特朗普出任总统后俄美关系的发展前景On the Prospects for the Development of Russian-American Relations Under Donald Trump

Predicting the development of Russian-American relations under D. Trump’s second presidency is an extremely difficult task due to a number of factors, including his unpredictability and the inconsistency of his campaign statements. Nevertheless, there are several possible trends based on his previous presidency and pre-election rhetoric that will have a decisive impact on the formation of Russian-American relations during the presidency of D. Trump:

1. Trump, as a pragmatist, is likely to seek specific agreements with Russia, treating the relationship as a business negotiation. He will be willing to compromise in exchange for what he believes is in the interests of the United States.

2. Trump tends to view foreign policy through the prism of economic benefits. He intends to show interest in trade, investment and cooperation in specific economic projects with Russia.

3. Trump, unlike many US politicians, is less inclined to focus on issues of democracy, human rights and violations of international law in Russia. His approach is more likely to be pragmatic than ideological.

4. Trump will try to make attempts to reduce tensions with Russia, possibly through negotiations and face-to-face meetings with the Russian leadership.

5. Trump, as in his first term, will seek to redefine the role of the United States in international organizations and alliances, which could potentially affect relations with Russia. He will be less prone to confrontation and more open to a multipolar world.

6. But even if there is a desire to improve relations with Russia, Trump will have to take into account harsh criticism from political opponents, the media, and parts of American society. This may limit his ability to radically reverse his policy towards Russia.

7. Contradictions are also likely to arise between Trump’s views and the positions of his own administration, especially on foreign policy issues.

8. Trump’s personal qualities, namely his unpredictability and impulsiveness, can bring an element of chaos to these relationships.

In addition, Russian-American relations will be influenced by a number of external factors, such as:

• Developments in the international arena, conflicts and alliances will affect the possibility of improving or deteriorating relations between the United States and Russia.

• Russia’s willingness to compromise and dialogue will also play a key role in shaping bilateral relations.

Possible scenarios for the development of Russian-American relations under Trump

Based on the above aspects, we can assume a number of possible scenarios for the development of these relations.

1. Rapprochement and “reset”: Trump may try to conduct a “reset” in relations with Russia aimed at normalizing relations and establishing a more constructive dialogue. However, the success of this scenario will depend on the willingness of both sides to compromise.

2. Limited cooperation: a scenario is possible in which cooperation between the United States and Russia will be limited, affecting only specific areas of mutual interest (for example, the fight against terrorism, nuclear security).

3. Maintaining the status quo: It is also possible to maintain the current status quo with periodic outbreaks of tension and attempts to engage in dialogue on specific issues.

4. Deterioration of relations: despite the desire for a “deal”, the scenario of deterioration of relations is not excluded if Trump faces harsh opposition from political opponents or if Russia takes actions that he considers unacceptable.

The most likely options are 1 and 2, or a combination of them. But it is likely that over time, depending on how the geopolitical situation in the world develops, a transition to 3 or even 4 options is possible.

Nevertheless, it should be borne in mind that D. Trump’s victory in the US presidential election is, in fact, a “window of opportunity” for Russian–American relations, which are currently at their lowest point in history. Trump has repeatedly demonstrated pragmatism towards Russia, and unlike Biden and other Democrats, he is ready to respect Russia and its president, and this is a good basis for building mutually acceptable and productive bilateral relations. Since the Republicans will simultaneously gain control of two chambers of the US Congress as a result of the 2024 elections, that is, Between the Senate and the House of Representatives, Trump’s maneuver towards Russia may be much greater, including the lifting and easing of anti-Russian sanctions, which is extremely important for the normalization of Russian-American relations.

Probably, the general line of the United States towards rivalry with Russia will not change, but there is a chance that the confrontation will acquire understandable and predictable features. It is also safe to say that under Trump, the United States will finally move away from building liberal hegemony and begin to build its foreign policy primarily on the basis of realism. In other words, they will be able to recognize the fact of the emergence of a multipolar world, which may endow American policy towards Russia, China and other centers of power with greater pragmatism, restraint and constructiveness.

