Fifty Years Since the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations: Can China and Europe Seize the Window of Opportunity of Trump 2.0?中欧建交五十年： 能否抓住特朗普2.0的机会窗口

This year marks the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Europe. Just after the new year, European Council President António Costa announced that to commemorate this historical moment, the EU and China will hold a summit .”We agreed that the EU and China working together to tackle global challenges would be a positive signal for peace, stability, and prosperity.” he said.

Through diplomatic rhetoric, the fact is that after fifty years of ups and downs, China-EU relations have undergone tremendous changes due to changes in power and external environment. For example, in 2000, the EU’s economic aggregate was six times that of China’s, and now it is equivalent to China’s. China has long since transformed from a low-income country aided by Europe into a parallel with the EU.

In terms of the external environment, when the two sides established diplomatic relations in 1975, they were Cold War allies, and their security strategic status was higher than their economic status. After the end of the Cold War, allies no longer exist, but China’s economy has taken off at a rapid pace. At the same time, globalization promoted by American neoliberalism has become popular, and economic factors have become the new balancer between China and Europe. China and the EU established a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2003. The following year, the EU became China’s largest trading partner, and China became the EU’s second largest trading partner – this shows the impact of economics on the relationship between the two countries.

However, since the second decade of the 21st century, the external environment has undergone four major changes. First, China’s total volume has caught up with the EU, while the EU’s trade deficit with China has remained at around 300 billion euros for a long time.

The second is that the United States completely changes its China policy, from so-called contact containment to comprehensive containment. Europe is an ally of the United States, and its foreign policy has also begun to change.

Third, the world has returned to geopolitical competition among major powers, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out. If the EU’s positioning as an ally to China was very clear when the two sides established diplomatic relations, now it is neither an ally nor an enemy, and is still a competitor in many areas.

Fourth, Trump’s re-election with a huge victory mark that a Trump-oriented America has become a long-term trend.

The first three changes have been going on for a long time. China and Europe are also adjusting to each other, and the marginal effects of their impact have already been demonstrated. But the fourth change is brand new and will become a long-term window of opportunity for a positive impact on China-EU relations in the future.

However, due to Trump 2.0’s different approaches to China-EU relations: tough on Europe and soft on China, there is also an important short-term window of opportunity for China and Europe to quickly improve relations.

Let’s first look at why Trump 2.0 was tough on Europe and soft on China at the beginning.

Why is Trump so tough on allies?

From an experience perspective, Europe believes that Trump’s election will have a huge impact and damage on its security, economy, and global issues such as climate protection, especially the denial of the universality and legitimacy of Western values.However, considering the deep-rooted tradition of alliances between the two sides and the common challenges facing China, the EU still has expectations for Trump 2.0.

However, Trump 2.0 is clearly an upgraded version beyond the imagination of Europeans. First, Trump stepped up his demand that NATO allies increase military spending from 2% to 5%, otherwise it would not provide security protection. Given the political and economic realities in Europe, this is simply impossible. For example, in Germany, 5% means 200 billion euros in spending, but the entire national budget is only 490 billion euros, equivalent to 40% of the total budget. At present, Germany’s military spending has risen year after year, and it has only reached 80 billion euros.

Subsequently, it was aimed at the sovereignty and territory of its allies, including Canada, Panama, and the Danish island of Greenland. And the use of force is not excluded. And has repeatedly claimed that this is no joke. This approach is completely beyond the bottom line of the European allies: after all, a war involving territory and sovereignty is breaking out in Europe, and Europe is completely unacceptable to it.

Whether or not this is Trump’s negotiating tactic: offering outrageous offers to gain the upper hand in negotiations in order to get the other side to compromise. This approach alone has greatly undermined the foundations of the international order that the United States has created and that Europe has worked so hard to maintain, and has made Europe’s response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict less legitimate.

