乐观看待合作新机遇

土耳其与中国的经济在一定程度上很相似，都颇具活力，而且一直保持高增长的趋势。中国在过去几十年里取得了重大成就，实现了可持续发展，人民生活水平不断改善。土耳其也一直在坚定地致力于跻身高收入国家行列，并以此作为奋斗目标。两国都越来越意识到本国在工业和技术创新领域所具有的发展潜力。

为此，土耳其和中国之间的经济伙伴关系不仅对两国的福祉至关重要，而且对全球贸易和经济的发展也会产生积极影响。

当前，全球经济的发展前景很不明朗，特别是贸易保护主义呈现上升态势，因此世界贸易组织对2019年全球商品贸易的增幅预计只有2.6%，也就不足为奇了。国际货币基金组织也将2019年全球增长的预测下调至3.5%。

限制性贸易措施以及其他问题，比如英国脱欧，无疑使全球经济面临巨大压力。不过，在经济实现全球化的今天，认为贸易战能够给某个国家带来稳定的经济收益是不现实的，而且会对人们产生误导。相反，扰乱全球供应链和将悲观情绪注入国际营商环境的言论和做法只会对所有国家造成不利影响。
土耳其始终致力于为营造更加开放合作的全球经济环境贡献力量。因此，我们渴望抓住每一个机会，扩大与中国、欧盟、美国和其他经济伙伴的贸易和投资。

土耳其经济
土耳其是世界上颇具活力的经济体之一。现在它是欧洲第七大经济体、世界第十八大经济体。土耳其最大的经济优势包括：相对庞大的人口数量，而且其中68%的人口处于工作年龄；地理位置靠近许多核心市场；与欧盟缔结了关税联盟；最重要的是，土耳其人不仅勤劳，而且具有企业家精神。基于这些因素和合理的宏观经济政策，土耳其的经济一直在保持高速增长，同时它也是颇具吸引力的外国直接投资（FDI）的目的国之一。

在过去15年里，土耳其经济每年都实现了5.8%的增长。去年，土耳其的出口增加了7%，达到了1680亿美元。

1996年土耳其与欧盟签立了关税同盟，此后20多年，土耳其与欧盟保持着密切的经济伙伴关系。现在双方该关税同盟进一步升级提上了议程，它将扩展到服务业、农业和政府采购等新领域。这无疑将为土耳其企业以及在土耳其的境外投资者们带来大量新的商机。欧盟成员国也将从中获益，这也是为什么欧盟委员会对尽快开始升级进程表现出积极态度的原因。

虽然近几年土耳其的经济已经取得了很大成功，但我们的最终目标是在这一成功的基础上，尽快使土耳其成为高收入国家之一。为了实现这一目标，土耳其正着力进行结构性改革。

2018年土耳其在世界银行的商业报告中排名提升了17位，位居第43名。在对外贸易指数方面，土耳其的名次也上升了29位，排在第42名。土耳其还被认为是发展较快的10个国家之一。

2018年，土耳其改为总统制，旨在确保政府服务更加高效。因此，现在公共部门在制订经济和其他领域的政策时更加注重结果导向。2018年四季度，政府公布了新经济计划（NEP），近期又宣布了结构改革第一阶段规划，即到2023年土耳其共和国成立100周年前需要实施的工作计划。新经济计划优先考虑的方面包括降低公共和家庭债务、严格的财政政策、发展充满活力和有进取精神的私营行业、开放市场以及在新政府体制下加快决策过程。与此同时，改革计划也涉及到进一步完善金融市场，并且在社会保障和税收制度方面做出重大调整。

土耳其经济具有多样性，以及政府对结构改革的高度重视，为国家的开放以及各领域的合作奠定了坚实的基础。

土耳其与中国的经济关系
过去10年间土耳其与中国的双边贸易额增长了近三倍。2018年，双方的贸易额是236亿美元，中国是土耳其的第三大贸易伙伴，仅排在德国和俄罗斯之后。不过土中之间的贸易额虽然很大，但却不平衡：2018年，土耳其从中国的进口额是207亿美元；而向中国的出口额只有29亿美元。

在投资领域，土耳其在金融、能源、物流和电子通信等领域吸引到了43亿美元的中国投资。但考虑到双方经济所具有的活力和潜力，中国和土耳其应当实现更大规模的双边投资。

我们为土耳其与中国的商务人员提供越来越多的交流机会，提高两国开展业务和进行投资的可能性。在旅游领域，去年有约4000名中国游客到访土耳其，我们期待未来能有更多的中国游客前往土耳其旅游。我相信土耳其航空公司作为我们的全球品牌一定会增加更多的航班来满足游客的需要。此外，放宽对旅行者和商务人士的签证要求并简化办理程序也会对双方商贸往来产生积极的影响。

2019年我们将特别关注在中国举办的两场大型的国际活动并为此做好准备。一个是在北京举办的2019年世界园艺博览会。我们相信中国作为东道国会尽一切可能办好这次盛会，土耳其也将非常高兴和隆重地布置展馆参加这一享有盛誉的活动。

