您做在的位置: 中国投资 > 宏观政策 > 欧洲难民危机将改变时局

欧洲难民危机将改变时局

文/ 海尔格·策普·拉鲁旭Helga Zepp-LaRouche

自二战以来爆发的最大规模的难民危机已给欧洲政治带来巨大挑战。如何应对数以十万计、百万计来自叙利亚、伊拉克、也门的战争难民以及饱受厄立特里亚、索马里和马里饥荒和骚乱的无辜民众,成为一个棘手的难题


海尔格·策普·拉鲁旭于1948年生于德国特里尔。曾在柏林自由大学的奥托·苏尔研究所和法兰克福大学学习。1977年,她与林顿·策普-拉鲁什结婚,与他一起在亚洲、非洲、欧洲和美洲参加了一系列政治活动。她会见了许多包括洛佩兹波蒂略和英迪拉甘地在内的领导人。她建立了生活俱乐部和国际席勒学会,同时担任民权运动的团结工会主席。在她的一生中,研究和出版过关于尼古拉·库萨,弗里德里希·席勒,弗里德里希·李斯特,以及1991年作为合著作者完成亚欧大陆桥项目,世界大陆桥——新丝绸之路。



太多触目惊心的视频和图片,溺毙在地中海沿岸的尸体,被海水冲上岸边的孩童,拥挤人潮中幼儿无助惶恐的眼神以及试图阻拦他们入境的警察。然而德国民众,以其前所未有的慷慨姿态接纳了所有长途跋涉才到达德国的难民们。

德国一小部分右翼分子却隔天对难民营发动恐怖袭击。而且许多欧盟国家,如波罗的海国家,波兰、匈牙利、捷克、斯洛伐克、丹麦和英国却拒绝接纳任何难民。截至8月底,希腊爱琴海岛屿已达到饱和状态,每天有成千难民聚集在这里。对于这些经济薄弱的岛国来说,他们的政府已无力负担难民饮食和医疗开支。另外,马其顿等国家无法控制难民洪流,只能任由他们涌入奥地利、德国和瑞典。难民们如惊弓之鸟一般,企图在匈牙利建成北大西洋公约的铁丝围栏之前进入巴尔干,匈牙利正企图建立包围其全部领土的围栏。

于此同时,8月底德国首相默克尔安吉拉却提出了截然相反的政策。在一次国家新闻发布会上,她宣布德国将接受所有来自叙利亚以及其他饱受战争侵害国家的难民。“我们能够应对”,她如是说。而且她强调德国是一个强大的国家,可以处理好类似局面,正如他们以往面对困难时一样从容。德国绝大多数的民众对此政策调整表示全力支持,当其他城市想尽千方百计拒绝难民时,他们却以个人形式捐赠了大量的食品、衣物和生活必需品。德国人民的情绪发生了极大的变化,这在一定程度上也反映出他们对于战争的担忧,不论是对乌克兰的局势,还是西南亚的伊斯兰国恐怖组织。

然而本次难民危机也表明,欧盟的整个结构,从马斯特里赫特条约的欧洲峰会到里斯本条约的订立,始终未能建立起稳固的根基。直至今日,其凝聚力早已消耗殆尽。所谓的“价值”理念,如民主、人权和国际条约的约束力在欧洲的大部分地区早已丧失作用。此次危机揭示了欧洲很多国家自我认知方面的严重裂痕,也表明各国无法在保全各自既得利益的前提下遵守正式的跨大西洋协议。即便在公共媒体上,近两周来政客、记者以及作家都将危机归咎于美国在中东燃起的战火,并且支持采取合理适当的措施反抗临时选举的政府。然而,在接受美国的训练之后,很多曾经的“适当”“温和”的反抗者都加入了恐怖组织,这最终将导致更多的战争。

