Permit me to survey the past briefly, examine the present and speculate on the future.
It has been said that in the 19th century, the world was Europeanised. In
the 20th century, it was Americanised. Now, it is being Asianised. Asia
along with the rest of the world was seriously hobbled by the impact of
Covid 19, but now much of the continent, especially China, is recovering
and may even pull the rest of the world out of the pandemic-imposed
mire. Asia has a golden opportunity, through the careful management of
policy, both internal and external, to make this century a golden
success story, despite the pandemic and turn the pandemic from being a
hindrance to an opportunity. The BRI may just be the catalyst for Asia
leveraging itself and the world out of the current economic challenges.
⬆
The China-funded China-Sri Lanka Friendship Hospital is inaugurated on
June 11, 2021 (Xinhua/photo provided by the Presidential Secretariat of
Sri Lanka)
Background
Asia, after having been accorded the dubious distinction of being the poorest
continent in the 1960s, has within a very short space of time,
transformed itself into the economic powerhouse of the world and was
achieving prosperity at a dizzying pace. This rapid rise caught
everyone, especially the West, off balance and many analysts found the
transition difficult to accommodate in their existing frames of
reference, not to mention the political class and the media. The much
flaunted as superior and oft prescribed liberal democratic political
structures and open economies and free trade were not faithfully
replicated by the majority of countries of resurgent Asia as they strove
to catch up to, or even surpass, the West. At best, only lip service
was being paid by many to liberal democracy as understood in the West.
Liberalised trade and open markets, an article of faith for so long in the West,
had not been adopted in full, with state assisted champions and in the
case of China, under the guidance of the Communist Party, powering most
Asian economies and, in some places even in the West, these concepts
were beginning to be diluted, particularly in the face of Asian
competition. The dominant economy of the West, the USA, is now being
forced to backpedal on the trade liberalisation and globalisation
Crusade of yesteryear and is busily putting up barriers and tightening
the brakes. The noisy call to open doors to foreign investments is being
replaced by strict monitoring of inward investments, ostensibly for
security, environmental and sociological reasons. Some commentators have
even entertained genuine fears that one of the pillars of the Bretton
Woods institutional architecture, the World Trade Organisation, would
collapse due to US actions. But a modicum of hope has been restored as a
result of the change of administration in the US, again through a
process which cannot be held up as a model for anyone.
Economic and trade concepts advocated with messianic fervour are rapidly being
modified just as resurgent Asia was beginning to reap their benefits.
The impact of the pandemic might just be the excuse for adopting further
protectionist measures.
Did the West promote a myth all these years, albeit in good faith, or were
these concepts advocated for their immediate convenience, including
through post World War II international institutions set up to advance
their own vision for a better world? Is it now backtracking when
confronted by a super competitive Asia which has become adept at using
the rules propagated by the West itself for its benefit? Perhaps, from
their perspective, self interest and common good coincided.
The Fall from Grace and Recovery
History has witnessed a prosperous Asia fall from grace. In the early 1820s,
Asia accounted for two-thirds of the world’s population and more than
50% of the wealth produced globally. Even in 1750, China’s share of the
World GDP was 33% and India 24.5%. The subsequent impoverishment of Asia
could be attributed to a number of overlapping and interconnected
factors, including its forcible integration to a world economy on
imperatives determined by militarily dominant colonial and imperial
priorities, development exhaustion, stifling and inward looking
conservatism, perhaps influenced by regressive religious constraints,
dissipation of the dynamism and innovation of the past, paucity of
advances in military technology, strategy and science and internecine
conflicts which were unscrupulously exploited by Western colonial
invaders. The causes for the downfall hold lessons for Asia in the
contemporary environment. The same weaknesses, where they manifest
themselves, including overwhelming suspicions of other countries in the
region, continue to be exploited by interested outsiders who still
remain in control of global financial structures and the media.
By
the late 1960s, Asia had slid to being the poorest continent in the
world, but with more than half of the world’s population. Its social
indicators were among the worst. The task of feeding this massive
population was a practical and immediate challenge, highlighted in the
Club of Rome’s ‘Limits to Growth’. But to the surprise of many, Asia,
especially China and not forgetting ASEAN, modifying feudal and semi
feudal socio-economic structures and enhancing and employing modern
science and technology, pulled through and surprised the many
pessimistic commentators. The food problem was solved despite the
numerous publicly expressed reservations. Today no one expresses any
reservations about having to feed Asia's poverty-stricken millions. Most
of Asia, especially the South and the East are feeding themselves and
even exporting food. A green revolution swept through this vast
region. China’s Yuan Longping created the hybrid rice that have made
China a champion rice producer.
