提升“乌干达制造”的全球价值

根据官方数据，农业对国家经济的贡献份额从1980年代的70％下降到2007年的24％，并在2017/18财年进一步下降到20％左右。农业的地位被贡献率为50.3％的服务业所取代。服务业的增长主要来源于信息和通信行业、银行业的投资，石油和天然气产业的发展。但农业仍然是经济增长和就业增加的重要推动力。约70％的乌干达工作人口从事农业生产。农业投资不足和大量勉强自给的农民意味着农业部门在过去十年中的年平均增长率仅为2％，严重影响了乌干达的消灭贫困的进程。

乌干达的农业现状
尽管多年来表现不佳，但农业仍然是乌干达经济所依赖的重点产业。乌干达的主要农产品出口仍然是咖啡、棉花和茶叶，而乌干达是非洲主要的咖啡出口国。近年来，鱼类、鲜切花和玉米等非传统出口产品也成为乌干达主要农产品出口产品。

投资者认为乌干达在非洲拥有最佳的农业发展潜力，其特点在于昼夜温差较小，而且南部每年的两个雨季能带来多次丰收。据联合国粮农组织统计，乌干达肥沃的农业用地能够养活2亿人口。乌干达80％的土地是适合耕种，但只有35％土地已被开垦。2017/2018财年，农业占GDP的比重约为20％，占出口收入的43％。乌干达主要农产品包括咖啡、茶、糖、牲畜、乳制品、食用油、棉花、烟草、大蕉、玉米、豆类、木薯、甘薯、小米、高粱和花生。

灌溉基础设施的缺乏和肥料的有限使用使得农业生产容易受到雨量和害虫的影响，阻碍了农业的商业化发展。农业增长还受到优质包装能力不足、存储设施缺乏、运费高昂、农村地区全天候道路缺乏、土地使用权制度复杂和低效以及现代生产实践知识有限的挑战。乌干达生产者经常发现难以达到向发达国家出口货物所需的卫生和植物检疫标准。

乌干达农业拥有巨大的投资机会，包括生产、增值加工、标准合规和出口以及收获后处理等。在咖啡行业，还存在增加咖啡产量和国际市场出口量的空间。

乌干达是非洲领先的咖啡出口国，但其中对美出口仅占3％。乌干达政府制定了一项增加咖啡产量的详细计划，并制定了一项雄心勃勃的目标，即到2020年每年生产2000万袋咖啡。

制造业
乌干达的制造业包括加工食品、饮料、非金属矿物、木材和木制品、化学产品、皮革和鞋类、纺织品和服装等产品制造业。中小型企业占制造业企业的90％以上。虽然保持增长，但制造业仍然相对较小，并且由跨国公司的子公司主导。这主要归因于20世纪90年代中期的私有化，以及20世纪90年代初恢复稳定后，外国公司在纺织、钢铁、制革、装瓶和酿造等行业的大量投资。

最重要的部门是农产品（如咖啡）加工、日用消费品的生产以及饮料、电力和水泥的生产。

制造业面临着诸多挑战，例如高成本电力、进口产品的激烈竞争以及直接影响国内市场购买力的高贫困率。乌干达制造商协会主任穆巴拉克·基伦达·恩库图（Mubaraka Kirunda Nkuutu）说：“我们国家的电价仍居高不下，对于工业用户，一度电高达12美分。”

在国家发展规划蓝图中，乌干达政府强调制造业的强劲增长是经济增长的关键。穆塞韦尼总统在2017年的新年致辞中表示，由于进口量大于出口量，贸易逆差巨大，乌干达经济长期发展乏力。他说，现在到乌干达开始为国内和国际市场大规模生产工业制成品的时候了。他说，政府将开始推动大规模工业化，并指出“工业化是一种解放工具，也是实现繁荣的手段”。穆塞韦尼称，中国向乌干达出口了价值8.75亿美元的货物，而中国从乌干达进口的货物则仅为5470万美元。

解决工业化的制约因素
乌干达认为电力供应是工业化的主要瓶颈之一。2006年，当乌干达遭遇重大电力短缺时，工业化发展陷入了困境。结果，一些工厂转移到了邻国肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚，因为那里有可靠和廉价的电力。

从那时起至今，乌干达已在能源领域投资了30多亿美元。2012年，耗资9亿美元的布加嘎里水电项目开始运行，它为国家电网增加了250MW电力，并带来了稳定的能源供应。随后几个小型水力发电厂的开通运行导致能源过剩。2019年4月，装机容量183MW的伊辛巴大坝竣工，使全国装机容量达到1045MW。2020年，预计将启用由中国支持建设的600MW卡鲁玛水电项目。

尽管电力供应能力有明显提升，但制造业仍然存在诸多问题：制度支持薄弱、信贷渠道有限、技能不足、基础设施不足、技术水平低以及缺乏掌握科学、技术和创新能力的本土人才。

建筑和纺织行业
建筑业包括涉及居住、商业和工业房屋建造、维护和翻新的行业。在20世纪90年代乌干达经济自由化之后，建筑业经历了巨大的增长。新的私人和公共基础设施的建设主导了建筑业的投资。建筑材料的生产是建筑业的重要组成部分。但这一行业的企业仍然严重依赖进口机械、零配件和原材料。这主要是由于运营能力低，管理不善、流动资金不足以及工厂和生产设备落后。

