一系列的社会、金融以及经济因素叠加在一起，使得美国出现了一系列令人忧虑的情况。普林斯顿大学的经济学家安妮·凯斯和安格斯·迪顿（后者也是2015年诺贝尔经济学奖得主）的最近研究表明，在45-54岁的非西班牙裔的美国白人的死亡率正在急剧上升。他们的研究表明，这一群体从1999~2014年的死亡率上升了10%，而这一群体当中的贫困以及文化程度较少部分的死亡率则上升了22%。死亡的主要原因是毒品和酒精中毒以及慢性肝病和肝硬化。（图二）
凯斯和迪顿在研究中认为，如果这个群体的死亡率能够与1979~1998年之间保持一致，那么大约有50万人可以保住性命。然而这10年的死亡率却不降反升。这一研究同时指出，这一现象仅仅出现在美国。而同期的德国和法国在同一群体中的死亡率分别下降了25%和30%。（图一）
美国禁毒署在其刚刚发布的2015年毒品威胁评估中开篇就透露出了令人震惊的毒品泛滥情况。因吸毒过量导致死亡在2013年（该署所掌握的最新数据）居美国伤害死亡原因之首，有超过46000人因吸毒过量而死，这其中有超过一半人是服用处方类止痛药以及海洛因。根据美国药物滥用与心理健康服务局的调查显示，在2013~2014年，美国海洛因吸食者人数增长了51%。如在人称“海洛因之都”的巴尔地摩，每10个居民就有一人吸食海洛因。
哥伦比亚广播公司11月1日的一期节目描述了海洛因是如何在前美国工业重镇的俄亥俄州泛滥的，在节目中，该州首席检察长迈克尔·迪怀尔表示，“这种事情在我的一生中从未见到过”。
亨廷顿位于弗吉尼亚西部，旁边有俄亥俄河流过。这座有50000人口的前工业城市处于“铁锈地带”（指从前工业繁盛今已衰落的发达国家一些地区）上。该市的市长史蒂夫·威廉姆斯在回应研究普林斯顿学者报告中提到的中产阶级以及中年人的高死亡率时表示，“这一数据甚至不能反映真实情况的严重性”，并称这是一个“绝望疾病”。多达650名亨廷顿市民今年出现过吸毒过量的情况，占全部人口的1％，其中50人死亡。“对于这里的人们来说，天就跟塌下来一样。工业已经一无所有，”他表示。曾经他的小镇有过玻璃制造、汽车制造以及合金钢生产，现在全部无影无踪。
官方数据显示，美国的失业率已经降至5%，已经被认为是充分就业的情况。然而，有9400万的劳动人口并没有出现在这一统计数据当中。他们处于工作年龄，大多是从未工作过的年轻人，或者是放弃找工作的人（因此被统计），学生、残疾人、军人、犯人等等。
另外一个看待这个问题的角度是所谓的劳动参与率。这是指经济活动人口（包括就业者和失业者）占劳动年龄人口的比率。美国的这一数据一直在急剧下滑（右图）。图中的数据只是截至2013年，2014年的下滑更加严重。
生产性就业（与服务业，军队和公务员职位区分开来）已经下降到8%，技术性就业已经从2000年持续零增长，美国人的中值每周收入比起40年前已经实际下降了20%。
据路透社11月6日发布的调查显示，美国的铁路运输货物量在2015年第二季度比起去年同期下降了7%，表明很大一部分的工业经济正在下滑，而这一萧条局面持续到了第三季度。据美国铁路协会数据显示，煤炭运输比去年同期下降了大约15%，多达2700万。砂石的货运量则比去年同期下降了近14%。多达200万吨。公路货运量的下降情况更为严重。9月美国的货车装载比例比一年前下降了42%。
然而，可能更危险的情况还在后面。美国货币监理署署长托马斯·库里在10月31日和11月2日的两次公开演讲中警示美国金融系统存在的日益增长的信贷风险。在11月5日，美联储发布了2015年全国信用报告。他们调查了25%的金融系统，涉及总量多达40000亿美元的贷款。这一报告显示，美国银行和非银行类金融系统中杠杆式信贷组合急剧增长，增幅达到了23%，已经迫近10000亿美元。杠杆式融资是指在一家公司在各种会计标准衡量下已经负债累累的情况下给予的贷款。这样报告同时指出了在油气开发和生产以及能源领域中的信贷风险的增长（在这些领域中的杠杆式贷款已经多达2760亿美元）。
金融分析师吉姆·里卡兹在10月22日的一篇名为《五万亿美元的石油债务炸弹》的文章中指出，在过去5年中，在可替代能源的勘探和钻井领域（页岩油气）已经有5.4万亿美元的成本投入。这些投入中有相当一部分是通过银行贷款或者高利贷来融资的。里卡兹表示，保守估计这些贷款至少有多达10000亿美元，或者20%的价值，将会因为公司倒闭破产而被削减。即便是仅仅有7500亿美元的价值被削减，这也将会重创美国的金融系统，因为会有数以10万亿计的衍生贷款附加在原油和期货的债务上。
另外一个潜在的金融危机导火索是已经比2007年更严重的商业地产泡沫。一些分析师警告说这一泡沫有可能在今年年底之前破裂。而国际货币基金组织警告称所有的工具都已经在2008年的莱曼兄弟危机中用光了，而大西洋两岸的国家在此刻都没有准备应对一场新的危机。
然而，如果美国愿意接受中国国家主席习近平提出的双赢合作倡议，美国将只会从自身经济重建以及与中国和其他国家的合作过程中受益。例如，如果美国在国内建设一个高速铁路系统，就将会像中国一样从中大受裨益。（翻译：徐巍）
英文原文
Are the United States heading for a classical breakdown crisis?
