导读
对于东南欧国家而言，除要高度重视能源的可用性、经济性以及能源系统的可靠性之外，还要规划出一条清洁能源转型之路，这样的任务尤其困难
●东南欧能源产业
●能源转型挑战
从地理范畴看，东南欧位于世界的两个地区之间，即黑海地区、中亚和东地中海地区，这里蕴藏着丰富的能源资源开发，并拥有西欧和中欧的广阔能源市场。二者在全球能源经济中都发挥着重要的作用。因此，东南欧正成为愈加重要的能源资源转运中心。然而，东南欧自身能源潜力的开发、及其对该地区各国社会经济发展的影响，却没有得到足够的重视。
东南欧能源产业
东南欧各国既不是主要的能源生产国，也不是能源消费大国。虽然有一些化石燃料的储藏，但这些资源并不丰富。该区域依赖进口能源和有限的本地资源，如水电、褐煤和生物质能。
根据国际能源署的统计，约85%的褐煤、20%的石油和50%的天然气来自本地。
褐煤在东南欧随处可得，是一种廉价但易造成污染的化石燃料，对该地区许多国家的经济发展至关重要。
虽然一些公司积极参与该区域的勘探进程，特别是在阿尔巴尼亚和亚得里亚海的近海区域，但东南欧的石油产量仍然很低。大部分已探明石油储量位于罗马尼亚，其次是阿尔巴尼亚、塞尔维亚和克罗地亚。由于产量较低，该地区的国家仍是石油净进口国。进口依存度约占该地区石油需求的80%。然而，得益于管道连接以及亚得里亚海沿岸的港口设施，这里的石油资源供应充足。
东南欧国家的国内天然气产量和需求相对较低。该地区已探明的天然气储量约为1860亿立方米，其中1050亿立方米在罗马尼亚，480亿立方米在塞尔维亚，250亿立方米在克罗地亚。然而，只有罗马尼亚生产天然气可以满足其80%的需求。该地区的天然气总依存度约为50%，大部分进口天然气来自俄罗斯。
该地区的主要天然气消费国是希腊和罗马尼亚，其次是克罗地亚、保加利亚、北马其顿共和国、塞尔维亚和斯洛文尼亚。波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那的天然气市场微不足道。
⬆ 2017年东南欧各国电力生产能量来源占比（%）（资料来源：作者根据国际能源署的能源统计数据计算）
罗马尼亚、希腊和保加利亚，这三个国家是最大的电力生产国，拥有该地区三分之二的发电厂。
保加利亚、罗马尼亚和斯洛文尼亚的电力供应最为多样化：通过天然气、煤炭、石油、生物燃料、水电和其他可再生能源（包括核能）进行发电。黑山只有两种类型的发电厂：火电厂和水电站。只有阿尔巴尼亚靠其三个主要的水电站可以生产出本国所需的全部电力。
纵观整个东南欧，燃煤火电厂在电力生产结构中占主导地位，发电量占总发电量的40%以上。
⬆ 该地区电力生产能量来源占比（%）（资料来源:作者根据国际能源署的能源统计数据计算）
第二大电力来源是水力发电（21%）。绝大部分水力发电站分布在克罗地亚、黑山和阿尔巴尼亚这三个国家。其中阿尔巴尼亚几乎是100%依靠水力发电。
核能的总占比约为13%，只有保加利亚、罗马尼亚和斯洛文尼亚（与克罗地亚联合运营）拥有核能发电的能力。
尽管在过去十年中欧盟国家出台了多种新能源补贴政策予以扶持，近年来五个欧盟成员国的可再生能源比例有所增长，但可再生能源仍然只占该地区电力生产的较小部分（9%）。
东南欧能源基础设施的关键部分（火电厂和水电站）建于50多年前。由于设施老化，再加上20世纪90年代设备维护水平落后，造成目前面临严重的技术和政策挑战。因此，这些基础设施迫切需要整体修复和更换。另外，再加上欧盟发布新的能源和气候发展目标，引发了对于该地区未来能源转型的对策讨论。
能源转型挑战
东南欧的所有国家均须遵守欧盟在能源领域的法律约束。保加利亚、希腊、克罗地亚、罗马尼亚和斯洛文尼亚为欧盟成员国，阿尔巴尼亚、波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那、科索沃*、黑山、塞尔维亚和北马其顿共和国为《能源共同体条约》缔约国。能源共同体的关键目标是在一个具有法律约束力的框架基础上，将欧盟内部能源市场规则和原则推广到其范围内的其他国家，包括东南欧国家。
除了确保能源供应安全外，欧洲能源政策的另外两个优先目标是确保价格公平的能源供应（基于统一的能源市场）和低碳经济——这三个主要目标形成了所谓的能源三元悖论。
欧盟是清洁能源的先驱者。早在2009年，欧盟就率先制定了雄心勃勃的能源和气候目标。欧盟能源政策框架的最新政策的首要目标是确保“所有欧洲人的清洁能源”，用前任气候行动与能源委员Miguel Arias Cañete的话来说，这是“欧盟委员会有史以来提出的最雄心勃勃的一项能源提议”。根据新目标，到2030年温室气体排放至少减少40%，可再生能源占能源总消耗至少达到32%，能源效率至少到32.5%。
之后，作为该委员会实施联合国2030年议程战略的一个组成部分，《绿色协议》已于2019年12月达成。该协议提出进一步提高气候目标——新的目标是到2030年减少55%的排放量（与1990年的水平相比），到2050年实现净零排放。由于这项工作还在进行中，其中一些政策是在2020年提出的，预计2021年还会有更多政策出台。
要实现“2050年第一个气候中立大洲”，需要公共和私营部门的大量投资。欧盟委员会希望，除了欧盟预算之外，各国预算也必须在这一转型中发挥关键作用。
在能源和气候领域，新的欧盟法律框架给所有相关国家带来新的挑战，但对于东南欧国家而言，除了要高度重视能源的可用性、经济性以及能源系统的可靠性之外，还要规划出一条使其能够实现气候和空气质量目标的道路，这样的任务尤其困难。
在这项任务中，该区域的一些具体情况使它有别于中欧和西欧。与西欧相比，东南欧的特点是能源贫瘠比例高，经济和财政能力较差，而且它正在从一种能源系统转型（从国有能源产业转型为市场化能源产业）升级到另一种转型（转型为气候友好型经济）的过程中。
如果这些新要求对最强大和最发达的欧洲经济体都具有挑战性，那么这些要求对东南欧国家是否可以实现？如果可以，这是否会以牺牲能源三元悖论的另外两个方面为代价？
然而，无论如何，东南欧的所有国家将必须找到解决方案，以便在今后几十年实现大致相同的一套目标。所有国家都将努力追求“平稳的社会和经济公平过渡以实现气候中立”，但是可能没有任何国家的能源转型过程会是相同的。每个政府都有责任决定如何平衡用于减少排放的技术，以适应本国经济的实际情况。
然而，认识到该区域的每个国家能源状况各不相同这一事实，有助于促进未来区域能源合作、交流和贸易。继保加利亚在2018年担任欧盟理事会主席期间所做的努力之后，东南欧应推动以区域性方式应对共同能源挑战、在跨区域层面统一口径、坚持欧盟即将提出的能源和气候倡议应当兼顾到各个倡议执行国家的具体国情，这样可能有利于东南欧所有国家的利益。