Finally, Musk, who has contributed to Trump’s election and is known as the “second vice president” and “first friend”, openly supports European far-right politicians in various ways to interfere in the internal affairs of major European countries. Like the upcoming German election, Musk said Chancellor Olaf Scholz should “resign immediately”. At the same time, he gave full support to the far-right AfD party, calling it Germany’s “last spark of hope.” Another important ally, the United Kingdom, called for the resignation of Prime Minister Starmer, called early elections, and even conducted a poll on whether the United States should liberate the British people from tyranny.

As for Trump himself, he used the inauguration ceremony to invite Europe’s far-right politicians to attend, but turned away the ruling party, which is a traditional ally. In his first term, Trump made no secret of his support for far-right politicians. This time, however, the tactics were more violent.

Trump’s words and actions have shocked and puzzled the world: Why did he take the lead in attacking allies?

In fact, Trump’s words and deeds are very logical.

First, allies are the world’s biggest beneficiaries under U.S. rule. They not only work with the United States to formulate rules, but are also an important supporting force for US hegemony. For this reason, in the decades after World War II, the United States was willing or did not care that these allies profited from itself, even if it was a free ride. For example, the long-term lack of military spending has made the United States bear a greater cost of security for itself. There is also a large, long-term trade surplus: up to 158 billion euros in 2023.

Second, the post-war pattern of U.S. leadership and allies following has made allies deeply dependent on the United States. In the face of the United States doing whatever it wants, there is actually little bargaining power to fight back. Often, just by talking, you have to compromise. This is different from Russia, Iran, North Korea and other countries, which have little overlap of interests with the United States and have no dependence on the United States. It is difficult to deal with these countries, the cost is high, the risk is unpredictable, and if you don’t get it right, it will become a loss-making business.

From Trump’s eyes, allies are not only rich and profitable, but also have no power to resist, which can be described as “I am a sword”, not to mention that they also have the “original sin” of taking advantage of the United States. It is simply a sin not to eat such “fish and meat”.

Some may think that Trump is just an isolated case, a special case. Europe can give in to time. In four years, Trump will disappear from the stage of history, and liberal America will return. But the fact is that Trump’s America is already a historical trend, and he is in the midst of being convicted of crimes, having serious moral problems, and even being appointed by him as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Milley returned to the White House in the context of what he called a “fascist” and still enjoyed the support of a majority of Americans. The Republican Party has been dominated by far-right populists whose values are in line with Trump’s and less flawed personal character. Such a figure is more likely to be recognized by the American people.

What’s more, Trump is not a special case in the United States, but also a product of American tradition. The United States declared independence in 1776 and became a federal state with a constitution in 1789. But 12 years later, the United States made an attempt to overthrow a foreign government on the grounds of piracy, citing piracy. Then another 12 years passed, and the United States tried to annex Canada, which was under the control of the then hegemon Britain. Since then, the belief that the entire North American continent must be controlled has come to be known as the “manifest destiny” of the United States. It was under this “guidance” of Destiny that two-thirds of Mexico’s territory was subsequently annexed by force. Today’s annexation of Greenland, which is closer to North America, is a continuation of this historical tradition. As early as the acquisition of Alaska by the United States, Greenland was targeted. Presidents Franklin and Truman both took a fancy to the location, and the Truman administration offered a $100 million purchase price.

Trump’s tariff war is also nothing new in history. On May 28, 1929, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which raised the average tariff on imported goods to 47 percent. It was the United States that first launched the trade war against Europe, which triggered an unprecedented
economic crisis in human history.

It can be said that the emergence of Trump in the United States today has both historical genes and realistic mutations. It has already posed a great challenge to Europe.

Why did Trump 2.0 show favor to China first?

Unlike being tough on European allies, Trump has been making overtures to China before and after taking office. When he took office, he invited the Chinese leader to the inauguration ceremony in an unusual break with convention, and it was also the rare first time that China sent a high-level government delegation to an event.

Not only that, Trump also restored TIKTOK’s services the day before he took office, delaying the implementation of the ban for 75 days.It also proposes the establishment of a joint venture between China and the United States, each with a 50% stake. In the first three days of his inauguration, he held a traditional phone call with Chinese leaders. Almost on the same day, the US media revealed that Trump would visit China or invite Chinese leaders to visit the United States within 100 days of his inauguration. You must know that the only time since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States has not exchanged visits was during the Biden administration. Earlier, he said at a press conference before taking office: ” China and the United States can solve all the problems in the world together.”

