欧洲绿色协议促中东欧转型升级

制定EGD落实措施

欧洲绿色协议（EGD）是欧盟委员会针对气候变化、经济增长和可持续发展制定的纲领性政策文件。该协议于2019年12月11日公布。三个月之后，世界卫生组织宣布新冠肺炎疫情在全球大流行。多位中东欧国家领导人的第一反应是，应取消或至少推迟执行EGD，直到疫情引发的经济危机结束为止。他们提出的理由是“现在没有资金投入绿色协议”。 

然而，现实却恰恰相反。EGD不但没有被停止，而且由欧盟委员会推出的一项7500亿欧元的经济复苏计划,在很大程度上受到EGD原则的影响。

那么，什么是EGD？为什么会引起如此多的讨论？首先，2019年12月11日公布的EGD体现了欧盟新经济政策的主要原则。EGD的落实，需要多行业设定规划，并就多个关键目标达成共识。 

EGD战略规划包括投资计划、生物多样性战略、农业和粮食战略以及其他行业规划。EGD最重要最具体的目标是到2030年将温室气体排放减少55％（以1990年为基准），使欧盟到2050年实现碳中和。而欧盟成员国要达成实现这一目标的协议，至少还需要一年时间。之所以过程如此漫长，是由于三个主要机构（欧盟委员会、欧盟议会和欧盟理事会）的27个成员国需要就诸多政策细节达成一致。行业协会和非政府组织在此过程中也起着非常重要的作用。即使所有国家在所有关键点上达成共识，各国政府、地区、城市和企业也将按照自己的方式实施这些措施。

大多数中东欧国家仍然普遍认为，EGD是一种负担，需要大量的公共资金，并会导致能源价格上涨。现在，这种观点变得温和了，因为较贫困的中东欧国家将从欧盟获得大量援助资金，以应对经济危机和实施EGD战略。

但是，仅关注如何获取落实EGD的公共资金是错误的。因为，除气候目标外，EGD还提出三个相互关联的目标：现代化、数字化和经济增长。中东欧国家越来越意识到，EGD资金可以帮助其提高生产率水平，经济发展向更高附加值产业转型。东欧不仅需要增长，更需要一种新型的增长，可以使人民提高收入，快速提高生活水平，缩小同西欧的差距，扭转大部分中东欧国家出现青年人才流失的形势。

EGD为中东欧国家提供发展的机会取决于两个关键因素，即资金和条件。欧盟将为能源转型和国家经济转型提供大量资金，但这些资金受到严格条件的约束，目前这些条件仍在谈判中。这些条件将防止资金用于填补预算缺口、以及国家对化石燃料的过多补贴和支持。

关键问题之一是如何替代传统煤炭。毫无疑问，传统煤炭即将被淘汰。现在二氧化碳价格接近40欧元/吨，无人相信煤炭产业还能生存更长时间。在过去的五年中，欧盟的煤炭生产量减少了一半（保加利亚减少了40％，罗马尼亚减少了50％，波兰减少了16％）。现在政府、能源公司和投资者面对的问题是，用什么取代它。

中东欧国家普遍认为，煤炭的主要替代品应该是天然气。在过去的几年中，天然气市场获得发展，并且更具流动性和竞争力。欧盟委员会针对俄罗斯天然气出口商Gasprom提起了一项不正当竞争诉讼，迫使该公司将天然气价格维持在接近市场平均价格的水平，即使是在某些市场机制不完善的国家。最近，天然气价格一直偏低。而且，与煤炭相比，天然气的二氧化碳排放量减少一半，使单位发电量的碳价降低了。近年来，人们对空气质量的要求越来越高，于是各国更青睐于天然气。而改善空气质量也是EGD提出的目标。

但是，天然气也存在一些问题。天然气是化石燃料，碳价的进一步上涨以及其他限制性政策的出台，可能会使昂贵的天然气基础设施变成搁置的资产。现在，欧洲的天然气价格较低，但是无法保证以后也是这种情况。而且，天然气燃烧时对空气的污染虽然比煤炭或生物质要少，但是对空气质量的影响却远非无害。

到目前为止，欧洲煤炭产量下降并不能证明人们普遍认可天然气是一种过渡燃料。在过去的五年中，只有44％的煤炭减少量由天然气发电取代，其中大部分由利用率更高的天然气发电厂生成。剩余的煤炭减少量被更高的能源效率和可再生能源的增长所取代。虽然天然气在能源转型中发挥着一定作用，近期可能会继续成为一个影响因素，但这种作用还不明确，并不是许多政府官员（主要是中东欧国家）所期望的。这样一来，在天然气发电和供热方面投资的风险将会增高。