虽然乌干达向卢旺达、南苏丹和刚果民主共和国东部出口建筑材料，但还在进口水泥、石灰、地板和墙砖以及玻璃等建材。

中国投资推动了乌干达的工业增长
中国现在是乌干达最大的外国直接投资（FDI）来源国。许多资源都流向制造业、农业和建筑业。

制造床垫和钢铁产品的天唐集团计划通过在中乌姆巴莱工业园建立工厂，将市场扩大到乌干达东部。天唐集团副总经理菲利斯·张表示，“乌干达是一个快速增长的制成品市场”。

乌干达中部的辽沈工业园内有食品加工厂和陶瓷厂。预计到2025年，这一工业园将创造超过16000个工作岗位。在乌干达东部的托罗罗区，广东-东送苏库鲁工业园预计将在第一阶段创造1700多个就业岗位。这座价值6.2亿美元的综合体将包括磷肥厂、钢厂、发电厂、硫酸厂和玻璃制造厂等。

有分析师表示，中国投资者为乌干达制造业的增长带来了急需的资金和技术。

“中国高度融入全球价值链（GVCs）。因此，乌干达与中国的产能合作使我们有机会提升在全球价值链中的地位，特别是农产品。棉花和纺织业是乌干达可以向中国学习并寻求技术升级以改变国内纺织工业发展的领域。这是因为我们将近95％的棉花作为棉绒出口，而中国将大部分棉绒用于国内生产以出口服饰。然而，只有当我们制定和实施有利于促进技术转让和有效整合全球资源以提升经济发展的政策时，才能做到这一点，而目前我们缺乏这种政策。”位于坎帕拉的经济政策研究中心（EPRC）研究员马丁路德穆努说。

英文版

Increase Global Value of “Made in Uganda"

By Ronald Kato  For China Investment  Journalist of Africa News in Uganda   Photos by Ronald Kato

Despite losing their place to the services sector as the number one contributor to Uganda’s GDP, the east African country’s primary industries are relevant and hold significant influence.
According to official figures, the share for example, of the agricultural sector’s contribution to the economy dropped from 70% in the 1980’s to just 24% in 2007 and fell further to about 20% in fiscal 2017/18. Agriculture was overtaken by services whose contribution stands at 50.3%. The growth of the services sector was mostly powered by investments in the information and communication sub-sector, banking and developments in oil and gas.
But agriculture remains an important driver of growth and jobs. About 70 percent of Uganda’s working population is employed in agriculture.
Under investment in agriculture and a high number of subsistence farmers have meant that the sector has registered an annual average growth rate of just 2 per cent in the last decade, seriously affecting Uganda’s poverty fight.

State of Uganda’s agriculture
Despite several years of underperformance, agriculture remains the sector on which Uganda’s economy is anchored. The country’s main agricultural exports remain coffee, for which Uganda is Africa’s leading exporter, cotton and tea.
In recent years, non-traditional exports such as fish, cut flowers, and maize have also ranked top on the list of Uganda’s main agricultural exports.
Investors consider Uganda’s agricultural potential to be among the best in Africa, with low temperature variability and two rainy seasons in the southern half of the country leading to multiple crop harvests per year. 
According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), Uganda’s fertile agricultural land has the potential to feed 200 million people.  Eighty percent of Uganda’s land is arable but only 35 percent is being cultivated.  Agriculture accounted for about 20 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2017/2018, and 43 percent of export earnings.
Uganda produces a wide range of food products including: coffee, tea, sugar, livestock, diary products, edible oils, cotton, tobacco, plantains, corn, beans, cassava, sweet potatoes, millet, sorghum, and groundnuts. 
Commercialization of the sector is impeded by a lack of irrigation infrastructure and limited use of fertilizer, which makes production vulnerable to variable rainfall and pests.  Sector growth is also challenged by the lack of quality packaging capabilities, the lack of storage facilities, high freight costs, the lack of all-weather feeder roads in rural areas, a complicated and inefficient land tenure system, and limited knowledge of modern production practices.  Ugandan producers often find it difficult to meet sanitary and phytosanitary standards required to export goods to developed countries.