Millionswere extricated from absolute poverty within a single generation.
China, led by the CPC, eliminated absolute poverty a full nine years
ahead of the UN SDG goal in the middle of the Covid-19 pandemic. This is
a phenomenon that has not occurred anywhere else in human history.
Carefully and scientifically developed inclusive policies, investments
in infrastructure, health and education and the mobilisation of the
people helped to achieve this goal.
It is pertinent to remember that Asia now accounts for 30% of world
income, 40% of world manufacturing, and over one-third of world trade,
while its income per capita has converged towards the global average.
Already Asia’s GDP exceeds that of the USA and EU. By 2040 it will
account for over 50% of World GDP, with India or China having the
biggest individual GDP. China has become the second biggest economy in
the world and is expected to overhaul the US by 2028. On a PPP basis,
China is ahead of the USA. China lodged 44% of patent applications in
2016. Technology has been used extensively and has been spurring Asia
ahead, especially South East and East Asia. By 2040, Asia is likely to
account for nearly 40% of global consumption. Asia now accounts for
around one-third of global trade in goods, up from about a quarter 10
years ago. Prior to the pandemic, its share of global airline travellers
had risen from 33% to 40%, and its share of capital flows had increased
from 13% to 23%. Today China is either the major recipient of foreign
direct investment in the world or the second biggest, having attracted
USD 141 billion in 2019. It is also one of the biggest sources of FDI.
In 2020 Chinese outward investments reached USD 132 billion and this
trend will continue in the post Covid-19 era. Sri Lanka developed
Hambantota and the Colombo Port City. Greece developed the Piraeus
port. Greece had over 1,000 ships constructed in China. China is the
second biggest contributor to the UN and over two thousand Chinese
personnel serve on UN Peace Keeping missions. In 2019, China alone
generated over 169 million international trips per year spending over
130 billion Dollars and the number is expected to grow. When I started
travelling on government delegations in business class in the middle
eighties, it was rare to see a non-white face in this class. Today, it
is the other way around.
The Growth of the Economies
China's GDP growth has averaged almost 10 percent a year, and more than 800
million people have been lifted out of poverty. There have also been
significant improvements in access to health, education, and other
services over the same period. China is now an upper-middle-income
country. In 2020, it was the only major economy to expand while in 2021,
it It grew 18.3% during the second quarter. While the pandemic caused
some segments of the economy to falter, the recovery was swift.
Controlling the pandemic swiftly was the key. The laissez faire, “she's
all right mate” approach of some countries of the West was avoided and
strict control measures were instituted very early. Vaccination rollout
was efficient and by the end of June almost a billion doses of locally
produced vaccine had been administered in China. The contrast is
obvious. While those other countries are still floundering dreaming of a
better day, China is back in business. China has also delivered more
than 480 million doses to over 100 countries around the world. 2.7
million doses have been donated to Sri Lanka.
McKinsey Global Institute research demonstrates the impressive extent to which
the global centre of gravity is shifting towards Asia with the region
increasing its share of global trade, capital, people, knowledge,
transport, culture and resources. In the post Covid-19 world, all
indications are that this tendency will only increase. Of eight types of
global cross-border flows, only waste is flowing in the opposite
direction, reflecting the decision by China and other Asian countries to
reduce or eliminate imports of waste from developed countries. China
stopped the import of waste in 2017. Some, including the Philippines,
Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore and Malaysia have begun to return waste to
European source countries, something unthinkable two generations ago.
CPEC has helped to develop energy and infrastructure in Pakistan. USD 25
billion has been invested in Pakistan so far, and 75,000 jobs have been
created at Gwadar Port.
According to the World Bank, with regard to ease of doing business around the
world, India has risen to 63rd place. China is already at 31. The
aberration of Covid 19 will only be a blip in history. New Zealand and
Singapore hold the top two positions. Increasingly Australia and New
Zealand will be drawn in to the Asian melee. The most-improved group
also includes India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, the three populous nations
of the sub-continent. Sri Lanka, with many natural and sociological
advantages, needs to examine what is holding it back and understand what
makes the other Asian countries flourish. Inefficient Tax and
administrative structures, corruption, lack of transparency, lack of
dynamic and visionary managers, uncertain policies and lost
opportunities, etc come to mind.