At the same time, possible recurrences of the current US foreign policy should not be discounted, because the entire American power system cannot be rebuilt overnight, and Trump’s strong-willed, impulsive nature. They may be fraught with a new escalation of tension for Russia and the world. 

The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the development of relations between Russia and the United States  

The conflict in Ukraine will remain a key aspect of US-Russian relations, at least at first. Trump has previously stated his role as a “great peacemaker” in the Ukrainian conflict if he wins the presidential election. This means that even before taking office in January 2025, Trump and his team members will be in close contact with the leadership of Russia and Ukraine.

The nature of future U.S.-Russian relations will largely depend on the settlement of the conflict. After Trump’s victory in the presidential election, the US role in the crisis in Ukraine is likely to change. Unlike the Democrats, Trump will not seek a “strategic defeat” of Russia and will try to de-escalate the situation around it without prejudice to the interests of the United States and its military-industrial complex.

Trump will probably try to reconcile Moscow and Kiev as soon as possible and thereby show himself to American voters and the whole world as an outstanding peacemaker. Trump needs peace in Ukraine for several reasons. First, Trump is unhappy with the fact that since 2022, the United States has been spending huge amounts of money on Ukraine that could have been used for other purposes. Secondly, he intends to put Biden and the Democrats in an unfavorable light, blaming them for starting a bloody conflict. Thirdly, Trump wants to go down in history as a politician who saved humanity from a global war. Unlike Biden, who “inherited” Ukraine during his time in the Obama administration, Trump has nothing to do with the current Kiev regime and is not personally interested in its unlimited support. Moreover, the Democrats, accusing Trump of putting pressure on Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, launched impeachment proceedings against Trump in 2019, which he hardly forgot.

The main difference between D. Trump and J. Biden on the Ukrainian issue is that Biden was generally ready to follow Kiev’s strategy, agreeing with V. Zelensky’s positions on the main issues of conducting military operations and the terms of the agreement with Moscow, while Trump intends to play his own role in settlement issues, not focusing on some kind of the “Zelensky plan” and based on the fact that the interests of Ukraine and the interests of the United States may differ significantly. Moreover, if necessary, Trump is ready to exert political pressure on Kiev, which was not typical for Biden. However, at the moment, Trump’s positions on the Russian-Ukrainian settlement remain extremely vague, and therefore it is difficult to conclude how much more active the US role could be a factor in bringing a settlement closer.

Most likely, in the near future, we may see concrete proposals from the Trump administration to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. But the intransigence of Moscow and Kiev, even in the face of Washington’s ultimatum, which Trump and members of his team spoke about, could lead to an even greater escalation of the conflict and an even greater degradation of Russian-American relations. We must not forget that the so-called deal of the century, proposed by Trump in 2020 to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, has completely failed, despite promising statements.

If the Trump administration’s “peacekeeping” efforts fail, the conflict in Ukraine could move into an even more dangerous stage, fraught with a major war. However, there may be another scenario in which the current status quo in the Ukrainian conflict will persist for months or years, despite Washington’s so-called “peacekeeping” efforts.

Moscow and Washington will make joint efforts to end the conflict in Ukraine after the inauguration of the US President-elect D. Trump. In addition, he believes that the United States will demand that President of Ukraine V. Zelensky hold new elections.

On the reaction of the Russian leadership to D. Trump’s victory  

The first reaction in Moscow to Donald Trump’s victory can be described as very cautious optimism. American policy towards Russia has always been bipartisan. The irremovable “deep State” plays a major role in the development and implementation of this policy. Not only the executive branch, but also the legislative branch of the United States participates in international affairs, and many decisions of the White House can be adjusted by Congress. It is clear that powerful political and bureaucratic inertia inevitably slows down any shifts in the foreign policy course of the leading power in the Western world. In addition, D. Trump’s first term in office showed that he is not a “pro—Russian” politician — it was under him that the United States actively fought against Nord Stream 2 and began systematically using a wide range of economic sanctions against Moscow.

