10月18日，在德国，不论是公众舆论还是私人讨论都已经被如何应对不断升级的难民危机所主导。一些人企图制造恐慌，声称接纳150万难民的能力已经耗尽，需要改变基本法律来限制难民数量；他们认为默克尔首相应当马上辞职或至少不应完成剩下的两年任期；还宣称以穆斯林为主的难民将破坏欧洲文化同一性等等
幸运的是，绝大多数民众仍以见义勇为的心态在挽救绝望中的难民。很多公民都采取了实际行动，例如一些公司老板愿意接纳年轻的难民作为其学徒；舞蹈老师为难民组织社会活动以帮助他们摆脱被隔离的处境；一些老年夫妇邀请难民住进他们家中儿女离开后的空房。德国人民所展现的人道主义精神和行为让人觉得十分暖心。
难民危机在一瞬间改变了欧洲的一切，特别是德国。多年来，欧盟的政策完全忽视了这个问题，将希腊和意大利至于不顾，任由他们独自处理人口困境，企图逃避战争、饥饿以及西亚北非的疾病。在北欧的富裕国家，人们生活在其井然有序的社会。
然而每天，当成千上万绝望的难民涌入希望之地，人们才从梦中惊醒。仿佛在一瞬间，他们意识到即便像德国这样的国家，他们对世界漠不关心，但有时问题会自己找上门来。最值得强调的是，欧洲国家意识到他们拥有自己的国家利益，这与美国的利益是大相径庭的。
争论在一瞬间爆发，人们认为危机的根源应该归咎于美国在近东和中东挑起的战争。尽管欧洲国家仍然跟随美国和英国的脚步激化乌克兰危机并且对俄罗斯进行肆无忌惮的制裁，但局势已今非昔比。德国，法国以及一些其他欧洲国家开始支持普京对于叙利亚的武装干预。因为他们意识到，只有战争结束了，才能重新燃起希望，难民潮也得以终止。此外，俄罗斯所采取的武装行动事实上已取得稳定进展，这与美国模糊的军事政策“支持正义反叛”截然相反。事实上这些反叛组织随后均加入恐怖组织。显然，只有普京的政策，在中国的支持下会最终消灭欧洲恐怖主义的威胁。
目前，解决难民危机的最大障碍就是新自由主义和货币主义的意识形态，这不仅困扰了欧盟的官僚体系，也影响了相当数量的保守党成员，如德国财政部长萧伯乐以及美国社会党领导人萨潘。
对于所谓“黑零”的依赖，即实现预算零赤字是基于这样一种计算而得出的，也就是欧洲所有国家的人口增长曲线在之后几年都会下降，税收严重缩水，因此只有实行最严厉的节俭政策才能适应现实需要。
显而易见，即便未被揭露，但是最重要的原因还是在于欧洲出于隔绝状态严重依赖衍生品的银行体系，它需要来自实体经济持续的收入以及无止境的量化宽松政策。然而这种严厉的节俭政策实际上也存在危险，因为它具有误导作用，让你觉得需要削减其他领域，如社会支出、养老，或者教育，这样自然而然会引发焦虑并且激起排外反应。
我们只需要回顾德国历史就会发现采取不同手段是完全可行的。德国在二战结束时以及战后阶段有能力安置1400万难民，他们从东部向西部逃离。也正是这些人口的合并促成了德国著名的经济奇迹。之后在柏林墙倒塌前后，1989年西德也成功促使超过300万难民融入前东德，在90年代又吸收75万来自巴尔干的难民。
然而，之后的德国采取了截然不同的经济政策。在战后时期，政府所有的复兴银行(德国复兴开发银行)是建立在罗斯福时期复兴金融公司基础上的。他们为小中企业提供廉价、长期的信贷。极具生产力的德国中小型企业，从那时到现在始终致力于产出实际的财富而不是投机利益。该政策随着欧洲货币联盟的出现而瓦解，它和其他问题一起导致南欧一些严重危机，显然是失败的。
如果德国希望应对难民危机，就需要重拾复兴重建时期的信贷政策并且每年为超过50万新的住所提供贷款，需要超过25000名教师、1000所新学校，为超过7万名日托中心的儿童提供住所、1万张病床、6000名医生、2万个管理岗位、5万名新的社会工作者，15000名新的政策官员。
针对拥有技能的难民，可以马上参与重建。至于那些无技能的难民则可以参加岗位培训。这比任何其他措施都能更有效帮助他们医好战争和流离失所的创伤。也再没有更好的方式能够帮助德国经济和社会实现复兴。
在对叙利亚和伊拉克的军事行动取得成功之后，不仅需要重建被战争摧毁的城市，同时还需要实现整个区域真正的发展。显然，重建的途径之一就是一带一路丝绸道路政策的延伸，将整个综合发展项目从阿富汗发展到地中海，从高加索地区发展到波斯湾。
随着大量的海水淡化，沙漠变成绿洲，其他生产淡水新技术的应用，例如湿润环境的离子化以及综合基础设施项目的建设、工业农业的发展、新城市的建立将彻底改变该地区的特点。
只有当贫困被消除，年轻人，特别是青年男子被赋予未来的希望，恐怖主义才能被彻底消灭。显然，已知的恐怖主义资金来源应被切断，例如通过阿富汗毒品种植、特殊的瓦哈比教派及慈善机构组织。
显而易见的是，这种范例式的变化需要相邻国家的共同努力才能实现，如俄罗斯、中国、印度、伊朗、埃及、欧洲国家，甚至美国。但是目前的危机已足够证明地缘政治的延续只能带来灾难，必须立刻被人类共同的目标所取代。
如果德国与其他国家一道宣布执行以上的难民整合方案，使他们能够在德国或其他欧洲国家停留更长时间甚至永久居住，并且将新丝绸之路政策延伸到东南亚和非洲。此类活动的示范效应将对世界产生重大影响。绝望将转化成乐观与希望并带来更美好的未来。这将成为习近平主席在世界范围内倡导的共赢政策的另一个重要应用。
我们所要做的就是抓住机遇。
英文原文
In the Face of theRefugee Crisis: Realizing a Grand Vision
by HelgaZepp-LaRouche