If we only look at this wave of olive branches, we will give the world the illusion that it is the United States and Europe that are engaged in a global strategic game, not China and the United States. Of course, this is not the case.

China and the United States are structurally strategic contradictions. As a conservative country, it is in its highest national interest to ensure its hegemony, and it regards China as the only competitor with the ability to challenge and does its best to contain it. China, for its part, must remove all obstacles and make every effort to develop and realize the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. This determines that no matter who is in power in the United States, it will carry out all-round suppression of China, and the difference is only in different ways and means, and the results will be different.

In fact, if we look back at Trump’s first term, China and the United States also started high and went low. In the first year, the two sides exchanged intimate visits, and in the second year, an unprecedented trade war began, and the relationship between the two sides was conflicted and turbulent. Western public opinion warfare has always slandered China as the cause of confrontation and conflict between the East and the West. But in fact, the shift from decades-long engagement and containment to complete containment began when Trump became president. The same is true of the unprecedented turmoil in US-European relations.

After Trump’s re-election, he unexpectedly showed toughness to his allies and softness to China. In the world, it can be described as a combination of hard and soft. For allies, due to interests and historical factors, it is easier to reach a compromise without going to a showdown, so pull up the asking price first to get a better negotiating position. For China, an adversary, it is not easy to negotiate and compromise, so it is better to show favor first and advance by retreating. Because the United States is well aware that China will respond positively to the United States’ overtures in order to reduce conflict, stabilize Sino-US relations as much as possible, or delay the time for a showdown between the two sides. In this process, the United States can just open its mouth and ask for a sky-high price for China in order to obtain greater benefits than confrontation.

Second, Trump won under the banner of “America First.” In his inaugural speech, he once again put this concept to prominence. So there are two things he needs to do most urgently.

First, domestic affairs should be given priority, and it is necessary to “pull out chaos and put things right” in the country. On the day of the inauguration, two states of emergency alone were declared: a state of emergency on the southern border, and the army was sent to carry out large-scale deportations of illegal immigrants. Energy emergency, revocation of the Green New Deal, drilling for oil. Others include designating drug cartels as foreign-organized terrorist organizations and using federal and state law enforcement to crack down on them. He himself claimed that a hundred executive orders would be issued on the hundredth day. From the issuance of orders to the execution of orders and the completion of orders, the main energy and time of the early part of his tenure will be consumed.

Second, we must get rid of our burdens externally. This is mainly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. There are also withdrawals from various international organizations and agreements, such as the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization. Among them, China’s assistance is the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

For Trump, it will take time for both of these to be effective, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict will require China’s help. For this reason, at this stage, Trump can only tolerate China and avoid distraction.

So at this stage, he will negotiate with China in a way that shows goodwill, and puts forward an asking price ranging from economic and trade to diplomatic. It will not only buy time to solve the most pressing problems, but also try to achieve the goal of pressuring China to make greater concessions. After this stage, the true face of Sino-US relations during the Trump 2.0 period will be fully exposed.

China has a clear understanding of this. What’s more, in addition to the structural contradictions between China and the United States, there are many factors that will affect China-US relations in the next four years.

One is that Trump himself is unpredictable and capricious. China lacks trust in him. Second, whether it is Trump’s first term or the subsequent Biden term, there have been incidents in which allies or bureaucrats in the system have acted on their own and caused serious consequences. During the Trump era, it was the Meng Wanzhou incident that seriously impacted Sino-US relations, but Trump did not know about it. During the Biden period, Speaker of the same party Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan. Although Biden does not approve, he is powerless to stop it.

Although the Trump team is very loyal, most of them are extremely hawkish on China, and it is difficult to rule out using his authority to attack China, especially on the Taiwan issue, so as to create conflict.