In addition, Russia understands that Trump will try to weaken Russia’s ties with China, which is his main geopolitical opponent. But it is unlikely that the Russian leadership will worsen these ties in the hope of a possible improvement in relations with the United States and the West as a whole, remembering how the West has repeatedly deceived Russia by making it certain tempting offers.
Nevertheless, the Russian leadership associates certain expectations with Trump’s coming to power, because he is not inclined to divide the world into “democrats” and “autocrats” and has never indulged in offensive rhetoric against V. Putin. On the contrary, during the election campaign, Trump repeatedly stressed his interest in restoring dialogue with Moscow and reaching agreements on disputed issues. At a minimum, it is possible to predict the beginning of a dialogue, which has been practically absent in recent years. However, the dialogue itself does not necessarily imply a rapprochement of the positions of the two countries where these positions now diverge.

A step towards Russia could be the unfreezing of Russian assets and the partial lifting of sanctions, which have a very negative impact on the Russian economy. Currently, the key challenge for Russia is, of course, the lack of access to some Western, including American, machinery, equipment, and goods, which greatly hinder the development of the Russian economy, pharmaceutical industry, and affect the healthcare system.

The United States can help Russia develop trade routes and infrastructure in the Arctic in exchange for a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine.: Such an initiative would include lifting sanctions on the Northern Sea Route, as well as encouraging Western investment in the project.

In addition, aircraft wear in Russia has reached a critical level, and it is necessary to disassemble old aircraft in order to maintain the rest of the fleet. The same applies to trains, low-tonnage chemicals, and machine tool construction. There are no domestic machines, and the products of their non-Western manufacturers do not meet the requirements of enterprises. The solution to these problems is moving slowly.

If the sanctions are lifted, the economy will begin to return to normal. Accordingly, those industries that are currently heavily overloaded with gray import schemes will return to their usual relationships. This will reduce prices and allow the Bank of Russia to abandon such a high key rate. This means that loans will become more affordable, and business and the economy will begin to develop, GDP will grow, and the ruble exchange rate will strengthen. Ultimately, for end consumers, this can cause the process of stopping inflation and improving the purchasing power of citizens.

Conclusion  

Under Trump, Russian-American relations are likely to be characterized by pragmatism, a desire for a “deal,” and less emphasis on ideological differences. However, internal political constraints, contradictions in the administration, and Trump’s unpredictability make the future of this relationship extremely uncertain. Much will depend on the willingness of both sides to engage in constructive dialogue and compromise. It is also worth remembering that Trump’s policy towards Russia has not always been consistent and may change depending on circumstances. It is also unlikely that Trump will be able to weaken Russian-Chinese relations in exchange for promises to improve Russia’s relations with the United States and the West in general.

由于特朗普的不可预测性及其竞选言论的矛盾性等诸多因素，预测特朗普第二任总统任期内俄美关系的发展是一项极其困难的任务。尽管如此，根据他之前的总统任期和竞选言论判断，还是可以确定几个可能的趋势，这些趋势将对特朗普总统任期内俄美关系的形成产生决定性影响：1.作为实用主义者，特朗普很可能会寻求与俄罗斯达成具体协议，将两国关系视为商业谈判。他将准备以妥协来换取他认为最符合美国利益的东西。2.特朗普倾向于从经济利益的角度来看待外交政策。他有意对与俄罗斯的贸易、投资和具体经济项目合作表现出兴趣。3.与许多美国政治家不同，特朗普不太可能强调俄罗斯的民主、人权和违反国际法的行为。他的做法可能更务实，而非意识形态。4.特朗普将努力尝试缓和与俄罗斯的紧张关系，可能通过谈判和与俄罗斯领导人面对面会谈。5.与第一任期一样，特朗普将寻求重新定义美国在国际组织和联盟中的角色，这可能会影响到与俄罗斯的关系。他将减少对抗，对多极世界持更加开放的态度。6.但即使特朗普希望改善与俄罗斯的关系，他也不得不考虑来自政治对手、媒体和美国社会部分人士的严厉批评。这可能会限制他彻底改变对俄政策的能力。7.特朗普的观点与其政府的立场之间也可能出现矛盾，尤其是在对外政策问题上。8.特朗普的个人特质，即他的不可预测性和冲动性，可能会给这种关系带来混乱因素。

