financiers? Are Africans the only ones that borrow money
for development financing from China? Is China the only lender to
Africa?  For instance, Africans including President Kenyatta of Kenya
argued that why only the Chinese debt is singled out as Africa is
indebted to many multilateral agencies and bilateral creditors
(President Kenyatta interview to CNN). Although this makes China the
largest bilateral creditor to Africa, more is owed to multilateral
institutions such as the World Bank as well as the international private
sector.

Indeed,
the most critical question is how and where do Africans invest and make
use of money – from all sources. Is it in the productive sectors so
that it can generate or produce income and manage the debt properly? Or
is it in social sectors, which will not likely generate such a return? 

It
is true in some cases that the debt matures before many projects are
completed and generate expected income in which case debt repayment
becomes a challenge. In other words, governments are forced to borrow
more. The latter aspect of the problem has to do with the national
capacity to effectively execute projects in time and with good quality
and standards. The former is the responsibility of borrowing countries
to ensure that the money goes to production or service sectors like
infrastructure so that the economy sustains. The fact is, calculations
of “debt distress” by the IMF do not take the “asset” creation provided
by loans into account, and therefore create a highly distorted picture
of African finances.

Indeed,
it may be that countries that have taken proportionally more loans from
China rather than others – could be in a better position to pay off
debt, given the productive infrastructure nature of loans secured from
China.

Cooperation in Global Issues

Africa
has 54 votes in the UN. As a result, any major economy like China has
to collaborate with Africa on various emerging challenges facing the
international community. 

China
recognized this early on, even before we had those votes. China lent
its support to the independence movement of African liberation movements
and struggle in the 1960s and beyond. In return, independent African
states supported the People’s Republic of China to take a permanent seat
in the United Nations in 1971. That formed the early political and
diplomatic engagement between Africa and China. China’s aid to Africa in
early years of Africa’s independence was seen as an aid for political
support for China in the global arena. For instance, it is recorded that
the Communist Party of China mobilized students and workers in several
Chinese cities to demonstrate against the invasion of Ethiopia by
fascist Italy in solidarity with the people of Ethiopia in their
struggle to defend and preserve the sovereignty and independence of
their nation. That laid the foundation for Ethiopia-China relations.
China also supported several other freedom movements.

Today,
with our 54 votes, Africa must be involved in all discussions of peace,
security and stability, reforms of the global governance structure,
climate change, the fight against terrorism, migration, and mobility,
SDGs, the fight against COVID-19 pandemic, and trade issues. These
agendas, among others, are crucial for the global governance structure
to involve Africa in. 

Conclusion

Although
there are many writings, I am strongly convinced that Africa-China
cooperation is not well-researched and the story is not told fully and
in a balanced manner. That is what this writer intends to contribute to
filling the lacuna by presenting the evidence-based analysis.

This
paper has laid out the increasing ties between Africa and China in all
areas – from trade, to finance, to people. It seems apparent that those
who had stronghold in Africa are worried that they are being replaced by
the new and aggressive Chinese community, which is a serious source of
worry and concern for those who used to take Africa for granted. From
that point of view, the misperception and negative narratives about the
Africa-China partnership from the liberal world are understandable or
not surprising.

However,
I would argue that the progress in cooperation over the last 20 years
between Africa and China is commendable. But as we celebrate
achievements, there are serious structural issues that need to be
addressed, which are not the same as those mentioned by outside
partners. 

As
I mentioned earlier, the first problem is the trade imbalance between
Africa and China. Africa is not alone in this as China is the largest
manufacturer of industrial products globally. Except for oil-producing
countries, most have trade deficits with China. 

In
this regard our focus must be, as we have been doing so far, resolving
the structural bottlenecks, including supply side constraints,
productivity and value addition issues; as well as joint efforts to
reduce the lengthy negotiation processes and trade agreements; and
simplifying stringent import standards, logistics, customs clearance,
and payment and dispute settlement mechanisms. With over half a billion
middle class and a population of 1.4 billion, Chinese markets is a great
opportunity for African exports which we must not miss, nor can China
let us miss it. 

The
second challenge relates to finance. The debt trap and debt distress
narrative are highly problematic. However, due to our significant
infrastructure deficit, and our current lack of independent monetary
institutions, even with the possible high growth in the post-COVID-19
ear, there is still no doubt that African governments will need to
continue borrowing money from bilateral sources and multilateral
financial institutions, such as the World Bank and IMF. No African
government can manage national development with only domestic revenue
generated by the economy. China has been a very helpful partner in
helping fill the gaps in financing our development agendas and plans,
but more can be done. Not only in terms of continuing to extend more
concessional loans, and ensuring those deliver maximum benefits for
African nations, for instance through technology transfer and use of
local employment and content, but also using the finance to leverage FDI
better for productive purposes, including through Public-Private
Partnerships (PPPs) where appropriate. We also need to work on this
together. 

While
celebrating the achievements in Africa-China cooperation over the last
two decades, the need for open, candid, and constructive reflection is
very imperative. That reflection, however, should come from and be led
by both sides.

Editor | Zhang Mei

Design | Demi