另一活动就是中国国际进口博览会。土耳其公司对去年的进口博览会非常感兴趣，今年参展的公司数量有望继续增加。

2019年的另一件大事就是土耳其-中国联合经济委员会（JEC）会议的召开。联合经济委员会这一平台是促进双边经济关系的非常重要的机制，两国代表团可借此机会在许多技术领域交换意见并确定共同目标。考虑到两国上次召开这样的会议是十年前的事情了，因此我们对今年将在土耳其召开的联合经济委员会会议充满期待。土耳其-中国商务委员会还可能在会议期间举办一次土耳其-中国商业论坛，邀请两国的商界代表们参加。

一带一路让合作更加紧密
毫无疑问，土耳其和中国的经济合作不可能在一带一路倡议的框架外进行。一直以来土耳其都是主要贸易路线的必经国，因此它对一带一路的参与程度和贡献会对该倡议的最终结果产生极为关键的影响。

亚洲基础设施投资银行（AIIB）将对一带一路倡议下的项目实施发挥重要作用，而中国和土耳其都是该投资银行的创始国。

2018年，巴库-第比利斯-卡尔斯铁路项目已投入运营，该项目是里海运输（中间）走廊的重要组成部分，它是中亚和欧洲之间实现直接运输的重要基础设施。目前，土耳其正在建设隧道和桥梁项目，其中包括在伊斯坦布尔的博斯普鲁斯海峡上修建铁路，将亚洲和欧洲连接起来。这些项目对推动土耳其经济发展非常重要，同时，它与一带一路倡议的宏伟愿景相吻合。

一带一路倡议涉及到许多重大基础设施项目，土耳其和中国可以联手对其进行投资建设。土耳其具有竞争力的行业之一就是工程承包。在2018年美国《工程新闻纪录(ENR)》发布的全球250强承包商名单中，土耳其承包公司的数量排在中国之后，位居世界第二。迄今为止，土耳其承包公司已在123个不同国家完成了约1万个项目，项目总值达到近4000亿美元。它们中包括机场、铁路、体育场馆和其他大型建筑的建设和运营。所以，土耳其与中国完全有能力在一带一路倡议下，在全球任何地方合作开展项目建设。

未来合作重点领域
世界经济的未来在很大程度上是由数字化和自动化决定的。数字技术的创新及其在制造业和服务业领域的应用尤其重要。

在电子商务领域，土耳其国民和土耳其公司都对其充满希望并看好其前景。目前，土耳其国民和公司已经适应了网上购物和交易。近年来，土耳其出现了许多电子商务网站，而且它们的运营都非常成功。此外，土耳其也具备建设发展电子商务所需的物流中心的巨大潜力。全球电子商务巨头们近来对土耳其的投资充分证明他们对土耳其在物流方面的发展潜力十分看好。

显然，现在的数字化转型并不仅仅局限于电子商务。数字技术和自动化的创新对经济领域参与者的经营模式以及产品制造和提供产品服务的方式都产生了很大影响。

在数字时代，中国和土耳其都拥有所需的资产和资源，可以享受其带来的红利。这些资产和资源包括年轻熟练的劳动力资源和勤劳务实的传统。因此，土耳其和中国企业在经贸和投资方面具有广阔的合作空间。

虽然现在全球商业环境都感受到了日益抬头的保护主义的压力，但不能让其妨碍我们乐观看待这个时代呈现出的贸易和投资新机遇。今天，各国经济和商业领域在全球范围内的相互依存度很高，保护主义根本不可能强行对其加以遏制。换句话讲，基于当今全球经济的现状，保护主义企图采取的那些措施不仅缺乏合理性，而且也不可持续。因此对未来的合作机会我们依然满怀期待。

各国应当通过世界贸易组织和其他相关的多边平台展开合作，努力改善国际营商环境，使发达国家、发展中国家和欠发达国家都能从中获益。

土耳其非常看重与中国的双边经济关系，因为两国都拥有多样化且成熟的经济结构、运行良好且可控的金融市场以及高增长的发展态势。这些共同的发展动力为工业、农业和服务业等领域提供了重要的合作机遇，因此土耳其和中国公司应当意识到这些可能性并努力使之变为现实。