此外，俄美关系还将受到一些外部因素的影响，如国际上的事态发展、冲突和联盟，可能影响两国关系改善或恶化。

俄罗斯的妥协和对话的准备程度也将在俄美关系形成中发挥关键性作用。

特朗普总统任期内俄美关系发展的几个可能场景   

根据上述方面，可以假设这些关系发展的若干可能情况。1.接近与 “重启”：特朗普可能会尝试对俄关系进行 “重启”，旨在实现关系正常化并建立更具建设性的对话。然而，这一方案能否成功将取决于双方是否愿意妥协。2.有限合作：俄美之间的合作可能仅限于共同感兴趣的特定领域（如反恐、核安全）。3.维持现状：也有可能维持现状，偶尔爆发紧张局势，并尝试就特定问题进行对话。4.关系恶化：尽管希望达成 “交易”，但如果特朗普面临政治对手的强烈反对，或者俄罗斯采取了他无法接受的行动，不排除关系恶化的可能。

最有可能的方案是1和2，或两者的组合。不过，随着时间的推移，根据世界地缘政治局势的发展，也有可能过渡到第3种甚至第4种方案。

然而，应该牢记的是，特朗普在美国总统大选中获胜，实际上是俄美关系的 “机会之窗”，如今俄美关系正处于历史最低点。特朗普多次在言辞上表现出对俄罗斯的务实态度；与拜登和其他民主党人不同，他愿意尊重俄罗斯及其总统，这已经为建立双方都能接受的、富有成效的双边关系奠定了良好基础。由于2024年大选后共和党将同时控制美国国会参众两院，特朗普在俄罗斯问题上的操作空间可能会更大，包括解除和放松对俄制裁问题，这对俄美关系正常化极为重要。

美国与俄罗斯竞争的总路线可能不会改变，但对抗有可能呈现出明确和可预测的特征。也可以说，特朗普领导下的美国将最终摆脱建立自由主义霸权的做法，开始主要以现实主义为基础制定外交政策。换句话说，他们将能够承认多极世界的出现，这可能会赋予美国对俄罗斯、中国和其他权力中心的政策以更大的实用主义、克制和建设性。

与此同时，也不应忽视美国现行外交政策可能出现的反复，整个美国权力体系的重组不可能一蹴而就，而且特朗普意志坚强，性格冲动。对俄罗斯和世界而言，这可能会导致紧张局势的新一轮升级。

俄乌冲突对俄美关系的影响  

乌克兰冲突仍将是俄美关系的一个关键方面，至少在初期如此。特朗普此前曾宣称，如果他赢得总统大选，他将在乌克兰冲突中扮演 “伟大的和平缔造者”的角色。这意味着即使在 2025 年1月上任之前，特朗普及其团队成员也将与俄罗斯和乌克兰领导人保持密切接触。

冲突的解决将在很大程度上决定未来俄美关系的性质。特朗普在总统大选中获胜后，美国在乌克兰危机中的角色可能会发生变化。与民主党人不同，特朗普不会寻求俄罗斯的 “战略失败”，而是会在不损害美国及其军工复合体利益的前提下，努力缓和周边局势。

特朗普可能会试图尽快让莫斯科和基辅和解，从而向美国选民和全世界展示自己是一位杰出的和平缔造者形象。特朗普需要乌克兰和平有几个原因。首先，特朗普对美国自2022 年以来一直在乌克兰问题上花费巨额资金感到不满，而这些资金本可以用在其他方面；其次，他打算让拜登和民主党人出丑，指责他们挑起了流血冲突；第三，特朗普希望作为使人类免于全球战争的政治家载入史册。与奥巴马政府时期在乌克兰留下“遗产”的拜登不同，特朗普与基辅现政权没有任何关系，他本人也对基辅的无限支持不感兴趣。此外，民主党人指责特朗普向乌克兰总统泽连斯基施压，于2019 年启动了对特朗普的弹劾程序，这一点他不可能忘记。