21 of the world’s 30 largest and four of the 10 most visited cities are in
Asia. A dizzying range of business opportunities have opened up in
Asia's mega cities. The biggest stores selling European luxury brands
are now in Asia. Reflecting this trend, Yangon, Myanmar’s commercial
capital, attracted greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) in
knowledge-intensive sectors totalling $2.6 billion in 2017, up from
virtually zero in 2007. Myanmar's progress is likely to be affected by
the internal turmoil but it seems to be adequately shielded by its
neighbours.
China and South Korea in East Asia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,
Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam in South-East Asia, Bangladesh, India,
Pakistan, and Sri Lanka in South Asia, and Turkey in West Asia, account
for more than four-fifths of the population and income of the continent.
Japan, a high income country, was already industrialised 50 years ago.
GDP Growth
TodayChina’s GDP, although its growth has slowed, tops USD 14 trillion.
India’s is 2.6 trillion. China’s economy has been expanding at 6% per
annum and contributed around 30% of global growth in the past eight
years. India’s economy expanded at 5%. Although Covid-19 has slowed it
down, India, with a younger population, is expected to overtake the
Chinese economy around 2050. The regional grouping of ASEAN, with 600
million people and a combined GDP of $2.8 trillion, is surging ahead
economically, including technologically, making it an attractive partner
and a model to outsiders. The Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership (RCEP), has been concluded after the US withdrew from the
Trans-Pacific Partnership and offers further opportunities for regional
economic collaboration. It appears that the US might reconsider its
decision. China long pushed to conclude the RCEP, which also includes
Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and 10 Southeast Asian
nations. The technological advancements of the region are breathtaking.
While China is criss-crossed by 38,000 Km of high-speed rail tracks,
Japan's Hideo Shima pioneered the concept. Today similar tracks are
beginning to link South East Asia (not to mention Central Asia and
Europe) to China. The original dream of those who drafted the Asian
Railway Network Agreement appears to be reaching fruition.
Asia’s economic transformation in this short time-span is almost unprecedented
in history. Rising per capita incomes have transformed social
indicators of development. Literacy rates and life expectancy have risen
dramatically. Technological proficiency is now a given in most of East
and South East Asia.
Belt and Road Initiative
President Xi Jinping’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative, launched in 2013,
covering more than 140 countries and 32 international organisations
today, including 65% of the world's population and 40% of the global
gross domestic product as of 2017, pledged $60 billion in financing for
projects across the African continent. China’s trade with BRI countries
exceeded USD 6 trillion and with Africa has soared over the past 20
years from about $10 billion to approximately $200 billion. In a
reflection of shifting balances of power, nearly twice as many African
leaders attended the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in Beijing in
September 2019 than the UN General Assembly in New York two weeks later.
The BRI has undergone refinement ever since it was proposed and President
Xi Jinping has clearly stated the guidelines. Green mountains, clean
water and blue skies has become the catch cry. Today it emphasises green
development, green energy and green finance. China for its part will
cap carbon emissions in 2030 and will be carbon neutral by 2060. This
will make a major contribution to the global effort to help planet earth
recover from the abuse it suffered since the beginning of the
industrial revolution. China has stopped fossil fuel-based energy
development and will stop financing such development also. China's
leadership will definitely have an impact on policy making in other BRI
countries also. New industries associated with renewable energy will
spring up creating new jobs. New materials will be developed. Graphine
will be one of these.
Artificial intelligence will play a big role in the post pandemic recovery.
Students and researchers, including medical workers have been restricted
to doing their work on computers during the pandemic. This will
continue, even enhanced. Reliance on AI will become more widespread.
China will be best placed to take advantage of these developments, given
its current dash to embrace AI.
Withtrade and investment replacing aid, and due to the inroads already made
by China and Russia, US and European multilateral lenders are also
directing more funds towards Africa.
Asia's Diversity
It is important to recognize that Asia is bewilderingly diverse. There are
significant differences between countries in geographical size,
embedded histories, religions and cultures, colonial legacies,
nationalist sentiment, natural resources, population size, income levels
and political systems. The reliance on market forces and the degree of
openness of economies has varied greatly across countries and over time.
