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航天业新军

文|Joseph U Ibeh 非洲空间(Space in Africa)高级分析师 翻译|齐晓彤

 导 读 

非盟将太空科技视为为期十年的“非洲科学、技术与创新战略”(STISA 2024)实施中最关键的一环,也是非洲的长期转型计划“2063年议程”最关键的部分之一。非洲空间计划着重于四大方面:地球观测、太空学与天文学、卫星通信以及导航与定位

非洲航天市场迎来新的参与者

非盟推进“非洲空间计划”

更多非洲私营企业掘金航天业

外国企业商机

卫星项目在非洲航天业占主导

非洲大陆的航天合作以双边形式开展

非洲航天业的发展有目共睹,在国家层面和大洲层面都有越来越多的政府、企业、学术机构参与其中。非洲航天卫星总数呈指数级增长,2009年非洲发射了9颗卫星,2019年底这个数字增长至
41颗。非洲的卫星发射历史长达21年,而仅在2019年,非洲就发射了8颗卫星,创历史新高。

非洲航天市场迎来新的参与者

2019年更多非洲新兴航天国家的出现(即有更多非洲国家成功发射卫星进入太空),标志着航空事业迎来了一批新的参与者。

目前为止,已有11个非洲国家发射卫星进入太空,比十年前也就是2009年的两倍还要多,而2008年底仅有8个国家成功发射卫星。埃及发射了9颗卫星,取代南非位列第一,南非以8颗卫星的傲人成绩紧随其后;阿尔及利亚、尼日利亚各发射了6颗卫星,位居第三;摩洛哥发射了三颗卫星;安哥拉、埃塞俄比亚、加纳、肯尼亚、卢旺达和苏丹各发射一颗卫星。在政府和企业的携手合作下,非洲共发射了三颗卫星:Rascom-QAF
1,Rascom-QAF 1R和New Dawn卫星(现更名为Intelsat 28,由国际通信卫星组织管理)。

非洲航天媒体咨询公司Space
in
Africa发布的《非洲航天业2019年度报告》中的数据表明,到2024年底,将有超过18个非洲国家发射卫星。报告显示,毛里求斯、突尼斯、刚果民主共和国、科特迪瓦、塞内加尔、乌干达和津巴布韦等国家都已制定了2024年发射卫星的计划。

非盟推进“非洲空间计划”

非盟正在大力推行一个覆盖全大洲的航天项目,该项目是非洲政府及国家首脑在2016年1月通过的非洲空间政策与战略计划(以下简称“非洲空间计划”)的一部分。非盟将太空科技视为为期十年的“非洲科学、技术与创新战略”(STISA
2024)实施中最关键的一环,也是非洲的长期转型计划“2063年议程”最关键的部分之一。
非洲空间计划着重于四大方面:地球观测、太空学与天文学、卫星通信以及导航与定位。为了提高计划的实施效率,非盟于2018年1月29日通过了建立非洲航天局(AfAS)的法令。2019年2月,埃及中标成为非洲航天局总部的所在地。

更多非洲私营企业掘金航天业

非洲蓬勃发展的航天业既有政府的参与,也有私营企业的参与。 越来越多的非洲私营企业在从事航天技术开发,并为区域及国际市场提供基于航天技术的服务。

非洲空间最新一项研究概述了34家非洲领先的商业航天企业和“新太空”(NewSpace)初创公司的基本情况,侧重于公司规模、财务状况、投资历史及产品与服务。非洲航天业的佼佼者与他国企业同处国际太空生态系统中并互有关联。

《非洲新太空工业报告》(African
NewSpace Industry
Report)指出,非洲“新太空”(NewSpace)公司已从非洲新兴航天业的小树苗成长为参天大树,率先推动航天技术和服务在非洲大陆上的应用,并在航天市场进行战略部署。该报告指出产业下游即卫星服务市场较为成熟,商业活动集中在卫星通讯服务、地球观测与遥感服务,定位与监测服务、地理空间分析与卫星地面站设备。非洲在卫星子系统、有效载荷制造等产业上游市场也积累了一定的专家经验,多数非洲“新太空”(NewSpace)公司都是核心组件和仪器供应商,产品投放国际卫星市场;只有少数在非洲孵化的“新太空”(NewSpace)公司做卫星发射相关的业务。鲜有企业涉足太空服务或太空旅行相关的业务。
非洲新兴商业中心的分布可以从“新太空”公司的选址中略见一斑。这些公司中有二十一家位于南非,四家位于尼日利亚,四家位于毛里求斯,两家位于埃及,肯尼亚、苏丹和突尼斯各有一家。