The third is the emergence of emergencies. In the era of globalization, countries have become very closely influenced and interconnected. If relations between the two countries are good, some problems that arise tend to be big and small, and small things to be trivialized. But if relations are strained, small things can also escalate to the national level. For example, the epidemic that swept the world during Trump’s first term. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the epidemic has become normalized, once every few years. Only this time has seriously affected Sino-US relations. Again, the root cause is that the relationship between the two sides has deteriorated. The same is true of the balloon incident that occurred during the Biden years. If it had been an Australian balloon, it wouldn’t have been a problem at all.

As a result, emergencies between China and the United States will be inevitable in the next four years, and when they occur, they will often be politicized and escalate significantly.

However, given Trump’s businessman personality and pursuit of economic interests, the problems between China and the United States in the next four years will not be more vicious than Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, which seriously impacts China’s red line. While unpredictable conflicts may increase, compromise is always possible if it is not a zero-sum game of values and security. For China, it has seized the historical opportunity to accelerate reform and development at home, stepped up efforts to pull Europe inward, broke the siege of China’s neighborhood during the Biden era, and further improved its relations with the United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea, Australia and India. As during Trump’s first term, China quickly narrowed the overall gap with the United States. Now that Trump 2.0 is here, China will not miss it.

How can China and Europe seize the window of opportunity?

Both China and the EU are well aware that in the long run, Trump’s America is a threat to both sides, and each needs to work together to hedge. However, from China’s standpoint, the pattern of the United States being tough on Europe and showing softness to China is likely to be maintained in the first year and even the second year. China has a greater negotiating advantage over Europe. This short window is more favorable for China. At the same time, public opinion and political pressure on the United States in Europe are more likely to push the two sides to reach a major achievement as soon as possible.

The most geopolitical and geoeconomic effect of this is the resumption of the the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment . It took seven years to negotiate the agreement. There are two historical backgrounds. The first is the result of the German presidency, one of the engines of the European Union, and the pragmatic Chancellor Angela Merkel of China using Germany’s influence in the EU to push with all his might. Second, the results of the US election were released, and Biden, who pursues Atlanticism, won, but he has not yet taken office and is clearly opposed.

China and the EU seized this window of opportunity to reach an agreement. The agreement is so important to China and Europe that just two months after taking office, Biden used two major factors, Atlanticism and values, to force Europe to join the US sanctions against China, thus successfully freezing the agreement.

The most effective, symbolic, and least costly approach to Trumpized America now is to restart the agreement. It can really show that China and the EU are truly free from their differences and pragmatic cooperation, and the two powers will effectively hedge against the impact of the Trump 2.0 era.

Second, when the two sides held the summit talks, they issued a joint communiqué on supporting and defending globalization, free trade, global order, global governance, including climate change, and responding to large-scale epidemics. Since these are all things that the Trumpized United States strongly opposes, it makes sense for China and Europe to join forces to deal with the United States. In addition to political declarations, there should also be specific indicators of cooperation topics. For example, in order to promote the green transition, Europe has lifted tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, and China has also lifted countermeasures against Europe.

As for China, the lifting of the ban on Huawei, the partial or complete lifting of restrictions on China’s lithography equipment, and the promotion of cooperation between the two sides on the Belt and Road should also be included in the agenda of the talks. Whether or not they can be reached, negotiations on these issues alone can have a huge diplomatic effect, and both China and the EU can advance or retreat.

Finally, China has taken the opportunity of Trump’s change in aid policy to Ukraine to push for an end to the conflict and remove an obstacle to the improvement of China-EU relations.

French President Emmanuel Macron once said that Europe was naïve. Indeed, it has repeatedly asserted that only countries with Western-style democracies can be trusted, predicted, and relied upon. Cooperation among Western democracies is the only way to be secure. For this reason, the EU has also proposed “de-risking” China and tilted towards the US policy toward China. But the reality is that it is the United States that cannot be relied upon, cannot be trusted, is unpredictable, and capricious, and has brought great threats and damage to Europe.