Similarly, its politics and ideologies have also tended to differ widely. From
communism, socialism with capitalist characteristics, to state
capitalism, democracies of sorts and simple robber baron capitalism.
Development outcomes differed and different paths to development were
adopted, because they decided early that there was no universal one size
fits all solutions.
Rising investment and high savings rates combined with the spread of
education, especially technical education, were significant underlying
factors contributing to Asia’s performance. These will feature
prominently as Asia forges a recovery path in the post Covid-19 era.
Rapid industrialization-fuelled growth, often led by exports.
Coordinated and well considered economic policies, including
international policies, contributed. The developmental states in South
Korea, and Singapore coordinated policies across sectors over time in
pursuit of national development objectives, using carrot-and-stick
policies to implement their agenda, and were able to become
industrialised nations in just 50 years. China emulated these
developmental states with tremendous success, and Vietnam followed the
same path two decades later. Both countries have strong communist
one-party ruling structures that could effectively coordinate and
implement policies.
The role of government
Successful Asian economies gradually embraced openness. Integration with the world
economy was almost always strategic and cautious, rather than passive
insertion. Trade policy was liberal for exports but in many instances,
restrictive for imports. On many occasions, it was designed to encourage
local manufacture and transfer technology. Government policies towards
foreign investment have been shaped by national development priorities,
rather than willy nilly. While openness was necessary for successful
industrialisation, it was not sufficient and facilitated
industrialisation only when combined with industrial policy.
Governments performed a vital role in the transformation of Asia. It was a catalyst