该研究指出,大多数非洲商业航天企业向机构投资者、风险投资基金和天使投资人筹集股权投资,有些企业则选择自筹资金而不进行融资。 在35家备受关注的公司中,有21家募集了股权投资,有8家在自筹资金,有4家主要靠政府资金支持,还有一家由一所大学独资控股。

外国企业商机

由于非洲航天业受到越来越多的关注,航天业各个细分市场为本土企业、外国企业带来商机,非洲新兴航天市场受到外国航天企业和全球领先卫星运营商的竞相追逐。

外企在上游卫星制造和发射领域占据主导地位,外企与非洲政府签署了卫星在轨交付的一揽子合同。41颗非洲卫星中,外资承包商建造了25颗,

41颗卫星全部由外资发射供应商在非洲以外地区发射。在非洲大陆完成交易最多的外资实体包括:空客防务与航天公司(法国)、中国长城工业集团有限公司(CGWIC)、RSC
Energia(俄罗斯)、萨里卫星技术有限公司(英国)和泰利斯阿莱尼亚航天公司(法国)。

下游市场既有本地企业参与,也有外资企业参与;有大企业,也有小企业。

非洲本土的卫星运营商和服务提供商,例如埃及上市运营商尼罗河卫星公司、泛非运营商Rascamstar有限公司、尼日利亚国有运营商尼日利亚通讯卫星公司、阿尔及利亚通讯卫星公司。阿尔及利亚通讯卫星公司由阿尔及利亚传输服务提供商Télédiffusion

d'Algérie与阿尔及利亚电信卫星ATS共同运营,与欧洲通信卫星组织Eutelsat、国际通信卫星组织Intelsat、卢森堡欧洲卫星公司SES、Yasat、英国卫星通信运营商Avanti等国际大型运营商既有竞争、又有合作。

许多中大型服务提供商、代理商和设备供应商都处在同一个价值链中,从而形成一个超越航天领域,涵盖电信、安防、运输、航空、海事、金融领域的广阔的卫星生态系统。

目前《非洲太空工业年度报告》对非洲太空经济的估值超过70亿美元,年增长率预计为7.3%。结合预计商业收入和政府预算,2024年非洲航天业估值将超过100亿美元。

卫星项目在非洲航天业占主导

为什么非洲在面临更为迫切难题的情况下还能实现航天经济的高速增长?答案是多方面的。
一些专家认为非洲航天科技的日益普及,究其原因在于非洲对跨越式发展的追求。
针对非洲广泛的基础设施短缺问题,专家认为航天具有弥补非洲基础设施不足的潜力,尤其是在电信、航空、海事、安全、教育、医疗卫生领域。发展航天科技还可以带动广泛的科学进步。

值得注意的是,非洲航天项目的重点在于为一些根本性问题提供解决方案,而不只关注太空旅游或在轨卫星的发展。
随着航天科学研究和天文学的迅速成熟,卫星项目在非洲航天业占主导地位。
非洲国家发射的41颗卫星包括17颗地球观测卫星、12颗技术示范和教育工程卫星、11颗通讯卫星、
1颗军用雷达卫星即俄罗斯制造的南非Kondor-E卫星。

企业正在积极挖掘商机,提供多种基于卫星的服务与产品,例如卫星电视、地球观测、卫星固定通信业务和卫星移动通信业务、全球卫星导航系统、卫星子系统、有效载荷以及地面站设备制造。《非洲太空工业报告》的数据显示,非洲航天业最大的市场是卫星电视,其次是卫星固定通信业务(FSS)、卫星移动通信业务(MSS)和全球卫星导航系统(GNSS)及类似服务。部分卫星运营商的年收入超过1亿美元。

非洲大陆的航天合作以双边形式开展

在南非的牵头下,除了卫星项目,非洲还大力发展航天科学研究与天文学。南非与博茨瓦纳、加纳、肯尼亚、马达加斯加、毛里求斯、莫桑比克、纳米比亚和赞比亚八个非洲国家合作,成为世界上最大的射电望远镜—平方公里阵列射电望远镜的所在地。该项目第一阶段预计耗资近10亿美元,将为设备制造商和供应商创造更多的市场机会。