What Europe does not understand is that it is not the system that determines the behavior of a country, but its civilizational genes. China has dominated East Asia for thousands of years, and has had contradictions and conflicts with its neighbors, but it has not posed a threat to the sovereignty of neighboring countries, and more importantly, it has maintained lasting peace in Asia. Scenes like the ongoing wars on the European continent do not exist in China-dominated Asia.

Now in the face of Trump and Trumpized America, shouldn’t Europe wake up and join forces with other countries to deal with the greatest danger in the world today? When the window of opportunity of history is opened, it is up to us to see the courage and vision of both China and Europe.

今年是中欧建交五十周年的历史性日子。新年刚过，欧洲理事会主席安东尼奥·科斯塔就宣布为纪念这个历史时刻，欧盟和中国今年举行峰会，并表示：“我们一致认为，欧盟和中国共同应对全球挑战将是和平、稳定和繁荣的积极信号。”

透过外交辞令，事实则是历经五十年风雨，由于实力和外部环境的变化，中欧关系已经发生巨大变化。比如2000年，欧盟经济总量是中国的6倍，现在则和中国相当。中国早已从一个被欧洲援助的低收入国家变身为与欧盟旗鼓相当的平行者。

从外部环境讲，1975年双方建交之时，彼此是冷战时的盟友，安全战略地位高于经济。冷战结束后，盟友不再，但中国经济高速起飞，同时美国新自由主义推动的全球化大行其道，经济因素成为中欧之间新的平衡器。2003年中欧建立全面战略伙伴关系，第二年，欧盟便跃居中国第一大贸易伙伴，中国则成为欧盟第二大贸易伙伴——这显示了经济对两国关系的影响。

但从二十一世纪第二个十年起，外部环境出现了四个巨大变化。一是中国经济总量赶超欧盟，同时欧盟对华贸易逆差长期维持在3000亿欧元左右。二是美国完全改变对华政策，从所谓的接触遏制改为全面遏制。欧洲是美国的盟友，其外交政策也不得不开始转向。三是全球重返大国地缘竞争，俄乌冲突爆发。如果说双方建交时，欧盟对中国盟友的定位非常清晰，那么到现在，则至少是双非：既非盟友，也非敌人，并且还在很多领域是竞争对手。四是特朗普以大胜再度当选，标志着特朗普化的美国已经成为长期趋势。

前三项变化已行之有年，中欧也在相互调整适应，其影响的边际效应已经展现。但第四个变化则是全新的，并将成为未来正面影响中欧关系的长期机会窗口。但由于特朗普2.0起手式对中欧关系的不同处理：以硬对欧，以软对华，使得中欧之间同样也存在一个短期的、迅速改善关系的重要机会窗口。

我们首先看拉开帷幕的特朗普2.0何以以硬对欧，以软对华。

特朗普何以对盟友如此强硬？

从经验角度，欧洲认为特朗普的当选会对其安全、经济、全球议题（如气候保护）带来巨大冲击和损害，尤其是对西方软实力价值观的普世性和正当性的否定。但考虑到双方根深蒂固的盟友传统和面对中国的共同挑战，欧盟对特朗普2.0还是有所期待。

然而特朗普2.0显然是超出欧洲人想象的升级版。先是特朗普加码要求北约盟友把军费开支从2%提高到5%，否则不会提供安全保护。考虑到欧洲的政治和经济现实，这根本是不可能完成的。比如以德国为例，5%意味着2000亿欧元的支出，但整个国家财政预算也不过4900亿欧元，相当于预算总额的40%。目前德国军费开支连年上升也仅仅达到800亿欧元。

随后，其目标竟指向盟友的主权和领土，包括加拿大、巴拿马和丹麦的格陵兰岛，而且还不排除使用武力，并一再声称这绝不是开玩笑。这种做法完全超出了欧洲盟友的底线：毕竟涉及领土和主权的战争正在欧洲爆发，欧洲对此完全不可接受。

不管这是否是特朗普的谈判手段：提出离谱要价占据谈判上风，以让对方妥协，仅这种方式就已经极大损害了美国一手打造的、欧洲竭力维持的国际秩序的基础，更使得欧洲应对俄乌冲突缺少了正当性。