天然气还有另一个缺点，即现代天然气发电技术创造的就业机会很少。EGD的一个重要目标是使能源转型具有公正性和包容性。每吉瓦煤炭发电量可确保数千个发电和采煤的直接就业机会，甚至还有许多间接就业机会，但每吉瓦新型天然气发电创造成的就业岗位数量不超过50个。由此，天然气产业成为提高就业率的障碍，而天然气的扩张可能引发工会和地方政府的强烈对抗。

EGD将推动更广泛、更多元的能源转型，替代正在消亡的煤炭行业。太阳能、风能以及提高建筑、交通和工业领域的能源效率对能源转型具有重要作用。EGD承诺对欧洲的数千万房屋进行绿色翻新。高效整合可再生能源的近零能耗建筑标准已成为所有新建建筑的强制性要求。建筑改造也可以创造良好的就业机会，这将使政府有效地降低失业率。

电力系统的进一步数字化、需求侧响应系统和能源合作社的扩展，在取代煤炭和碳密集型发电方面将发挥重要的作用。欧盟电力市场在整个欧盟及其他地区的整合仍将继续。在接下来的几年中，乌克兰、摩尔多瓦和巴尔干半岛西部将加入欧盟电力市场。土耳其可能会紧随其后。地中海、亚得里亚海和黑海的电力基础设施使不同的电力市场区域的联系更紧密。这样，加入和退出欧盟的中东欧国家，将部署更多的可变可再生能源发电设施，并高效利用可再生能源潜力。到2020年代后期，乌克兰、罗马尼亚、摩尔多瓦和黑海地区的巨大风能将得以采集。

从目前看，其中一些预测可能有点不切实际，但是，经过长期停滞后，可再生能源又重回中东欧。现在，它们不再像十年前那样受价格的影响，而是受市场的驱动。自给自足的太阳能产业正在蓬勃发展。特别是在许多南部国家，每兆瓦时太阳能发电价格较低，轻松击败传统能源市场。保加利亚和罗马尼亚已制定建设欧洲最大光伏电站的计划。越来越多的公司正安装太阳能屋顶，或根据自身需要建造小型光伏园区。这种情况将继续维持并呈扩大趋势。这也将导致能源合作社和紧密电力社区的兴起，目前它们尚处于起步阶段，但将会快速成长。欧盟通过立法主张分散式能源合作建设，这种趋势获得市场的支持。智能电力管理方案将不断完善，以更有效地利用能源。

中东欧国家具有悠久的工业传统，且劳动力成本低廉。这为电池、电动汽车、公共汽车、小型摩托车和自行车的国产或外包生产的快速发展提供了机会。EGD可以为东欧国家提供良好发展机遇，使其在低碳转型行业中建立更强大、更先进的产业。更多的中东欧国家和公司也在讨论加入氢能行业的计划。各行业正在制定自己的碳减排目标。罗马尼亚最大的钢铁厂Liberty Galati计划到2030年实现碳中和。乌克兰煤炭和能源巨头DTEK宣布了2040年的碳中和目标，保加利亚的主要工业区-Trakya经济区宣布了成为碳中和经济区的战略。这些目标不是由政府或任何欧盟协议设定的，而是由企业期待的未来零碳经济所决定的。

EGD不仅仅涉及能源和能源密集型产业。中东欧国家具有巨大的农业和生物经济潜力。生物质供热被广泛用于中东欧国家，但随着新技术的发展以及公众要求改善空气质量的需求不断增加，生物质的使用效率将大大提高，而且可能会以不同的方式使用。更多的生物质建筑、生物质沼气和生物质燃料将出现。一个大问题是如何保障粮食生产。目前，欧洲的补贴正惠及粮食生产大国。但是，未来我们会见到对小型高科技食品公司的投资、农业数字化和精细农作的发展。由于耕作和森林是影响温室气体排放和固碳的重要因素，因此中东欧国家可以在未来发展生物经济，这将受到欧盟气候政策强有力的指导。

《欧洲绿色协议》为中东欧经济体提供了千载难逢的机会。他们可以实现现代化，迅速摆脱煤炭依赖，使用更少的天然气，加速电力市场整合，扩展低碳领域、精细农作、新型建筑材料，实现大规模节能和可再生能源的大幅增长。对于中东欧国家以及外国投资者而言，目前的机会之窗依然敞开。但这种情况不会维持很长时间。

The Green Deal and the CEE

The European Green Deal (EGD) is the flagship European Commission policy
proposal for climate, growth and economic modernisation. It was
announced on 11 December 2019 exactly 3 months before the World Health
Organisation declared the Covid-19 a pandemic. The first reaction of
several political leaders from Central and Eastern Europe was that the
EGD should be scraped or at least postponed until the economic crisis
caused by the pandemic is over. The argument was “we don’t have money
now for a green deal”. 