Opportunities
There are significant investment opportunities in Uganda’s agriculture sector, including in production, value addition processing, standards compliance and export, and post-harvest handling.  In the coffee sector, there is space to increase coffee production and the amount of coffee exported to international markets. 
Uganda is Africa’s leading coffee exporter, but sends just three percent of its exports to, for example, the United States.  The government has developed a detailed plan to increase coffee production and set an ambitious target of producing 20 million bags of coffee annually by 2020. 
Manufacturing
The manufacturing industrial sector in Uganda consists of the production of processed foods, beverages, non-metallic minerals, wood and wood products, chemical products, leather and footwear, textiles, and wearing apparels.
Small-and medium-scale enterprises in the manufacturing industrial sector account for over 90 per cent of enterprises.
Although growing, the sector remains relatively small and is dominated by subsidiaries of multi-national corporations, largely attributed to the privatization era in the mid-1990s and heavy investment by foreign companies in sectors such as textiles, steel mills, tannery, bottling and brewing and cement factories, once stability returned to the country in the early 1990s.
 The most important sectors are the processing of agricultural products (such as coffee), the manufacture of light consumer goods, and the production of beverages, electricity, and cement.
The sector is faced by a number of challenges such as high costs of electricity, strong competition from imported products and relatively high poverty levels that directly impact on the purchasing power of the domestic market.
“Power tariffs remain high in our country with the cost of one unit going for 12 US cents for industrial consumers”, said Mubaraka Kirunda Nkuutu, the director of Uganda Manufacturers Association.

Opportunities
In its National Development Plan, the country’s planning blueprint, the Ugandan government has emphasized the growth of the manufacturing industrial sector as key to growth of a strong, resilient economy.
In his 2017 new year’s address, President Museveni said Uganda’s economy had long suffered due to importing more than what it exports to other countries, resulting in a huge negative balance of trade. He said that it was high time the country embarked on mass industrialization to produce for the local market and for export.
He said his government would embark on large scale industrialization, noting that “industrialization is an instrument of liberation and a means of achieving prosperity.”
Museveni cited China, which he said exports to Uganda goods worth US$875 million dollars while importing from Uganda goods worth US$54.7 million dollars. He termed the trade deficit as a hemorrhage of both money and jobs.

Addressing constraints to industrialization
Uganda identified electricity as one of the major bottlenecks to industrialization. The country’s efforts to industrialize took a dive in 2006 when the country was hit by a major power shortage. As a result, some manufacturers moved to neighbors Kenya and Tanzania to take advantage of reliable and cheaper power.
Since then, Uganda has invested over $3bn in energy projects. In 2012, the $900m Bujagali hydro project was switched on. It added 250MW to the national grid, bringing much needed stability to energy supply. The subsequent commissioning of several mini hydro power plants led to surplus energy being generated.
In April, Uganda commissioned the 183MW Isimba dam, bringing the country’s installed capacity to 1,045MW.
In 2020, the 600MW Karuma hydro power project, built with Chinese support is expected to be switched on.
Despite successes with electricity generation, manufacturing still battles weak institutional support, limited access to credit, inadequate skills, inadequate physical infrastructure, a low level of technology and a lack of indigenous capability for mastery of science, technology, and innovation capabilities.

Agro-processing, construction and textile sub-sectors
The agro-industrial sub-sector in Uganda consists of two broad categories, namely food processing and industries producing other agro-based products. The food processing industries mainly include the production of maize flour, vegetable oils, meat and dairy products, coffee and fish.
The construction industry consists of industries involved in the construction, maintenance and renovation of residential, commercial, and industrial structures.
The construction industry has experienced tremendous growth following the liberalization of the Ugandan economy during the 1990s. Investment into the sector has been dominated by construction of new private and public infrastructure.
The production of building materials is an important element of the construction sector. However, enterprises in the sector still heavily depend on imported machinery, spare parts and imported raw materials. This is largely due to operation below capacity, poor management, low levels of working capital, and obsolete plants and machinery.
While Uganda exports building materials to Rwanda, South Sudan and eastern Democratic republic of Congo, it also imports construction items including cement, lime, floor and wall tiles, and glass.

Chinese investment boosts Uganda’s industrial growth
China now ranks as the biggest source of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for Uganda. A lot of the resources have gone to manufacturing, agriculture and construction.
Tian Tang group which manufactures mattresses and steel products is planning to expand its manufacturing to eastern Uganda by setting up factories in the Sino-Uganda Mbale industrial park.
“Uganda is a fast growing market for manufactured goods”, said Felix Zhang, the deputy managing director of Tian Tang group.
The Liaoshen industrial park for example in central Uganda houses food processing outlets and a ceramics factory. The complex is expected to create over 16,000 jobs by 2025.
In Tororo district, also in eastern Uganda, the Guangdong-Dongsong Sukuru industrial park is expected to create over 1,700 jobs in its first phase.
Once completed, the $620m complex will house a phosphate fertiliser plant, a steel mill, a power plant, sulphuric acid factory and a glass making plant.
Analysts say Chinese investors bring much needed capital and know-how necessary for the growth of Uganda’s manufacturing.
“China is highly integrated in the Global Value Chains (GVCs). Uganda’s industrial capacity cooperation with China therefore gives us an opportunity to upgrade in the GVCs, especially in agro-industrial products. Cotton and textile sector is one area where Uganda can learn from China and seek to facilitate technological diffusion to transform the country’s textile industry. This is because we export almost 95 percent of our cotton as lint and yet China consumes most of its lint domestically and exports apparel and clothing products. This however, can only be done if we develop and implement a conducive policy which facilitates technological transfer and meaningful integration in the global economy, which is currently lacking,” said Martin Luther Munu, a researcher at the Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC) in Kampala.