Oct. 18 The public discourse and private discussionsin Germany are presently dominated by heated debates over how to proceed in face of the escalating refugee crisis. Thereare those, who stir fears, that the capacities of the communes to absorb therefugees of up to 1,5 millions this year have already been exhausted, that one should change the basic law to limitthe number of refugees, that chancellor Merkel should resign or will notoutlast the remaining two years of her present term, that the largely muslimrefugees will undermine the cultural identity of Europe, etc, etc.
Fortunately thereis still a majority of people who respond as good Samaritans tothe distress of the refugees, manyciticens react with very concrete steps, like bosses offirms offering to take young refugees as apprentices in their business, danceteachers organizing social activities for them, in order tohelp them toovercome their isolation, older couples take one or two refugees in theirhouses to occuppy rooms vacated by grown up children. It is heart- warming tosee that the german people are capable of such a human behaviour.
The refugee crisishas suddenly changed almost everything in Europe and in Germany in particular.For years EU- policy completely ignored this problem, leaving Greece and Italyessentially alone to deal with the plight of more and more people, trying toescape from war, hunger and desease in Sout West Asia and Africa. People in thewell to do countries of the north of Europe lived in the bubble of their neatand apperantly functioning societies.
But the dailystreams of ten thousands of desperate human beeings, trying to get to thepromised land, woke people up. All of a sudden they realized, that if countrieslike Germany dont concern themselves with the world, than the world comes tothem. Most emphatically it made European nations realize, that they have theirown national interest, and that may be quite different than that of the UnitedStates.
All of a sudden thediscussion errupted, that in was the American wars in the Near and Middle East,that are the cause for the crisis. And while European nations still followedWashingtons and Londons lead in the Ukraine crisis, by imposing – even soreluctantly-, sanctions against Russia,now the situation has changed. Germany, France and other nations all of asudden welcomed Putins military interventions in Syria, realizing, that only ifthese wars stop, will there be any hope, that the refugee stream will end.Also, since the Russian military operations there are moving steadily aheadsuccessfully, contrary to the american confusing policy of allways supporting„good rebells“, only to see them join the terrorist shortly there after, it becomes clear, that only Putinspolicy , supported by China, will diminuish the danger of terrorism in Europe.