Exactly the opposite happened. Not only the EGD survived but the large recovery
and resilience plan that pulled €750bn additional funds to the usual EU
budget is to a large extend shaped by the principles of the EGD.

So, what is the EGD and why is it so much discussed? First, the EGD
announced on 11 December 2019 is only a 24 page document that presents
the key principles of the new EU economic policy. Once the EGD was
published a dozen of sectoral strategies had to be launched and several
key targets agreed. 

The follow up strategic documents included an investment plan, a
biodiversity strategy, agriculture and food strategy and several others.
Probably the most important, or at least the most specific part of the
EGD is the target of 55% greenhouse gas reduction by 2030 (on 1990 base)
which should put the EU on the trajectory of climate neutrality by
2050. It took one year since the launch of the EGD to agree the 55%
target. It will take at least another year to agree, at least to some
extent, how this target will be achieved.

The reason for the lengthy process is the need to agree most of the policy
details between 27 member states that are represented by 3 main
institutions – the European Commission, the European Parliament and the
European Council. Industry associations and NGOs are also playing very
important part in the process. Even after all the countries agree on all
the key points the individual governments, regions, cities and
businesses will implement many of the measures in their own way.

The predominant view in most of the CEE countries remains that the EGD is a
burden that will require big public funds and will lead to high energy
prices. This view is now softened by significant EU grants that the
poorer CEE countries will receive in order to deal with the economic
crisis and to implement the strategies of the EGD.

To focus only on the public funding however would be wrong. Along with the
climate target the EGD has three other interlinked objectives –
modernisation, digitalisation and growth. CEE countries are increasingly
realising that the EGD related funds could help them shift their
economies into higher productivity and added value sectors. Eastern
Europe doesn’t just want growth, it wants a new type of growth which
could bring higher salaries, faster convergence with the living
standards of Western Europe and reversal of the brain and youth drain
that most of the CEE countries suffer from.

Where are the opportunities that the EGD is opening for the CEE countries?
They are determined by two key drivers – funds and conditions. The
European Union will provide significant funds for the energy and general
economic transition but these funds will be a subject of rigorous
conditions which are still under negotiation. These conditions will try
to prevent funds being used for filling budget gaps, excessive state aid
and support for fossil fuels.

One of the key issues continues to be how to replace coal. There is no
question anymore that coal is on the way out. With CO2 price close now
to €40/t nobody believes anymore that coal could survive much longer. In
the last 5 years coal generation in the EU has reduced by half
(Bulgaria by 40%, Romania by 50%, Poland by 16%). The question now or
governments, energy companies and investors is what would replace it.

There is a popular view in the CEE that the main replacement of coal should
be natural gas. Gas markets in the last few years have developed and
became more liquid and competitive. A competition case brought by the
European Commission against the Russian gas exporter Gasprom forced it
maintain gas prices close to average market prices even in countries
where market was not properly developed. New gas infrastructure has been
built. Gas prices recently have been low. And gas emits half the CO2
emissions compared to coal which reduces the carbon price per unit
generated electricity. Gas is favoured by air quality demands which have
been growing recently. And improving air quality is also an objective
of the EGD.

There are however problems with gas. Gas is fossil fuel and a further
increase of carbon price as well as other restrictive policies can turn
expensive gas Infrastructure into stranded assets. Gas prices are now
low in Europe but that cannot be guaranteed in the future. And while gas
is less air polluting fuel than coal or biomass it is far from harmless
to the air quality.

So far the reduction of coal generation in Europe does not prove the
popular concept that gas is a transitional fuel. Only 44% of coal
decline in the last 5 years have been replaced by gas generation, mostly
by higher utilisation of existing gas power plants. Investment in new
plants have been low. The rest of the coal generation decline is
replaced by increased energy efficiency and growth of renewable energy.
While gas is playing a role in the transition, and it is likely to
continue to be a factor in the near future, this role is far from
certain and might not be what many politicians, mostly in the CEE
countries, expect to be. That makes investment in gas generation and
heating more risky than many think.