得益于国际合作,非洲在资金、员工能力和技术获取方面取得飞跃式进展。

非洲航天计划的推行是建立在与法国、英国、俄罗斯和中国等技术先进的合作伙伴已有的双边合作的基础之上。欧洲航天局(欧洲太空总署)也是非洲航天工业发展的重要伙伴,标志着非洲大陆国际太空合作的典范,非洲与日本、印度和乌克兰的合作也在逐步跟上。尽管在非洲资源管理星座和非洲航天领导大会的框架内,存在一定程度的泛非航天合作,即非洲国家间的合作,但非洲大陆上的航天合作主要是以双边合作的形式与外国合作伙伴开展的。

英文版


Africa's Fast Rising Space Industry and Opportunities for Chinese Businesses

By Joseph U Ibeh  Senior Analyst at Space in Africa

Africa's
space industry is evolving as its parameters have expanded to include
more government actors, private ventures and academic institutions at
both national and continental levels are involved. The continent has
seen exponential growth in the total number of satellites in space, from
nine in 2009 to 41 at the end of 2019. The continent launched eight
satellites in 2019 alone, which is the highest ever launched in a
calendar year in its 21-year history of satellite launches.

In
2019, the industry further recorded an increase in the number of
spacefaring African nations (nations that have successfully launched a
satellite into space ) and welcomed new entrants to the league of
African nations with space ambitions. So far, 11 African countries have
launched satellites into space, up from eight at the end of 2018 and
more than double the number at the end of the last decade in 2009. Egypt
tops the list with nine satellites while South Africa, which previously
held the top rank until recently, comes close with record eight
satellites. Algeria and Nigeria hold the third place with six satellites
each. Morocco has launched three satellites into space while Angola,
Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Rwanda and Sudan have a record for each one.
Through private-public sector collaborations, African institutions have
launched three multilateral satellites: Rascom-QAF 1, Rascom-QAF 1R and
the New Dawn satellite (now wholly owned by Intelsat).

Data
from the African Space Industry Annual Report, 2019 Edition produced by
Space in Africa, a media and consulting firm focused on the African
space industry, forecast that more than 18 African nations would have
launched a satellite by the end of 2024. According to the report,
countries such as Mauritius, Tunisia, DR Congo, Côte d'Ivoire, Senegal,
Uganda and Zimbabwe have rolled out plans to launch a satellite into
space by 2024.

On a regional scale, the African Union is
vigorously pursuing a continent-wide space programme enshrined in the
objectives of African Space Policy and Strategy which was adopted by
African Heads of State and Government in January 2016. AU recognises
space science and technology as one of the most important actors needed
for the implementation of its short-term Science, Technology and
Innovation Strategy for Africa (STISA 2024) and the long-term
continental transformation framework known as Agenda 2063.

The
African Space Policy and Strategy programme focus on four thematic
areas: Earth observation, space science and astronomy, satellite
communication, and navigation and positioning. In a bid to streamline
the implementation of the programme, the African Union adopted a statute
for the establishment of an African Space Agency (AfAS) on 29 January
2018. In February 2019, Egypt won the bid to host the headquarters of
the Agency.

Africa's growing space activities span beyond
government programmes to include private commercial space ventures. The
continent is witnessing the emergence of more private companies that are
developing space technologies and offering space-enabled services
across regional and national markets.

A recent study by Space
in Africa profiled 34 of the leading African commercial space ventures
and NewSpace startups with an emphasis on their size, financial and
investment history, and products and services, as they exist and
interact with other actors in the global space ecosystem.

According
to the study published as the African NewSpace Industry Report, from
the seedlings of the nascent space sector, Africa's NewSpace companies
are championing the adoption of space technologies and services across
the continent while positioning themselves for strategic segments of the
market. The report identifies maturing interest in the downstream
satellite services segment with most of the commercial activities
focused on communication satellite services, Earth observation and
remote sensing services, positioning and surveillance, geospatial
analytics and ground station equipment. The continent is also witnessing
the rise of expertise in the upstream segment, mostly in small
satellite subsystems and payload manufacturing, with the majority of the
African NewSpace companies supplying vital components and instruments
to the global satellite market. Few African-grown NewSpace companies are
focused on the launch segment, and there is no significant traction on
in-space services or space travel.

In terms of the location of the
emerging commercial hubs, 21 of these companies based in South Africa,
four are in Nigeria, and another four are in Mauritius. Egypt is home to
two of these companies, while Kenya, Sudan, and Tunisia host one each.