最后则是对特朗普当选立下汗马功劳、有“第二副总统”和“第一好友”之称的马斯克公然以各种方式支持欧洲极右政治人物，以此干预欧洲主要国家的内政。对即将举行的德国大选，马斯克称总理朔尔茨应“立即辞职”。与此同时，他全力支持极右德国选择党，称该党是德国“最后的希望火花”。对另一个重要盟友英国，他则呼吁首相斯塔默辞职，提前举行选举，甚至进行了一项关于“美国是否应该将英国人民从暴政中解放出来”的民意调查。

至于特朗普本人，则借就职仪式，邀请欧洲的极右政治人物参加，却将传统盟友的执政党拒之门外。特朗普在第一任期就毫不掩饰对极右政治人物的支持，不过这一次手段更加猛烈。
特朗普的言行令全球震惊之余还有困惑：何以他要率先对盟友下手？

其实，特朗普的言行非常符合逻辑。

第一，盟友是美国统治下的世界最大受益者。它们不仅和美国一起制订规则，还是美国霸主地位的重要支撑力量。为此，二战后几十年来，美国也愿意或者不在乎这些盟友从自己身上获利，哪怕是搭顺风车。比如军费开支长期不足，让美国为自己承担更大的安全成本。还有大量、长期的贸易顺差：2023年高达1580亿欧元。

第二，战后美国领导、盟友跟随的格局使得各盟友对美国依赖颇深。面对美国的为所欲为实际上没有多少讨价还价的还手之力，往往是只动动口就不得不妥协。这和俄罗斯、伊朗、朝鲜等国不同，它们和美国没有什么利益交集，也对美国毫不依赖。要想搞定这些国家难度大，成本高、风险难测，弄不好反蚀一把米。

在特朗普的眼里，盟友不仅个个富裕有利可图，而且还无反抗之力，可谓“我为刀俎”，更何况它们还有占美国便宜的“原罪”。这样的“鱼肉”不吃简直是罪过。

或许有人认为，特朗普只是个案，是特例，欧洲可以让步换时间。四年以后，特朗普就会从历史舞台上消失，自由主义的美国又会回来。但事实却是特朗普化的美国已经是历史趋势，他是在被判有罪、品德也有严重问题，甚至被他任命的参谋长联席会议主席马克·米利称为“法西斯主义者”的背景下，仍然得到多数美国人拥护和支持才重返白宫的。共和党已被极右民粹主义者占据，他们价值理念和特朗普一致而且个人品德瑕疵较少。这样的人物更能获得美国民众的认可。

更重要的是，特朗普并非美国特例，同样也是美国传统的产物。美国1776年宣布独立，1789年制定宪法才成为一个联邦国家。但12年后就以海盗为由远征今利比亚的的黎波里，这也是美国第一次试图颠覆一个外国政府。然后又过了12年，美国试图吞并当时的霸主英国控制下的加拿大。自此以后，必须控制整个北美洲大陆的信念被称为美国的“昭昭天命”。也就是在这种天命的“指引”下，随后以武力吞并了墨西哥三分之二的领土。今天特朗普要吞并距北美更近的格陵兰岛也是这种历史传统的延续，早在美国收购阿拉斯加后就把目标指向格陵兰岛。富兰克林和杜鲁门两位总统都看中此地，杜鲁门政府曾提出一亿美元的收购价。

特朗普的关税战也不是什么历史新鲜事。1929年5月28日，美国众议院通过了《斯姆特-霍利关税法案》，将进口商品的平均关税提高到47%。也正是美国首先发起了针对欧洲的贸易战，才引爆人类历史上空前的经济危机。