特朗普与拜登在乌克兰问题上的主要区别在于，拜登准备总体上与基辅的战略保持一致，在军事行动的主要问题上以及与莫斯科的协议条款上与泽连斯基的立场保持一致，而特朗普则打算在解决乌克兰问题上发挥自己的作用，不把重点放在某些“泽连斯基的计划 ”上，而是从乌克兰的利益与美国的利益可能存在重大分歧这一事实出发。此外，如果有必要，特朗普准备对基辅施加政治压力，这在拜登身上并不常见。然而，目前特朗普在俄乌问题解决方案上的立场仍极为模糊，因此很难断定美国更积极的角色能在多大程度上推动俄乌问题的解决。

在不远的将来，我们很可能会看到特朗普政府提出解决乌克兰冲突的具体建议。但莫斯科和基辅的不妥协态度，即使面对特朗普及其团队成员一直在谈论的华盛顿的最后通牒，也可能导致冲突进一步升级，俄美关系进一步恶化。我们不应忘记，尽管特朗普在2020年提出了解决巴以冲突的所谓世纪协议，但这一协议已完全失败，尽管他曾许下诺言。

如果特朗普政府的“维和”努力失败，乌克兰冲突可能会发展到一个更加危险的阶段，并可能爆发大规模战争。然而，也可能出现另一种情况，即尽管华盛顿做出了所谓的维和努力，但乌克兰冲突的现状仍将持续数月甚至数年。

美国当选总统特朗普就职后，莫斯科和华盛顿将共同努力结束乌克兰冲突。此外，特朗普认为美国将要求乌克兰总统泽连斯基举行新的选举。

俄罗斯领导层对特朗普胜选的反应

莫斯科对特朗普获胜的第一反应可以说是谨慎乐观。美国的对俄政策一直具有两党性质。在这一政策的制定和实施过程中扮演重要角色的是不可动摇的 “深层国家”。参与国际事务的不仅有美国行政部门，还有美国立法部门，白宫的许多决定都可以由国会调整。显然，强大的政治和官僚惯性必然会阻碍西方世界头号大国外交政策路线的任何转变。此外，特朗普的第一个任期表明，他并不是一个“亲俄”的政治家——正是在他的领导下，美国积极反对北溪-2号管道，并开始系统地对莫斯科实施广泛的经济制裁。

此外，俄罗斯意识到特朗普将试图削弱俄罗斯与中国——美国的主要地缘政治对手的关系。但考虑到西方曾多次以各种诱人的条件欺骗俄罗斯，俄罗斯领导层不太可能为了改善与美国乃至西方的关系而恶化与中国的关系。

然而，俄罗斯领导人对特朗普的上台抱有一定的期望，因为他并不倾向于将世界分为 “民主主义者”和“专制主义者”，也从不允许自己使用攻击普京的言辞。相反，在竞选期间，特朗普一再强调他有意与莫斯科恢复对话，并就有争议的问题达成协议。至少，我们可以预言，近年来几乎缺席的对话即将开始。然而，对话本身并不一定意味着两国目前存在分歧的立场会趋于一致。

向俄罗斯迈出的一步可能是解冻俄罗斯资产和部分解除制裁，制裁对俄罗斯经济产生了极为不利的影响。 现在，俄罗斯面临的主要挑战当然是无法获得一些西方（包括美国）的机械、设备和商品，这严重阻碍了俄罗斯经济、制药业的发展，并影响了医疗保健系统。

美国可以帮助俄罗斯开发北极地区的贸易路线和基础设施，以换取中止在乌克兰的军事行动：这一举措将包括解除对北方海路的制裁，以及刺激西方对该项目的投资。

此外，俄罗斯飞机的折旧率已达到临界水平，必须拆卸旧飞机才能维持机队的其他部分。火车、低吨位化学和机床制造也是如此。没有国产机床，非西方制造商的产品也不符合企业的要求。这些问题的解决进展缓慢。

如果解除制裁，经济将开始正常化。因此，那些目前被灰色进口计划严重挤占的行业将恢复正常关系。这将降低物价，使俄罗斯银行能够放弃如此高的关键利率。这意味着贷款将变得更容易负担，企业和经济将开始发展，国内生产总值将增长，卢布汇率将走强。最终，对于最终消费者而言，这可能会导致通货膨胀的停止和公民购买力的提高。