The
study also highlights that the majority of the African commercial space
ventures raised equity investments from institutional investors,
venture capitalists and angels, while some bootstrapped with no external
funding. 21 of the 35 profiled companies raised equity investments
while eight companies are bootstrapping; government funds four are
primarily funded by the government, while one is wholly-owned by a
university.

Foreign space ventures and leading global satellite
operators are also in the race for Africa's emerging space market as
growing interest in space on the continent compound business
opportunities for both local and foreign companies across the various
segments of the market.

Foreign companies dominate the
upstream satellite manufacturing and launch segments with turnkey
contracts signed with African governments for in-orbit delivery of
satellites. These contractors built 25 of the 41 African satellites,
with all the 41 satellites launched from outside Africa by foreign
launch providers. The non-African entities closing the most deals on the
continent include Airbus Defence and Space (France), China Great Wall
Industry Corporation (CGWIC), RSC Energia (Russia), Surrey Satellite
Technology Ltd (UK), and Thales Alenia Space (France).

The
downstream market features diverse participation of local and foreign
entities, including large corporations and small ventures. African-grown
satellite operators and service providers such as Egypt's
publicly-traded operator NileSat, pan-African operator Rascamstar Ltd,
Nigeria's state-owned operator NigComSat Ltd and Algeria's AlComSat,
operated by Algeria’s transmission services provider Télédiffusion
d’Algérie and Algeria Telecom Satellite (ATS), are competing and in some
instances, collaborating with large global operators such as Eutelsat,
Intelsat, SES, Yasat, Avanti, among others. Many medium-large scale
services providers, resellers and equipment vendors operate in the value
chain, thereby, enabling a vast ecosystem of satellite market that
transcends the space sector to include the telecommunications, defence,
transportation, aviation, maritime, finance and development sectors.

The
African Space Industry Annual Report currently values the African space
economy at over USD 7 billion with a projected 7.3% CAGR, to exceed USD
10 billion by 2024; combining both estimated commercial revenue
generated and government budgets.

So, why is the African space
economy growing at such a high rate, especially with the presence of
more immediate concerns? The answer is multi-faceted. Some experts
attribute the growing adoption of space science and technology in Africa
to the continent's quest to leapfrog development. In the face of
widespread infrastructural deficit, some African experts believe that
space holds the potential to augment the inadequate terrestrial
infrastructure on the continent, particularly in the areas of
telecommunications, aviation, maritime, security, education, healthcare
and general advancement of science.

It is imperative to note
that space projects in Africa focus on providing solutions to
fundamental challenges rather than on space tourism or in-orbit economy.
Generally, satellite programmes dominate the continent's space sector
with space science research and astronomy rapidly maturing. Of the 41
satellites launched by African countries: 17 are Earth observation
satellites, 12 are primarily for technology demonstration and education
purposes, 11 communications satellites, whereas South Africa's Kondor-E
built by Russia is the only military radar satellite.

Businesses
are capturing opportunities by offering satellite-enabled services and
products across various application segments, including satellite
television, Earth observation, FSS & MSS, GNSS and similar services,
satellite subsystems, payloads and ground equipment manufacturing. Data
from the African Space Industry Report reveal that the biggest
contribution to the industry is from satellite TV, followed by
fixed-satellite service (FSS) and mobile-satellite service (MSS) and
GNSS, and other similar services. Some satellite operators are raking in
over USD 100 million in annual revenue.

Beyond satellite
programmes, the continent is betting big on space science research and
astronomy with South Africa leading efforts to host the world's biggest
radio telescope, the Square Kilometer Array, within its territory, in
partnership with eight African countries: Botswana, Ghana, Kenya,
Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia and Zambia. The first phase
of the project is expected to cost nearly USD 1 billion, which creates
more market opportunities for equipment manufacturers and vendors.

The
continent is leveraging international collaborations to leap forward in
terms of funding, human capacity development and technology
acquisition. African countries build on existing bilateral cooperation
with their technologically-advanced allies such as France, UK, Russia
and China to advance their space programme. Other notable foreign allies
with significant collaboration on the continent include the European
Space Agency with Japan, India and Ukraine catching up. A level of
pan-African space cooperation exists on the continent in the frame of
the African Resource Management Constellation and the African Space
Leadership Congress. However, space cooperation on the continent is
generally with foreign allies on bilateral terms.

编辑 | 张  梅

翻译 | 齐晓彤

设计 | 高  蕊