可以说今天的美国出现特朗普，既有历史基因，也有现实突变，已经构成对欧洲的巨大挑战。

特朗普2.0何以对华示好在先？

和对欧洲盟友强硬不同，上任前后的特朗普对华则不断示好。他就职之时，非同寻常地打破惯例邀请中国国家领导人出席就职典礼，中国也是罕见地首次派政府高级代表团莅临盛事。

不仅如此，特朗普在就职前一天还恢复了TIKTOK的服务，延后75天实施禁令，并提议中美成立合资公司，各占50%的股份。而在就职前三天更按传统和中国领导人进行通话。也就在几乎同一天，美国媒体透露特朗普要在就职一百天之内访问中国或邀请中国领导人访问美国。要知道，中美建交以来双方唯一没有互访的就是拜登政府时期。此前，他更在就职前的记者招待会上表示：“美中两国联手可以解决世界上所有问题”。

如果仅看这一波接一波的橄榄枝，都会给世界以错觉：仿佛正在进行全球战略博弈的是美欧而不是中美。当然事实并非如此。

中美是结构性战略矛盾。美国作为守成国家，确保霸主地位是其国家最高利益，它把中国视为唯一有挑战能力的竞争者而全力遏制。中国则要排除一切阻力，全力发展实现中华民族伟大复兴。这决定了不管美国谁执政，都要对中国进行全方位打压，区别只是方式和手段不同，结果也会有所不同。

事实上，如果回顾特朗普第一任期，中美也是高开低走。第一年实现亲密互访，第二年就开打史无前例的贸易战，双方关系冲突动荡。西方舆论战一向污指中国是东西方对抗冲突的原因，但实际上中美从持续几十年的接触加遏制转向完全遏制就始自特朗普出任美国总统。美欧关系前所未有的动荡也是一样。

特朗普再度胜选之后，出乎意料的是对盟友示之以硬，对中国则示之以软，在全球可谓软硬兼施。对于盟友，由于利益和历史因素，不会走向摊牌，更容易达成妥协，所以先拉高要价，以获得更好的谈判地位。对于中国这个对手，谈判和妥协都不容易，故先示好，以退为进。因为美国很清楚，中国为了减少冲突、尽可能稳定中美关系或者拖延双方摊牌的时间，会积极回应美国的示好。在这个过程中，美国正好可以狮子大开口，对中国漫天要价，以获得比对抗这种方式更大的利益。

其次，特朗普是打着“美国优先”的旗号获胜的。他在就职讲话中也再次将此理念放到突出位置。因此他最急迫要做的事情有两个方面。

一是国内事务优先，要对国内“拨乱反正”。就职当天仅紧急状态就宣布两个：南部边境紧急状态，派军队进行大规模的非法移民驱逐；能源紧急状态，撤销绿色新政，以钻探石油。其他的还包括把贩毒集团指定为由外国主导的恐怖组织，运用联邦和州执法部门全力打击。他自己声称第一百天要发布一百个行政命令。从发布命令到执行命令、完成命令将占去他任期初期主要的精力和时间。

二是对外要甩掉包袱。这主要是正在进行中的俄乌冲突。其他还有再度退出各种国际组织和协定，比如《巴黎气候协定》、世界卫生组织。这其中需要中国协助的则是俄乌冲突。

对于特朗普而言，这两方面要取得成效都需要时间，俄乌冲突还需要中国出力。为此在这个阶段特朗普也只能对中国隐忍，避免精力分散。

他会以示好的方式和中国进行谈判，并提出从经贸到外交的要价，既可争取时间解决最紧迫的问题，也试图达到压中国做出更大让步的目的。这一阶段过后，特朗普2.0时期中美关系的真面貌就会完全暴露。

中国对此有着清醒的认识，更何况中美除了结构性矛盾，未来四年影响中美关系的因素还有很多。

一是特朗普本身不可预测，反复无常，中方对他缺乏信任。

二是不管是特朗普第一个任期还是随后的拜登任期，都发生过体制内盟友或者官僚自行其是并造成严重后果的事件。特朗普时期是孟晚舟事件，严重冲击了中美关系，但特朗普并不知情。拜登时期则是同党议长佩罗西窜访台湾。虽然拜登并不赞成，但却无力制止。现在特朗普团队虽然忠诚度很高，但对华多数是极端鹰派，很难排除利用自己的职权对中国发难，特别是在台湾问题上，从而制造冲突。