The biggestobstacle to solving the refugee crisis right now is the ideology of neoliberalmonetarism, which traps not only the EU burocracy, but also a significantnumber of conservative politicans, such as German finance minister WolfgangSchäuble or Michel Sapin of the socialist government of France. The fixation onthe socalled „Black Zero“, a zero deficit in the budget, is based on thecalculation, that the demographic curve will dramaticly go down in the comingyears in all european countries, that the taxe revenue will shrinkdramatically, and therefore only the strictest austerity policy can adapt tothis fact. Naturally, the unspoken but more important reason lies in thedesolate condition of the derivative-ridden European banking system, whichrequires a constant income stream form the real economy and endlessquantitative easing. This austerity policy however is extremly dangerous,because with it goes the mistaken idea, that you have to cut in other areas,such as social expenditures, pensions or education, which naturally causes anxieties and stirs xenophobic reactions.
One only has to goback in Germanys history to see, that a completely different approach ispossible. Germany was able to accomodate 14 million refugees toward the end ofWorld War II and in the immediate postwar period, who fled from the East to theWest, and the incorpation of these people was a significant factor of whatbecame the famous German Economic Miracle. Again,before and after the fall ofthe wall in 1989 West Germany was able to integrate three million refugees fromthe former GDR, and again 750 000 from the Balkans in the 90ties.
However, Germanythan had a completely different economic policy.In the postwar period, thegovernment-owned reconstruction bank (Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau) was basedon the Roosevelt-era Reconstruction Finance Corporation, providing cheap,longterm credit for small and medium seized industries, the very productivegerman Mittelstand, which was and still is orientied towards the production ofreal physical wealth, rather than speculative profits. That policy ended withthe imposition of the European monetary union, which among other problems hasresulted in the terrible crisis in all of southern Europe, and has clearlyfailed.
If Germany wants todeal with the refugee crisis, it must return to the credit policy of thereconstruction period and provide credit for the construction of up to 500 000new homes per year, up to 25 000 additional teachers, 1000 new schools, roomfor 70 000 more children in daycare centers, 10 000 more hiospital beds, 6000more doctors, 20 000 more administrative positions, 50 000 more new socialworkers, 15 000 more new police officers.
Those refugees, whoalready have skills, can be immediately integrated in this reconstruction, andthose, who dont, can get the training on the job. Nothing will be better tohelp them to overcome the trauma of their war experience and flight, andnothing will be better for the german economy and society to rejuvenate.
Following thesuccess of the military operations in Syria and Irak, there must not only bethe reconstruction of the cities destroyed by the war, but there should be areal development perspective for the entire region. The obvious way to realizethat is the extension of the One Road, One Belt, Silk Road policy into theentire region from Afganistan to the Mediterranean, and from the Caucasus to thePersian Gulf with a comprehensive development program.
The greening of thedeserts with desalination of large amounts of sea water, and other modernmethods of fresh water production, such as ionization of the moisture in theatmosphere together with the building of integrated infrastructure projects,industry and agriculture, and new cities that will totally change thecharacteristics of the region. An outline for such a programm has just beenpublished in the new chinese language edition of the study „The New Silk Roadbecomes the World Landbridge“, published by the Chongyang Financial instituteand the Schiller Institute. ( Note to the editor: Please insert here the linkto the publishing house, where people can order the book.)
Only if poverty iseliminated, and, most importantly, young people, and especially young men, aregiven a real perspective for the future, can the problem of terrorism beovercome for good. Naturally, the known sources of funding of terrorism–, forexample, through drug cultivation in Afghanistan and certain Wahhabi“charity'' organizations, must be cut off.
It is clear thatsuch a change in paradigm is only feasible if all the major neighbors of theregion–Russia, China, India, Iran, Egypt, and the European nations–andhopefully also the U.S.–work together. But the present crisis makes abundantlyclear, that a continuation of geopolitics can only lead to catastrophies, andmust be urgently replaced by the common aims of mankind.
If Germany andother effected nations would announce both the above mentioned integration programm for those refugees, who want tostay longer or permantly in Germany and other European countries, as well asthe extension of the New Silk Road-policy for all of South East Asia, andAfrica, the signal effect for the whole world would be enormous. Despair wouldbe transformed into hope and optimism for a better future for all. It would beanother, and maybe the most important, application of President Xi Jinpingswin-win-policy for the whole world.
That opportunity need only be seized.