and a supporter. Policies were carefully formulated. Success at
development in Asia was about managing this evolving relationship
between states and markets, by finding the right balance in their
respective roles.
Finally, in the past countries and regions attained prosperity by exploiting the
demeaning institution of slavery, by colonial exploitation and
financial and economic control. East Asia, China in particular, used
trade to achieve moderate prosperity. The BRI, gives us the next
possibility to achieve prosperity.
Editor | Li Juan
Design | Demi
文｜帕利塔·科霍纳（Palitha Kohona） 斯里兰卡驻华大使
导读
亚洲恰逢一个宝贵的机遇，通过对内外政策的精心运作，可以将本世纪谱写为一个千载难逢的成功故事
●背景
●跌落神坛与复苏
●经济增长
●国内生产总值的增长
●“一带一路”倡议
●亚洲的多样性
●政府的作用
请允许我简要回顾过去，审视当下，畅想未来。
有人说，全球在十九世纪被欧洲化，在二十世纪被美国化，现在世界正在被亚洲化。亚洲和世界其他地区都受到了新冠疫情的严重影响，但大部分亚洲国家尤其是中国都在恢复，甚至还有可能将世界其他地区拉出疫情的泥潭。亚洲恰逢一个宝贵的机遇，通过对内外政策的精心运作，可以将本世纪谱写为一个千载难逢的成功故事。尽管疫情肆虐，但疫情带来的挑战亦可转化为机遇。“一带一路”则可以助力亚洲和世界克服当下的经济挑战。
⬆ 斯里兰卡科伦坡港
背景
亚洲在20世纪60年代被冠以最贫穷大陆之名，但在很短时间内，就转变为世界经济的动力来源，极其快速地实现繁荣。这种快速崛起让所有人尤其是西方失衡，许多分析人士都觉得这种转型很难套用他们既有的参照系，更不要说对政治阶层和媒体而言了。大多数复兴的亚洲国家在赶超西方的过程中，并没有亦步亦趋地复制那些经常被标榜为更优越、被奉为圭臬的自由民主政治结构、开放经济和自由贸易。许多国家对西方所理解的自由民主充其量只是在口头上应和。
自由贸易和开放市场这些西方长期以来的信条并没有被完全接受。大部分亚洲经济体的发展是由国家支持的重点企业推动的，中国则是在共产党的领导下实现的。这些概念甚至在西方的一些地方也已开始被淡化，特别是在面对亚洲的竞争时。西方主导经济体美国不久以前还在进行着贸易自由化和全球化征程，而现在却被迫倒退，匆忙设置壁垒，紧踩刹车。对外国投资敞开大门的呼吁现在正被对外来投资严格监控所取代，当然表面上是打着安全、环境和社会原因的旗号。一些评论者甚至真的很担心布雷顿森林体系的支柱之一世界贸易组织会因美国的行为而垮台。但美国新旧政府更迭——尽管再次以一种不值得任何国家效仿的方式进行，却带来了一丝希望。
随着复兴的亚洲开始从现有经济体系中受益，那些曾经被救世主般的热情所倡导的经济和贸易观念却在迅速发生改变。疫情影响可能只是采取更多贸易保护主义措施的借口。
西方这些年来是善意地宣传一种迷思，还是为了行己之便才倡导的这些观念，包括通过二战后建立的国际机构来推行他们自己对美好世界的愿景？亚洲已变得善于运用西方宣传的规则而从中获益。面对这样一个超级有竞争力的亚洲，西方正在改变主意吗？也许在他们看来，自利和公利是一致的。
跌落神坛与复苏
历史曾见证一个繁荣的亚洲跌落神坛。19世纪20 年代初期，亚洲占世界人口的三分之二，贡献全球财富的50%以上。在1750年，中国占世界GDP的33%，印度为24.5%。亚洲之后陷入贫困的原因可归于许多相互重叠、相互关联的因素，包括军事强大的殖民主义和帝国主义强行将亚洲并入世界经济；发展力竭；令人窒息内卷的保守主义；也许是由于倒行逆施的宗教束缚，过去的活力和创新消失不见；军事技术、战略和科学缺乏进步；内部冲突也被西方殖民侵略者肆无忌惮地利用。昔日衰落的原因为当今的亚洲提供了教训。同样的一些弱点又有所显现，包括对本地区其他国家的强烈猜忌。这些弱点继续被那些仍然控制着全球金融和媒体的域外有关国家利用。