Gas has another disadvantage – modern gas power generation technologies
create very few jobs. A key objective of the EGD is to make the
transition just and inclusive. However while 1GW of coal generation
secures several thousand direct jobs in generation and coal extraction,
and even more indirect jobs, 1GW new gas power capacity could be served
by less than 50 people. This makes natural gas a jobs destroyer and its
expansion could trigger strong confrontation by trade unions and local
authorities.

The EGD will push a much wider and complex replacement of the disappearing
coal industry. Solar and wind energy as well as increasing energy
efficiency in buildings, transport and industry will play an important
role. The EGD is promising a renovation wave which should lead to
retrofit of millions of homes across Europe. The Near Zero Energy
Building standard, that requires high efficiency and integration of
renewable energy is already mandatory for all new buildings. Buildings
retrofit is also a good and flexible job creator which will allow
governments to target effectively regions with bigger job losses.

Important role in replacing coal and carbon intensive generation will play the
further digitalisation of the electricity system, the expansion of the
demand side response systems and the energy cooperatives. The European
electricity market will continue its integration across the EU and
beyond. In the following years we might see the integration of Ukraine,
Moldova and the Western Balkans in the EU electricity market. Turkey
might follow. Power infrastructure across the Mediterranean, the
Adriatic and the Black Sea might bring closer the different electricity
markets zones. These trends will allow higher deployment of variable
renewable generation and utilisation of the high renewables potential of
the CEE countries, in and out of the EU. Later in the 2020s we would
probably see capturing the vast wind potential of Ukraine, Romania,
Moldova and the Black Sea. 

Some of these predictions might sound a
bit unrealistic at the moment. However we can see how that after a long
stagnation the renewables are back in the CEE. Now they are not driven
by preferential prices as was the case a decade ago but by the market.
Solar for self-consumption is booming. Especially in more southern
countries solar generation beats easily market prices per MWh produced.
Some of the largest European PV power plants have been planned in
Bulgaria and Romania. More and more companies are covering their roofs
with solar installations or building small PV parks for their own needs.
The trend will remain and expand. It will also lead to the emergence of
energy cooperatives and closed electricity communities which are now in
their infancy but they might grow fast. EU legislation favours
decentralised and cooperative energy installations and the market
support the trend. Smart electricity management solutions will grow in
support of more efficient use of energy.

CEE countries have strong engineering traditions and lower labour cost.
This opens the opportunity to expand fast home grown or outsourced
production of batteries, electric cars, busses, scooters and bicycles.
The EGD is a good opportunity for the East Europeans to build stronger
and more advance industry in sectors that will support the low carbon
transition. More CEE governments and companies are also discussing plans
to join the hydrogen industry. Industries are setting their own carbon
reduction targets. The largest steel plant in Romania, Liberty Galati,
aims to reach carbon neutrality by 2030. The Ukrainian coal and energy
giant DTEK announced carbon neutrality target for 2040 and the main
industrial zone in Bulgaria, Trakya Economic Zone declared its strategy
for becoming carbon neutral economic zone. These targets are not set by
governments or any EU agreement but by the business expectation that the
future is in the zero carbon economy.

The EGD is not just about energy and energy intensive industry. The CEE
countries have huge agricultural and bioeconomy potential. Biomass is
widely used in the CEE for heating but with new technologies and
increasing public pressure to improve air quality biomass will be used
in much more efficient and probably different way. We will see more
biomass in buildings, biogas and biofuels. A big question is how food
production will develop. Currently European subsidies are favouring
large grain producers. However we might see in the future investments in
smaller high tech food production companies, digitalisation of
agriculture and growth in precision farming. Since farming and forests
are significant factor in greenhouse gas emissions and sequestration the
CEE countries could develop in the future bioeconomy that is guided
much more strongly by the EU climate policies.

The European Green Deal is offering a one in a lifetime opportunity for the Central and
East European economies. They can modernise, move out of coal faster,
use less gas, accelerate the integration of its electricity markets,
expand their low carbon industries, precision farming, new building
materials, achieve mass energy saving and see sharp growth in renewable
energy. The window of opportunity for them and for foreign investors is
wide open at the moment. However it will not stay open for very long.

编辑 | 张    梅

翻译 | 钟锦秀

设计 | 大    米