（本文所表达的意见仅为作者观点，不代表保加利亚能源部观点）
Energy transition challenges in South East Europe
Geographically, South East Europe (SEE) lies between two parts of the world, both of
which play an important role in the global energy economy – the Black
Sea region, Central Asia and the East Mediterranean, with their rich
energy resources and potential, and the vast energy markets of Western
and Central Europe. Thus, the region is becoming even more important
energy resources transit center. Nevertheless, insufficient attention is
paid to the development of the energy potential of South East Europe
itself and its significance for the socio-economic development of
countries there.
Energy sector in South East Europe
Countriesin the region are neither main energy producers, nor large consumers.
Although there are some deposits of fossil fuels, these resources are
not significant. The region depends on imports and limited local
resources such as hydropower, lignite, as well as biomass energy.
According to IEA statistics, local sources provide about 85% of lignite, 20% of oil and 50% of natural gas.
Lignite is widely available in the region, providing a cheap but polluting
energy resource and being key for the functioning of the economy for
many countries in the region.
Although a number of companies have been actively involved in the exploration
processes in the region, especially in Albania and the offshore zones of
the Adriatic Sea, oil production in South East Europe remains low. Most
of the proven oil reserves are in Romania, followed by Albania, Serbia
and Croatia. As a result of low production levels, countries in the
region remain net oil importers. Import dependency is in the order of
80% of the region’s oil needs. Nevertheless, it is well supplied through
pipeline connections, as well as port facilities on the Adriatic coast.
Domestic gas production and demand are relatively low in South East Europe. The
region has total proven gas reserves of about 186 billion cubic meters,
105 billion of which are in Romania, 48 billion in Serbia and 25 billion
in Croatia. However, only Romania produces some significant amounts of
gas and satisfies up to 80% of its needs. The total dependence of the
region is about 50% and most gas imports come from Russia.
The main gas consumers in the region are Greece and Romania, followed by
Croatia, Bulgaria, the Republic of North Macedonia, Serbia and Slovenia.
The gas market of Bosnia and Herzegovina is insignificant.
⬆ Electricity production in SEE countries by source, %, 2017（Source: Author’s own calculations based on IEA Energy Statistics）
Three countries – Romania, Greece and Bulgaria – are the largest producers of
electricity and possess two-thirds of the region’s power plants.