到20世纪60年代后期，亚洲沦为世界最贫穷大陆，但拥有世界一半以上的人口。养活如此庞大的人口成为一项现实而紧迫的挑战，罗马俱乐部《增长的极限》报告中强调了这一点。但令很多人出乎意料的是，亚洲尤其是中国，还有东盟，改变了封建、半封建的社会经济结构，加强和应用现代科学技术，终于渡过难关，令许多悲观的评论家惊叹不已。尽管还有很多人公开表达怀疑态度，粮食问题解决了。现在没有人对养活亚洲数百万贫困人口持怀疑态度了。亚洲大部分地区，尤其是南部和东部都做到了粮食自给自足，甚至还能出口。一场绿色革命席卷了这片广大区域。袁隆平研发的杂交水稻让中国成为世界第一水稻生产大国。
在一代人的时间里，数百万人摆脱了绝对贫困。中国在共产党的领导下，尽管处在新冠疫情之中，仍比联合国可持续发展目标提前整整九年消除了绝对贫困。这是人类历史上任何其他地方从未有过的壮举。认真科学地制定包容性政策，投资基建、卫生和教育，发动人民，让这一伟大目标成为现实。
目前亚洲占全球总收入的30%，占世界制造业的40%，世界贸易的三分之一强。同时亚洲的人均收入已趋于全球平均水平。亚洲国家的GDP总量已超过美国和欧盟之和。到2040年，亚洲将占世界GDP的50%以上，届时中国或印度将拥有最高的国内生产总值。中国已成为世界第二大经济体，并有望到2028年赶超美国。按购买力平价计算，中国已领先美国。2016年，中国提交的专利申请占世界44%。技术得以广泛应用，并一直在推动亚洲，尤其是东南亚和东亚发展。到2040年，亚洲很可能占全球总消费的近40%。亚洲现在约占全球商品贸易额的三分之一，而十年前约为四分之一。疫情之前，亚洲占全球航空旅客的比重就已从33%上升到40%，在全球资本流动中的份额从13%升至23%。今天，中国是全球外国直接投资的第一或第二大流入国，2019年吸引了1,410亿美元。中国还是外国直接投资的最大来源国之一。2020年，中国对外投资额达1,320亿美元，这一趋势在后新冠疫情时代将持续。斯里兰卡开发了汉班托塔港和科伦坡港口城。希腊开发了比雷埃夫斯港。希腊有1,000多艘船是在中国建造的。中国是联合国第二大出资国，逾两千名中方人员参加联合国维和部队。2019年，仅中国出境旅游就达到1.69亿人次，每年消费额超过1,300亿美元，这一数字还有望继续增长。80年代中期，当我跟随政府代表团乘坐商务舱旅行时，很少看到非白人的面孔，如今情况正好相反。
经济增长
中国国内生产总值年均增长近10%，8亿多人成功脱贫。同时，卫生、教育和其他领域的情况也显著改善。中国现在是一个中高收入国家。2020年，中国是唯一一个实现增长的主要经济体，2021年第二季度中国经济增长18.3%。尽管疫情导致部分经济部门衰退，但复苏很快，关键是迅速控制疫情。中国避免了一些西方国家所采取的自由放任、听天由命式的做法，很早就实行了严格的防控措施。疫苗接种十分高效，到六月末中国已完成近10亿剂次本地产疫苗的接种。与此形成鲜明对比的是，一些国家还在困境中挣扎，幻想着疫情有所改善，中国已恢复到一切如常。中国还向世界各地100多个国家提供了逾4.8亿剂疫苗，向斯里兰卡捐赠了270万剂。
麦肯锡全球研究所的研究表明，随着亚洲占全球贸易、资本、人口、知识、运输、文化和资源的比重逐渐增加，全球重心正大幅度地向亚洲转移。在后新冠疫情的世界，所有迹象都说明这一趋势只会增强。在全球八种跨境流动中，只有废弃物是以相反的方向流动，这表明中国和其他亚洲国家减少或停止从发达国家进口洋垃圾的决心。中国2017年停止进口洋垃圾。有些国家，包括菲律宾、泰国、越南、新加坡和马拉西亚，都已开始向欧洲来源国退回洋垃圾。这在两代人以前是不可想象的。
中巴经济走廊助力巴基斯坦开发能源和基础设施。截至目前，中国已在巴基斯坦投资250亿美元，为瓜达尔港创造了75,000个就业岗位。
根据世界银行数据，印度营商便利度排名已升至63位。中国位列31。新冠疫情带来的失常在历史长河中将会一闪而过。新西兰和新加坡位居前列。澳大利亚和新西兰将日趋被吸引到亚洲的竞争阵营中来。改善幅度最大的群体还包括印度、巴基斯坦和孟加拉这三个次大陆人口大国。斯里兰卡拥有丰富的自然和社会优势，需要搞清楚是什么在阻碍它，弄明白是什么使其他亚洲国家蓬勃发展。我所想到的阻碍因素包括税收和行政体系低效、腐败、缺乏透明度，缺乏充满活力高瞻远瞩的管理者、政策不确定和错失良机等等。
世界前30个最大城市有21个在亚洲，世界10个游客最多的城市中有4个在亚洲。亚洲特大型城市出现的商机令人眼花缭乱。现在全球售卖欧洲奢侈品牌的最大店铺位于亚洲。缅甸的商业首都仰光2017年吸引的知识密集型绿地外国直接投资额达26亿美元，而2007年时还近乎为零。缅甸的进步很可能受国内动荡影响，但似乎得到了邻国适当的保护。
东亚的中国和韩国，东南亚的印尼、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国和越南，南亚的孟加拉、印度、巴基斯坦和斯里兰卡，西亚的土耳其，共占该大陆五分之四以上的人口和收入。日本为高收入国家，50年前就实现了工业化。
国内生产总值的增长