by Helga Zepp-LaRouche
A wide range of social, financial and economic factors in the United States taken together protray a worrysome picture.A recent study issued by two Princeton University eonomists,Anne Case and 2015 Nobel Economics Laureate Angus Deaton show, that there has been a sharp increase in mortality rates among white, non-Hispanic Americans aged 45- 54. The study shows, that from 1999 to 2014 the mortality rate of that age group rose by 10%, the poorer, less educated stratum within this age even saw a 22% rise. The main causes of death were drug and alcohol poisonings, suicide, and chronic liver deseases and cirrhosis. Graph (2)
Case and Deaton write, that if the mortality rate would have remained as it was between 1979- 1998, half a million of death could have been avoided. A decade long progress concerning mortality has been reversed. The study emphazises, that this was unique to the US, that many coutries, such as Germany and France, saw declines of 25% and 30% in mortality rates for the same age cohort during this same period. Graph ( 1 )
In its just released 2015 Drug Threat Assesment, the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) reveals the terrifying extent of the drug epedemic in the United Statesm with the starting statistics, that drug overdoses now constitute the leading cause of 2013, the latest year for which data is avaiable, more than 46 000 people died from drug overdoze and more that half of those were caused by prescription painkillers and heroin. According to a survey by the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA), between 2013 -2014 the number of heroin users increased by 51%. In Baltimore for example, known as the „Heroin Capital of the United States“, one in ten citicens is using heroin.
In a CBS-TV broadcast Nov. 1 describing how heroin is ravaging the formerly industrial state of Ohio, State Attorney General Michael DeWine said, "In my lifetime, I've never seen anything like it."
The mayor of a formerly industrial town of 50,000 on the Ohio River, Huntington, in rust-belt West Virginia, reacted to the report of the unprecedented rising death rates among the middle-aged and “middle class.” “The data are behind the fact,” said Mayor Steve Williams, calling it “the disease of hopelessness.” More than 1% of his citizens, 650, have overdosed on drugs this year, 50 have died. “The bottom is falling out for people. Industry is down to nothing.” Once his town had glass making, auto systems manufacturing, steel alloy production; all is gone.
According to the official statistics, the unemployment rate in the US is down to 5%, which is regarded to be Full emplyment. But 94 millions do not appear in that statistics, who are working age, but either youth who never had a job, or people who stopped looking for jobs and are therefore no longer counted, or are students, handicapped, military, incarcerated etc. Another way to look at it is the inverse, the socalled „labor participation rate“. This is the percentage of the total working age population, who actually have jobs. That number has been dropping dramaticaly, as shown in the graph( 4 ), which goes only untill 2013, but in 2014 dropped even further.
Productive employment (as differentiated from service sector, military, administrative jobs etc.) has fallen to 8%, technological productivity is a zero growth since 2000, and Americans median weekly incomes are 20% lower in real terms than they were 40 years ago.
According to Reuters November 6. freight carried by major US railroads fell by 7% in the second quarter of 2015 compared with the same period of 2014, confirming, that large parts of the industrial economy are in recession, the slowdown continued into the third quarter. According to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) coal shipments went down by 27 million meric tons, around 15%. And shipments of sand and gravel (fracking) plunged by more than two million metric tons, nearly 14%. And concerning freight carried by trucks, the decline was even sharper, In september, the load to truck ratio was 42% below a year earlier.
But even more dangerous black clouds are moving up on the horizon. The controller of the currency, Thomas Curry, warned on October 31. and November 2. in public presentations, of „rising credit risks“ in the US financial system. On November 5. the Federal Reserve published the 2015 Shared National Credits Review. They surveyed more than 25% of the financial systems 4 trillion in loans. The review found, that the exploding leveraged loan portfolio of the banks and non- banks had grown another 23% and is very near one trillion. Leveraged loans are loans to companies already overindebted by various accounting standards, prior to the loan.The review also noted an increase in weakness among credits related to oil and gas exploration, production, and energy services (total 276 billion Dollar in leveraged loans.
The financial analyst Jim Rickards wrote in an October 22. Article entitled „The $5 Trillion Oil Debt Bomb“, which reported, that there are about $ 5,4 trillion of cost incurred in the last five years for exploration and drilling in the alternative energy sector (shale ois/ fracking). Agood portion of that represents borrowing through either bank loans or issuing high yield junk bonds. Rickards estimates that there were conservativly 20% of that total to be written down because companies fail, which would be about $ i trillon. Even if it would be only $750 billion, this would still devastate the financial system, since there are tens of trillions of dollare of derivatives piled upon the oil and commodity debt.
Another potential trigger for a new financal crash is the commercial real estate bubble, which is bigger that 2007, before it blew up. Several analysts have warned, that such a blowout could occur before the end of the year and the IMF has issued a warning, that all the instruments used after the 2008 Lehman Brothers crisis have been used up already and that the transatlantic world is presently unprepared to deal with a new crisis.
If however, the US would take up President Xi Jinpings offer to cooperation in a win-win perspective, the US could only profit by rebuilding its own economy, as well as cooperation with China and other nations abroad. For example, the US would greatly benefit, if they would build a domestic fast train system, like China is doing.