⬆2019年的北京世园会，以‘用绿色拥抱未来’为主题的土耳其馆希望向世界展示‘更绿色、宜居、可持续’的理念。

英文版

Taking an Optimistic View of New Opportunities for Cooperation

By Ruhsar Pekcan

Turkish and Chinese economies resemble each other in the sense that both are characterized by an important level of dynamism and high growth trend. While China has achieved important success in the recent past in terms of sustainable development and increasing welfare for its citizens, Turkey has been determinedly pursuing the goal of taking its place among the highest income countries. Both countries are realizing their industrial and technological potentials more and more every day.
In this vein, economic partnership between Turkey and China is critical not only for the wellbeing of both countries but also for the positive effects it may have to global trade and business.   
Global economic conditions seems blurry these days especially due to the rise in protectionist tendencies in global trade. It isn’t surprising that the World Trade Organization expects merely a 2.6% increase in merchandise trade in 2019, while the IMF reduced its global growth projection for 2019 to 3.5%.   
Restrictive trade measures, coupled with a number of other issues such as the Brexit are certainly putting global economic actors under pressure. However, in today’s globalized economy it is very unrealistic and also somewhat miss-guided to think that a “trade war” can bring reliable economic gains to any particular country. On the contrary, by disrupting the global supply chain and infusing pessimism into international business environment, such discourse and measures adversely affect all nations, one way or another.
Turkey, as always, is willing to contribute to a more cooperative global economic environment. In this sense, we are eager to seize every opportunity to foster trade and investments with China, the EU, the US and all other economic partners.

Turkish Economy
Turkey continues to be one of the most dynamic economies. Currently, it is the 7th largest economy in Europe and 18th in the World. Some of Turkey’s greatest economic assets are its relatively large population, 68% of whom are at working age; its geographical proximity to many critical markets; its Customs Union with the EU and most importantly, the industrious and entrepreneurial spirit of its people. Thanks to these factors and a sound macro-economic policy, Turkey has been enjoying a high growth trend. It has also been one of the most attractive foreign direct investment (FDI) destinations.
The average growth rate has been 5.8% in the last 15 years. Last year, Turkish exports rose by 7% and amounted to 168 billion Dollars. Currently.
Turkey had established its Customs Union with the EU in 1996. After more than 20 years of close economic partnership with the EU, it is now in our agenda to update the Customs Union and extend it to new areas such as services, agriculture and government procurement. This will certainly open up a large area of new business opportunities for Turkish companies as well as foreign investors in Turkey. The EU member countries will benefit from this as well; and that is why the EU Commission has a very positive approach for the Updating process to start as soon as possible.     
While Turkey has attained significant economic success in the recent past, our ultimate goal is to build up on this success and place Turkey among the highest income countries in the soonest time possible. Towards this goal, Turkey emphasizes structural reforms.
Turkey has risen up 17 steps in the World Bank Doing Business Report last year and was placed 43rd. As for the Foreign Trade Index, Turkey moved up 29 steps and became 42nd. Turkey was pointed out as one of the 10 countries that showed most notable improvements.
In 2018, Turkey shifted to Presidential system with a vision to ensure more efficiency in government services. Hence, the public sector is now focusing more on result oriented strategies in economy and other fields. Our government announced the New Economy Program (NEP) in the last quarter of 2018. It has also very recently declared the first part of the structural reform package that is planned to be revealed incrementally and implemented over the next few years towards the centennial of the Turkish Republic in 2023.       
The New Economy Program (NEP) prioritized a low public and household debt, a disciplined fiscal policy, a dynamic and enterprising private sector, open markets and an accelerated decision-making process with the new government system. Likewise, the structural reform package touches upon reinforcing the already sound financial markets as well as important renovations in the social security and tax system.
Thanks to its diversified economy and a persistent emphasis on structural improvements, Turkey and Turkish companies offer lucrative partnership opportunities in almost all sectors.  

Turkey – China Economic Relations
Turkey’s bilateral trade volume with China has almost tripled in the last ten-year period. As of 2018, with a volume of $23,6 billion, China is Turkey’s third biggest trade partner after Germany and Russia. Even though the volume of trade between Turkey and China is significantly high, it has an unbalanced nature: In 2018, Turkey imported $20,7 billion worth of products from China while exporting only $2,9 billion.
In terms of investments, Turkey has attracted $4.3 billion of Chinese investments in particular in finance, energy, logistics and telecom sectors. Considering the dynamics of both economies, China and Turkey should achieve a much higher bilateral investment volume.
The more mobility we provide for our people and business persons for mutual visits between China and Turkey the more chance we get for achieving a higher bilateral business and investment volume. In tourism, around 400 thousand Chinese citizens visited Turkey last year. This is an important figure and we hope that the number of Chinese visitors to Turkey will continue to increase in the coming years. I believe, our global brand, Turkish Airlines, will continue to help this figure increase with more flights. In addition, easing visa requirements and procedures for tourists and business people can have a noticeably positive effect on our business relations.
 
EXPOs Ahead
We have special preparations for two major events to be held in China in 2019. One is the EXPO 2019 that is going to be realized in Beijing. We believe China will host this major event in the best way possible and Turkey will be happy to participate this prestigious event with a major pavilion.
The other event is the China International Import Expo. Turkish companies showed a significant interest in last year’s trade fair. This year, the number of Turkish participants are expected to increase much more.
Another important event that is foreseen for 2019 is Turkey-China Joint Economic Commission (JEC) Meeting. JEC platform is indeed a very crucial.