Electricity supply is diversified the most in Bulgaria, Romania and Slovenia: they
produce electricity from natural gas, coal, oil, biofuels, hydropower
and other RES, including nuclear. Montenegro has only two types of power
plants: thermal and hydro. Only Albania produces all of its electricity
in its three main hydropower stations.
Looking at South East Europe as a whole, coal-fired thermal power plants
prevail in the electricity production mix with more than 40%.
⬆ Electricity production in the region by source, %（Source: Author’s own calculations based on IEA Energy Statistics）
The second most used source in electricity production is hydropower (21%).
The largest share of hydro power plants is distributed among three
countries: Croatia, Montenegro and Albania. The latter has almost 100%
hydropower in its electricity production mix.
The total share of nuclear energy is about 13%, as capacities are located
only in Bulgaria, Romania and Slovenia (operating jointly with Croatia).
Renewable sources still make up a small part of the electricity production in the
region (9%), although some expansion has been observed in recent years
in the five EU member states, mostly due to introduction of support
schemes in the past decade.
Key elements of SEE energy infrastructure (thermal and hydro power plants)
were built more than 50 years ago. Aging, combined with insufficient
maintenance in the 1990s, is now creating serious technical and policy
challenges. Therefore, there is an urgent need for widespread
rehabilitation and replacement of the infrastructure. This, in
combination with the new EU energy and climate requirements, leads to
serious discussions on future energy mixes in the region.
Energy transition challenges
All countries in South East Europe are subject to the EU legal requirements
in the field of energy. Bulgaria, Greece, Croatia, Romania and Slovenia
as member states, and Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo*,
Montenegro, Serbia and the Republic of North Macedonia as Contracting
Parties to the Energy Community Treaty. The key objective of the Energy
Community is to extend the EU internal energy market rules and
principles to countries in its scope, including South East Europe on the
basis of a legally binding framework.
Besides ensuring security of energy supply, two other priority objectives of
the European energy policy are ensuring availability of affordable
energy (based on an integrated energy market) and decarbonizing the
economy – these three main objectives form the so-called Energy
trilemma.
The EU was a pioneer on clean energy: back in 2009, the EU was the first to
set ambitious energy and climate targets. The latest update of the EU
energy policy framework came first with the Clean energy for all
Europeans, which in the words of the previous Commissioner for Climate
Action and Energy, Miguel Arias Cañete, was “the most ambitious set of
energy proposals ever presented by the European Commission.” The new
targets envisage at least 40% cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, at least
32% renewables in energy consumption and at least 32.5% energy
efficiency by 2030.
Then, as an integral part of this Commission’s strategy to implement the
United Nation’s 2030 Agenda, the Green Deal has been agreed in December
2019. It envisages additional increasing of the climate ambition – the
new targets are reducing emissions by 55% (compared with 1990 levels) by
2030 and a net zero by 2050. Since it is a work in progress, some of
those policies were presented in 2020, and there are more expected in
2021.
Becoming “the first climate-neutral continent by 2050” will require considerable
investment from both public and private sectors. The Commission expects
that besides the EU budget, national budgets will have to play a key
role in this transition.
The new EU legal framework in the field of energy and climate is bringing
new challenges for all countries concerned, but it would be especially
difficult for countries like those in South East Europe to map the
pathway that will enable them to meet climate and air quality goals,
while keeping a strong focus on energy access and affordability, along
with reliability of the energy systems.
There are some specifics of the region which differentiate it from Central
and Western Europe in this task. SEE is characterized by high percentage
of energy poverty, lower economic and financial abilities compared to
Western Europe, and it is jumping from one energy system transformation
(from state-owned to liberalized energy sector) to another (towards a
climate-neutral economy).
If the new requirements are going to be challenging even for the strongest
and most advanced European economies, would they be achievable for the
SEE countries, and if yes, would that be at the expense of on the
account of the other two aspects of the Energy trilemma?
However, regardless of this, all countries in South East Europe will have to
find solutions for achieving more or less the same set of objectives
over the next decades. All countries will try to pursue “a smooth,
socially and economically equitable transition to achieving climate
neutrality”, but probably no national Energy transition will be the
same. It will be a responsibility of each government to decide on how to
balance the technologies they use to reduce emissions so that it is
acceptable for their economy.
Nevertheless, the fact that each country in the region has a distinctive energy
profile could be a good base for future regional energy cooperation,
exchange and trade. Following Bulgaria’s efforts during its Presidency
of the EU Council in 2018, it could be in the interest of all SEE
countries to promote a regional approach to the common energy
challenges, speak with one voice at supra-regional level and insist that
the forthcoming EU initiatives on energy and climate consider the
national specificities of the individual countries which will have to
implement them.
Disclaimer.The opinions expressed in this publication belong solely to the author,
and not necessarily to the Ministry of Energy of Bulgaria.
编辑 | 张 梅
翻译 | 钟锦秀
设计 | 大 米