针对欧盟的凝聚力,让·克洛德·容克于9月9日欧盟议会时在其题为“论国情咨文”的演讲中提出了尖锐的批评。“我们欧盟现在的情况不容乐观”,欧盟委员会主席如是说,“因为如今的联盟中既不能充分体现欧洲国家,也没有体现出联合的作用”。他肯定了一些国家所展现出的团结互助,但是也指出其他欧盟国家没能做到这一点。

尽管对于流离失所的难民们来说难民危机是一场悲剧,但是它仍然有潜在的好处:越来越多的欧洲人民开始意识到欧洲政策必须进行根本性变化,如果要彻底消灭难民外流的根源,除了进行谨慎的分析,还需要为西南亚和非洲提供一个全面的经济发展计划。

但最重要的是,德国政府态度的180度巨大转变,甘愿接纳来自叙利亚的所有难民,也为欧洲的转变提供了前所未有的机遇。德国绝大多数民众所展现出的慷慨与怜悯,将为欧洲与中国的一带一路政策进行对接合作提供新的典范。

与其将难民安置在难民营,任由他们无所作为,不如让他们加入语言和教育培训项目。这样他们将逐渐融入到国民经济发展中,为人口缩减问题严重的欧洲国家带来巨大的经济效益。

联合国难民署最近发布一份报告表明,在世界范围内,目前有大约6千万的民众因为战争、冲突、或残害而流离失所。这已达到有史以来最严峻的程度,而且还在迅速增加。其中一个主要的增长因素就是2011年叙利亚爆发的战争、现已成为造成民众背井离乡的最主要原因。2014年,平均每天有42,500人成为难民。这表明近4年内难民数量就增长了4倍。

除建立国际联盟以打击恐怖主义的紧迫性,普京总统呼吁要彻底消灭恐怖主义显然还需要做出其他努力。西南亚和非洲都饱受战争、叛乱、饥饿和流行病的摧残。因此,国际社会携手发展这些地区已经刻不容缓,而且应当以此作为人类共同的使命。从欧洲难民危机中反思出的极其重要的经验就是应当将一带一路政策拓展到中东和非洲。是的,“我们一定可以应对”。

 

The Refugee Crisis in Europe is becoming a gamechanger

by Helga Zepp-LaRouche

 

HelgaZepp-LaRouche

She was born in 25thofAugust 1948 in Germany. She studied at the Free University Berlin andFrankfurt/Main University in 1968. She pursued her political activities in manynations in Asia, Africa, Europe, the Americas, where she met with numerouspolitical leaders, including Lopez Portillo and Indira Gandhi. She is thefounder of the Club of Life and the International Schiller Institute,Chairwoman of the Civil Rights Movement Solidarity. She has extensive studiesand publications about Nikolaus von Kues, Friedrich Schiller, and is coauthorof the Eurasian Land-Bridge Programm in1991, coauthor of „The New Silk Roadbecomes the World Land Bridge“.

 

 

The largest refugeecrisis, which has errupted in Europe since the Second Worldwar, is presentingEuropean politics with challenges, how to deal with hundred thousands, evenmillions of people, fleeing from war in Syria, Irak, Yemen, or hunger andunrest in Eritrea, Somalia, or Mali. Heartbreaking Videos or Photos, of drowninghuman beeings in the Mediterrenian Sea, of dead children washed to the shore,ofhorrified loooking children caught in between refugees trying to surmountbarbed wire fences and police, trying to prevent them from doing so, have beenanswered by a majority of people in Germany with an unprecedented outpouring ofcharity and gestures of welcome to those, who made it to Germany.

But a small rightwingminority in Germany has also comitted terrorist attacks against accomodationfacilities for refugees almost every second day of the year so far. And manyEU- countries, like the Baltic nations, Polen, Hungary, the Chech Republik,Slovakia, Danmark and Great Brittain, are refusing to accept any refugees atall. End of August,the situation on the Greek Agaeis Islands, where dailythousands of refugees were stranding, reached a total crisis point, because theauthorities on these impoverished islands lacked completely the means toprovide food, drink and medical care. Also, the small country of Macedonia couldnthandle the stream of refugees, trying to reach Austria, Germany or Sweden. Therefugees were in complete panick, trying to make it through the Balkans, beforeHungary had completed the NATO barbed wire fence, it was building along itsentire border.