虽然今日中国的国内生产总值的增长有所放缓，但已超过14万亿美元。印度为2.6万亿美元。在过去的8年中，中国经济以每年6%的速度扩张，为全球增长贡献约30%。印度经济以5%的速度增长。虽然印度经济也因新冠疫情放缓，但人口更年轻的印度有望在2050年左右超越中国经济。东盟地区有6亿人，GDP达2.8万亿美元。东盟在经济、技术方面大步前进，成为一个有吸引力的合作伙伴，也是域外国家的一个榜样。在美国退出《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（TPP）后，《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）得以达成，为区域经济合作创造了更多机遇。美国也许还会重新考虑其决定。中国长期以来一直在推动达成《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》，该协定还覆盖日本、韩国、澳大利亚、新西兰和10个东盟国家。本地区的技术进步令人叹为观止。日本的志摩秀夫率先提出高速铁路的概念，中国已有38,000公里高铁轨道纵横交错。今天类似的轨道开始将东南亚（更不用说中亚和欧洲）与中国联通。《亚洲铁路网协定》起草者最初的梦想似乎正在成真。
亚洲在如此短的时间内实现的经济转型几乎史无前例。人均收入的提高改善了社会发展指标。识字率和预期寿命显著提高。对技术的熟练掌握在大部分东亚和东南亚国家已司空见惯。
“一带一路”倡议
习近平主席2013年启动旗舰性“一带一路”倡议,目前覆盖逾140个国家和32个国际组织，截至2017年囊括世界65%的人口和全球40%的国内生产总值。中国承诺向非洲大陆提供600亿美元的项目融资。中国与“一带一路”国家的贸易额超过6万亿，与非洲贸易额在过去20年间，从约100亿美元飙升至约2000亿美元。2018年9月在北京举办的中非合作论坛非洲领导人的出席人数几乎是两周后在纽约举行的联合国大会的两倍，这恰恰反映出了不断变化的力量对比。
“一带一路”倡议提出以来不断完善，习近平主席明确提出了指导方针。“绿水青山”成为标语。现在“一带一路”强调绿色发展、绿色能源和绿色金融。中国将于2030年前达到碳排放峰值，到2060年实现碳中和。从工业革命伊始，地球就一直被过度开发，中国将为地球缓解压力做出重大贡献。中国已停止基于化石燃料的能源开发，并将停止对此类开发进行融资。中国的领导地位必将对其他“一带一路”国家的政策制定产生影响。可再生能源相关的新产业将涌现，创造新的就业机会。新材料将被开发，石墨烯就是其中之一。
人工智能将在后疫情复苏中发挥很大作用。学生和研究人员，包括医务工作者，在疫情期间都只能在网上工作，这种模式将继续甚至强化。对人工智能的依赖会变得更为普遍。鉴于当下中国正在全力采用人工智能，中国为充分利用此类技术做好了最佳准备。
随着贸易和投资取代对非援助，再加上中国和俄罗斯业已产生的影响力，美国和欧洲多边贷款机构也正在将更多资金投向非洲。
亚洲的多样性
要认识到，亚洲的多样性超乎想象。不同国家在地理面积、国内历史、宗教文化、殖民遗产、民族主义、自然资源、人口规模、收入水平和政治体系等方面都存在巨大差异。经济体对市场力量和开放程度的依赖在不同国家和不同时期有很大差异。
同样，亚洲各国政治和意识形态也往往大为不同，从共产主义、有资本主义特色的社会主义到国家资本主义，凑凑合合的民主和强盗资本主义。亚洲国家发展道路不同，发展程度不一。各国很早就意识到，没有一刀切式的解决方案。
不断增长的投资和高储蓄率，加上教育尤其是职业教育的普及，是促成亚洲表现突出的根本性因素。这些因素将在后疫情时代亚洲开辟复苏之路的过程中发挥突出作用。快速的工业化推动了通常以出口驱动的增长。协调一致、深思熟虑的经济政策包括对外政策也发挥了作用。韩国和新加坡在追求国家发展目标的过程中协调各部门政策，用胡萝卜加大棒政策推动议程，用仅仅50年的时间就成为工业化国家。中国效仿这些发展型国家，成效卓著。越南在二十年后也走上了同样的道路。中国和越南都有强有力的一党执政的共产主义制度，可以有效协调和实施政策。
政府的作用
成功的亚洲经济体逐渐接受了开放。融入世界经济基本都是审慎的战略之举，并非被动地加入。贸易政策让出口自由，但经常对进口限制。贸易政策往往旨在鼓励本地制造和技术转让。政府对外国投资的政策是由国家发展的优先事项决定的，并非随意制定。虽然开放对成功的工业化是必要条件，但不是充分条件。开放只有与产业政策相结合才能促进工业化。
政府在亚洲的转型中发挥了至关重要的作用。政府是推动者和支持者。政策是各国政府精心制定的。亚洲的成功在于通过协调国家与市场之间的平衡，来管理国家与市场间这种不断变化的关系。
在过去，国家和地区是通过利用可耻的奴隶制、殖民剥削和金融经济控制实现繁荣。而东亚特别是中国，靠贸易实现小康。“一带一路”倡议赋予了我们实现繁荣的又一个可能性。
翻译/编辑 | 丽娟
译审 | 许成之
设计 | 大 米