三是突发事件的出现。全球化时代，各国的相互影响和联系非常密切。如果两国关系良好，出现一些问题往往大事化小，小事化了。但如果关系紧张，小事也会升级到国家层面。比如特朗普第一任期席卷全球的疫情。二十一世纪以来，疫情已经常态化，几年一次，唯独这一次严重影响了中美关系，根本原因还是在于双方的关系已经恶化。拜登时期发生的气球事件也是如此。假如是澳大利亚的气球，根本就不会是问题。

因此，未来四年，中美之间突发事件既难以避免，发生时也往往会被政治化而大幅升级。不过考虑到特朗普的商人性格和对经济利益的追求，问题恶性程度不会高于佩罗西窜访台湾这种严重冲击中国红线的事件。虽然不可预测的冲突可能增多，但只要不是价值观和安全这些零和博弈的领域，总归是能够妥协。

对于中国而言，对内抓住历史机遇推动改革加速发展，对外加大力度拉住欧洲、打破拜登时期对中国周边的围堵，进一步改善与英国、日本、韩国、澳大利亚以及印度的关系。正如特朗普第一任期期间，中国迅速缩小了和美国的总体差距。现在特朗普2.0来了，中国也一定不会错过。

中欧怎样抓住机会窗口？

中欧都很清楚，从长期来看，特朗普化的美国对双方都是威胁，彼此需要联手合作对冲。但从中国的立场来讲，第一年甚至可能包括第二年，美国对欧洲强硬，对华示软的格局都有可能维持。这个短窗口期对中国更为有利。同时欧洲对美民意和政治压力也更能促使双方尽快达成阶段性重大成果。

这其中最具地缘政治和地缘经济效果的就是重启中欧投资协定。这个协定历经七年才谈判完成。

此协议对中欧之重要，以至于拜登上任仅两个月，就利用大西洋主义和价值观两大因素迫使欧洲加入美国制裁中国的行列，从而成功将此协议冻结。

现在面对特朗普化的美国，最有效、最具象征意义、成本也最低的做法就是重启这个协定。它能够实实在在地显示中欧真正摆脱双方的分歧而务实合作，两强联手将有效对冲特朗普2.0时代带来的冲击。

其次，双方举行高峰会谈之时，就支持和捍卫全球化、自由贸易、全球秩序、全球治理包括气候变化、应对大规模疫情发表联合公报。由于这些都是特朗普化的美国所强烈反对的，中欧联手应对美国的意味深长。除了政治宣示，还应该有具体的指标性合作议题。比如以推动绿色转型为目的，欧洲取消对中国电动车的关税，中国也相应取消对欧洲的反制措施。

至于中国，也应把解禁华为、部分或全部取消对中国光刻机设备的限制、推动双方在“一带一路”上的合作列入双方的会谈议题。无论是否能够达成，双方仅就这些议题进行谈判本身就能产生巨大的外交效应，中欧都可进可退。

最后，中方借特朗普要改变对乌克兰援助政策的契机，推动结束这场冲突，以消解这个中欧关系改善的障碍。

法国总统马克龙曾说欧洲太天真了。确实，它一再宣称只有实行西式民主制度的国家才能相信，才可预期，才可依赖，西方民主国家之间的合作才有安全。为此欧盟还对中国提出“去风险”，向美国对华政策倾斜。但现实却是不可依赖、不可相信、不可预期、反复无常并给欧洲带来巨大威胁和损害的恰是美国。

欧洲不明白的是，决定一个国家行为的并不是制度，而是它的文明基因。中国主导东亚几千年，和周边国家也有矛盾和冲突，但并没有对周边国家的主权造成威胁，更重要的是维持了亚洲的持久和平。类似于欧洲大陆持续不断、战火连天的场景在中国主导的亚洲并不存在。
现在面对特朗普和特朗普化的美国，欧洲难道还不应该清醒过来，并联手各国共同应对当今世界最大的危险吗？当历史的机会之窗打开时，端看中欧双方的魄力和眼光了。