Atthat moment, end of August, the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, made an aboutface change of policy. In a national press conference she announced, thatGermany would basicly accept all refugees coming from Syria or other war torncountries. „We can cope with this“, she said, emphazising, that Germany is astrong country, which can manage this situation, as it did manage many before.The overwhelming majority of the german population reacted with outstandingsupport for this policy shift, contributing so many private donations of food,cloth and necessities, that im many cities they had to be turned away. There isa completely changed mood in Germany in the population, which is also in thisway reacting to their anxiety about the danger of war, be it out of thesituation in Ukraine, or the advances ot the terrorist organisation ISIS inSouthwest Asia.

But this refugeecrisis has also brought to the surface, that the entire structure of theEuropean Union, as it has developed from the EU summits from Maastricht toLisbon, is standing on extremely shaky foundations, and that its cohesion hasbeen lost. The much invoked “values”, such as democracy, human rights and thevalidity of international treaties, have already been lost in large parts ofEurope. This crisis revealed the enormous cracks in the self-perception ofEuropean nations, and the impossibility of adhering to the official “narrativeof the trans-Atlantic” Establishment, while at the same securing one's ownexistential interests. Even in public media politicans, journalists and authorshave appeared in the recent two weeks, blaming the wars of the US in themideast and the support of “good” or “moderate” rebells against electedgovernments for the refugee crisis. Than, after beeing trained by the US, manyof these “moderate” rebells have joined the evolving terrorrist organisations,to which the answer was more war, etc.etc.

On the cohesion ofthe EU, Jean-Claude Juncker pronounced a scathing judgment in his first speech“on the state of the Union” at the European Parliament on September 9. “OurEuropean Union is not in a good state,” said the chairman of the EuropeanCommission. “There is not enough Europe in this Union. And there is not enoughUnion in this Union.” He spoke of the solidarity shown by some, and the totallack there of in other EU member states.

As tragic as therefugee crisis is for the millions of people fleeing, it potentially has a goodside: more and more Europeans are realizing that the policy of Europe mustfundamentally change, that the causes for the outflow of refugees from theircountries must be eliminated, and that this requires, in addition to ascrupulous analysis of those causes, a comprehensive economic developmentprogram for Southwest Asia and Africa. Above all, the 180 degree change of theGerman government and its pledge to accept all refugees from Syria, offers anexceptional chance to bring about a change in Europe. The charity shown by agreat majority of the German population can become an orientation point for a newparadigm that would open Europe up to cooperation with the Silk Road EconomicBelt policy of  China.

Instead of herdingthe refugees into barracks, damning them to inactivity, they could be developedin language and educational training programs and integrated into the nationaleconomy, becoming an enormous economic benefit in the nations of Europe whichare currently suffering from demographic shrinkage.

The UNHCR recentlyissued a report, that worldwide about 60 million human beeings are alreadydisplaced from wars,conflict and persecution is at the highest level everrecorded and accelerating fast. The main acceleration has been since early 2011when war erupted in Syria, propelling it into becoming the world's singlelargest driver of displacement. In 2014, an average of 42,500 people becamerefugees, asylum seekers, or internally displaced every day, representing afour-fold increase in just four years.

Apart from theurgency to form the kind of international coalition against terrorism,President Putin is calling for, to defeat terrorism, there is obvoiuslysomething else, which needs to be done. Both large parts of Southwest Asia andAfrica are destroyed by wars, insurgencies, hunger and epedemics. It is hightime, that the international community joins hands to adopt the economicdevelopment of these regions in a serious way as the common mission of mankind.The extension of the OBOR-Silkroad policy to the Middle East and Africa for areal reconstruction programm is the only lesson out of the european refugeecrisis. Yes, “We can cope with it”.